re: OFFICIAL Week 11 CFB bet thread™

Syracuse +1.5 over Louisville (Homecoming game for Ryan Nassib. Looking to break Big East +Syracuse all time passing records. Smells like a trap game.)

Boston College +19 over Notre Dame (Feels like 1993 all over again. I expect ND to win but you never know if BC shows up to play spoiler.)

Wisconsin -7.5 over Indiana (Monty Ball will be too much for Indiana.)

UAB +3.0 over Marshall ( Darrin Reaves has been a beast the past two weeks for UAB. Marshall sucks at stopping the run.)

Nevada +3.5 over Fresno State (This game will be a total shoot out. Expect like a 56-49 like score. Maybe the best non top 25 game of the week IMO.Lots of NFL scouts will be in attendance for this one)

Damn Shuke, we are all over the same games.

I posted all five of those in my leans late last night, most of them I am fairly confident of as well. Today I'm gonna go through and toss out ones that I can poke holes in, like Arizona since their QB is out.

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dgtiger3

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I almost pulled the trigger on TCU over Kansas State but just couldn't do it.

What's the play tonight? I really like Pitt -3. Don't think they come out flat from the Notre Dame game. UCONN defense is legit but they cannot move the ball for shite. Pitt has too much talent in that backfield and Tino Sunseri has been surprisingly efficient this year - 2,363 yards, 14-2 TD/INT ratio, all at a 68% completion mark. Haven't locked it in but it's looking to be the play

my plays this weekend:

Indiana +7.5
Washington +1
Pen State +8.5
WVU/OSU UNDER 78.5
Marshall -3
Ole Miss -3
Louisville -1.5

whats your units GHAZ?

I just bet the same every game. 1unit?

What you think of those picks?

That star DL being out for PSU (I think) kinda makes me worried about PSU... I just love them getting 8.5 points though... can't help it.. against an inconsistent turnover prone team no less.

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It's definitely a fair assumption. My spreadsheet, as well as rocket's, also initially had ULM last night. I didnt bet it, and instead took Arky St given ULM's injuries. My sheet also likes Maryland , but given they've lost 4 QBs this season, I wont be on that either. It's one of those things that is hard to adjust for, so you have to either decide to play it or lay off. I decided to keep it given the line is moving in the same direction.

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Like most projections, I assume your spreadsheet uses statistics from every game in the season. It's for that reason that most computer projections will have Memphis either even or slightly favored over Tulane.

I'm taking Tulane because they've been a better team than Memphis since Ryan Griffin has been back.

First two official plays of the weekend:

Ole Miss -2.5
UGA -14 (bought half)

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Trap spot for USC. Arizona St will put up points.

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What about this game makes it a trap spot for USC? They've dropped their last two; they need a win. And they're playing at home.

And while I do realize the importance of incorporating a "situational analysis" component when looking at games, I try to not to do so at the expense of other more important factors like the fact that USC is way better at football than Arizona State.

Arizona St may put up points, but USC will put up at least ten more.