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re: OFFICIAL Week 11 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 11/9/12 at 2:37 pm to bamafan425
Posted on 11/9/12 at 2:37 pm to bamafan425
Got SMU at 13 so I took it.
What I went with:
Tenn -3
Ole Miss -3
Louisville -3
Nebraska -7
SMU -13
USC -10
What I went with:
Tenn -3
Ole Miss -3
Louisville -3
Nebraska -7
SMU -13
USC -10
This post was edited on 11/9/12 at 2:41 pm
0
Posted on 11/9/12 at 2:42 pm to bamafan425
The Rebs need this win without a doubt, and I'm pulling for them for sure. Regardless, I can't help but laugh at ole miss backers. Wishing yall the best, but I'd have to stay away. Vandy isn't a bad team and have won the last 3/4 in the series. I'd be weary of this bet. Vandy has always been a thorn in our side for quite some time
This post was edited on 11/9/12 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 11/9/12 at 2:44 pm to Flatt2Flowers04
I know. And it's not my favorite bet, but I think ya'll pull this out at home by 7+.
Posted on 11/9/12 at 2:51 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Does anybody bet the favorites on big money lines (-300 to -500)? Have to have a big bankroll, and have to chose wisely given the upset risk. But it seems like it would pay off.
I do it all the time, and I think it's a solid play in college football. Choose wisely, though. You don't want to get too lose with it or you'll get burned. This is my fifth year betting on CFB, and the one strategy that I have found to be the most successful is taking the moneyline on teams that are playing against truly atrocious teams. I especially love it when you've got a team that simply can't score to save themselves.
This is why I tend to focus my analysis on which teams are the absolute worst rather than which teams are the best. And this is of course relative from conference to conference. So what I'm looking for is clear stratification. A team or two that is just appreciably worse than the remainder of the teams in the conference. You end up finding that from year to year some conferences are more gambling friendly than others. Basically, stratification is your friend. Parity is your enemy.
I almost lost my arse last night. I took FSU on the moneyline, risking 2K to win 400. I did not expect the game to be that close.
The biggest I've gone all year was Clemson against Wake Forest. I had Clemson for 150 ATS and 465 on the moneyline (risking roughly 2K to win 465). That was a stress-free $615 I won. Wake had no business being on the same field as Clemson. It's nice when it works out like that.
Posted on 11/9/12 at 2:52 pm to Flatt2Flowers04
If it was in vandy I might stay away, but think ya'll got this at home..
Posted on 11/9/12 at 3:10 pm to TigerBait2008
Pitt/UConn U43.5 2*
Pitt -3 1.5*
Pitt -3 1.5*
Posted on 11/9/12 at 3:12 pm to bobbyray21
Ha, the reason I asked is because I bet the ML on FSU too. I got so nervous I had to turn it off. I'm thinking about going with Georgia this week, but haven't seen the odds yet.
Posted on 11/9/12 at 3:22 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
Arizona St may put up points, but USC will put up at least ten more.
You might be right but I'll take +10 with the market at 8 or 8.5 now.
Posted on 11/9/12 at 3:45 pm to ChemE in the OP
Marquis Lee is supposed to be playing Defense this weekend for USC 
Posted on 11/9/12 at 3:47 pm to rocket31
WIN ½* Va Tech +13½
pending 1* Pitt -3
YTD: 25-11-0; +20½ units
pending 1* Pitt -3
YTD: 25-11-0; +20½ units
Posted on 11/9/12 at 4:09 pm to bamafan425
Careful betting Pitt tonight... They are 2-4 in last six ATS versus uconn.... Home dog on a Friday night is tough
I love the under tho
I love the under tho
Posted on 11/9/12 at 4:14 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Ha, the reason I asked is because I bet the ML on FSU too. I got so nervous I had to turn it off. I'm thinking about going with Georgia this week, but haven't seen the odds yet.
-650
Posted on 11/9/12 at 4:15 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
You might be right but I'll take +10 with the market at 8 or 8.5 now.
I got it last night at 9.
Posted on 11/9/12 at 4:25 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Ha, the reason I asked is because I bet the ML on FSU too. I got so nervous I had to turn it off. I'm thinking about going with Georgia this week, but haven't seen the odds yet.
I'm usually reluctant to put too much of my money on Mark Richt, who just isn't that good of a football coach*, but Auburn is a great team to play the ML against...because they're just atrocious offensively. I really don't see any way UGA loses that game.
I like the Kent St game quite a bit for both ATS and ML purposes. The ML was -275 last time I checked. Quite reasonable if you ask me.
I also like USC. I don't think they're losing to Arizona State. And ND DEFINITELY isn't losing to BC...but if you're not comfortable going in on -965, that's understandable. I actually don't mind going in on that because I actually don't think that BC has a snowball's chance in hell of winning that game.
*And has perfected the art of parlaying teams chock full of NFL talent into eventual 9-3 records.
Posted on 11/9/12 at 4:59 pm to bobbyray21
Georgia -14
Ole Miss -2.5
SMU -14
WVU +10
My weekend card so far. I'm not seeing much I like enough to lock in.
Ole Miss -2.5
SMU -14
WVU +10
My weekend card so far. I'm not seeing much I like enough to lock in.
Posted on 11/9/12 at 5:34 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
Mark Richt, who just isn't that good of a football coach*,
We can be friends.
Have said forever that Richt is one of the worst betting teams in the country love my Dawgs, but under this regime for a decade now, you will get burned almost anyway you try and bet them .
Except maybe 2nd halves against shite teams. But we can make community colleges think they are pulling off the upset of the century in the first half most of the time
Posted on 11/9/12 at 5:39 pm to Chef Leppard
Teased Pitt+1.5 and U48.5
Posted on 11/9/12 at 6:52 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
I do it all the time, and I think it's a solid play in college football.
So what ML's are you thinking about this week?
Posted on 11/9/12 at 7:01 pm to dcrews
Conn +3.5
Posted on 11/9/12 at 7:06 pm to BilJ
Is Collin Klein playing?
Kstate -7 looks good if so.
Kstate -7 looks good if so.
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