re: Josh Hamilton agrees to terms with Angels 5 yrs/125 Mill

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Don't think he was speaking of actual insurance

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Some of these contracts, I think, are insured by Lloyd's of London or someone like that. But that would probably only apply to people who have had little injury history in their careers.

But I'm not well versed in this area.

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his contract to protect the team from a relapse or injury relating to relaspe?

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Pretty much any team does this now to protect themselves it seems. Yankees have it in ARods deal where if he misses a percentage of games they are covered for 80% of his salary. Angels would probably have something similar that if he misses games due to relapse and can't play or a career ending injury they are covered in his contract. He has never had a major injury in his career just minor things that have caused him to miss games.

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His body is chemically changed. No one would risk that. Believe me.

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If he has been clean for the past several years his body is fine... his vital organs may be a different story

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Naysayers also often report as fact that Hamilton's past crack cocaine addiction has made his body brittle and more susceptible to injury in the present. But according to medical experts who specialize in the effects of recreational drug abuse on the body, the relationship between Hamilton's physical maladies and his history of crack addiction is tenuous at best, and most likely nonexistent.

While crack cocaine abuse has devastating effects on nearly every major organ in the body, medical experts say the damage is mostly short-term and typically reverses itself rapidly.

"The human body has an amazing capacity for dramatic and near complete recovery within a matter of weeks and months," said Dr. David Sack, M.D. and CEO of Elements Behavior Help and Promises Treatment Center in Los Angeles. "That's the good news."

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While Hamilton has had at least two one-night relapses with alcohol since he got sober in October 2005, by all accounts he has not touched cocaine in more than seven years.

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Hamilton has certainly been injury prone. In his six years as a major league player, he has missed time with a sprained wrist, a trunk strain, a sports hernia, a broken leg, a rib cage fracture, an Achilles strain, patellar tendinitis and back stiffness, among other things. Cocaine puts the human body in an excited state that is less likely to respond to painful feedback. Muscles tighten and fear of potential danger diminishes, but that's only when a person is using.

"We don't see any evidence that crack abuse is related to dysfunction of joints and muscles long term," said Dr. Wilson Compton, M.D., director of the division of epidemiology research at the National Institute of Drug Abuse. "It just isn't there."

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"Poor nutrition could lead to brittle bones but because he's a professional athlete he's had access to the best doctors and foods since he's been in recovery," said Dr. Elizabeth Waterman, a psychologist at Morningside Recovery in Newport Beach, Calif. "He does have a history of injuries, but there's no evidence of a link."

Since Hamilton smoked crack cocaine and doesn't appear to have sustained any permanent brain, heart or lung problems, experts say the only drug-related physical maladies that could sideline him down the road would likely involve his teeth, lips or gums. He left a game with an abscessed tooth in August 2008, and underwent surgery for multiple root canals in the spring of 2010. While his teeth problems are likely to continue, it is unlikely that a dental-related injury would sideline him for more than a couple of days.

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LINK

That's only his best comparison if you assume he falls off.

He could be David Ortiz, Paul konerko, manny ramirez, frank thomas, or Jim Thome all who had excellent 36+yr old old seasons. I'm sure there are more, just gotta run tho

Eta: let's also keep in mind Guerreo was an NL player. Look at the guys above and tell me what they have in common.

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That's only his best comparison if you assume he falls off.

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no, I want to b-ref to look at his closest statistical comps through age 31. #1 was a 1940's ballplayer, and not really that helpful for comparison purposes. #2 was Brian Giles, who was a useful DH at age 36. #3 was Pedro.

Hamilton is nothing like David Ortiz as a ballplayer. Ortiz was a big fat guy who could barely play the field. Konerko and Thome were both one-dimensional 1st basemen, as well (though Thome was a pretty great player). I was choosing a guy who was statistically similar, as well as similar by position and somewhat physically.

I wasn't just randomly picking out players. Sure, there are good players at age 36. but let's look at those who were most similar to Hamilton at age 31.

Does anyone know what Hamilton's last contract was in terms of years and overall money?

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Does anyone know what Hamilton's last contract was in terms of years and overall money?

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2 years, 24 million.

Late start, similar careers, same position... cocaine habit.

But it's not random to look at similar players to get a range of what to expect on current players. That's how projection systems largely work, and they've been largely accurate (this is the basic theory of Nate silver and PECOTA).

Do I think Hamilton will be Pedro Guerrero? No. But you said "worst case". And that's his worst case. Kevin Mitchell is also on his top ten list of age 31 comps, and he was similarly terrible ate age 36.

OTOH, Moises Alou was pretty great at age 36, and was a productive player until his 40's. Earl Averill is a turn of the century player showing up on his comp list, but he went to the Hall of Fame. He also aged real well.

His most LIKELY aging pattern is Brian Giles or Dante Bichette (mediocre DH). It's a pretty huge range, of course. But to present the average course as Hamilton's "worst case" is just not true. That's his average case. I think we can set expectations at "Hamilton should be a mediocre DH type by age 36". Still grossly overpaid, but worth it if you win the World Series. It is a near certainty Hamilton will be overpaid in year five. A success for the Angels is a great 2-3 years and a title, before the decline really kicks in.

The Angels certainly expect him to be grossly overpaid in the final year of the deal.