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re: Is The Cy Young Just An ERA Contest These Days?
Posted on 8/19/26 at 9:59 am to geauxEdO
Posted on 8/19/26 at 9:59 am to geauxEdO
Which is why FIP is the best macro view metric that we have and has been found to be the best indicator of future run prevention
Obviously doesn't make it the single metric to ever use but is the "best" single one we have right now
Has even been shown to be a better indicator than xwOBA
Obviously doesn't make it the single metric to ever use but is the "best" single one we have right now
Has even been shown to be a better indicator than xwOBA
1
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:06 am to Zendog
quote:
great pitchers find a way if their team isn't scoring
It’s impossible to win 0 to -1
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:19 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
Which is why FIP is the best macro view metric that we have and has been found to be the best indicator of future run prevention
There’s certainly a strong correlation between FIP and Runs Allowed, but I have a hard time not including balls in play. inducing weak contact, getting guys to roll over, miss the sweet spot on the barrel, is all a huge part of the game. also, i think fielding and luck eventually wash out in the end, especially at the MLB level. fielding is definitely a bigger factor the further down you go (college, HS).
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:34 am to geauxEdO
I dont disagree which is why its smart to use a number of different stats to come to a conclusion
I think we can all agree wins and losses aren't one of those stats
I think we can all agree wins and losses aren't one of those stats
Posted on 8/19/26 at 4:56 pm to WonPercent
quote:
Miz is impressive as hell and fun to watch, but since when are wins and losses not a factor?
Because you can be a dominating pitcher but still have a shitty W/L record if the team around you sucks.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:47 pm to WonPercent
quote:
Yeah, you're right, wins and losses don't matter at all in sports. Dumb arse pos.
You can do better, try making an argument as to why more wins correlate to who's the best pitcher.
Sounds easy, but it's very difficult to do without using the other, much more accurate (and more widely used) stats such as ERA, WHIP, K/9, and total IP.
Wins have relatively (RELATIVELY) low correlation to pitcher skill as so much is outside of the pitcher's hand. For example, a 4.00 ERA pitcher would have dramatically different records if he pitched for the best offense in the league vs. the worst. His rate stats would all likely be similar unless the difference in offense caused some change in managerial philosophy.
Now imagine a 6.00 ERA pitcher. If they play together, he's going to have a worse season than the 4.00 guy, no matter which team he plays for. If they play for different teams, he will still likely finish with a worse record than the 4.00 guy, even if he has a ton of run support.
It's just not a great metric logically, there are better options to use for the Cy Young
This post was edited on 8/19/26 at 8:48 pm
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:06 pm to Bigdawgb
quote:
Wins have relatively (RELATIVELY) low correlation to pitcher skill as so much is outside of the pitcher's hand.
It was a better metric when you were expected to complete every start… quarterback wins and losses aren’t as devalued because they do “complete” most starts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:32 pm to Zendog
quote:So they have to hit too?
great pitchers find a way if their team isn't scoring
What about when the team’s garbage defensively, is he supposed to play multiple positions simultaneously?
I thought we were past retarded W/L takes but clearly a ways to go
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:46 pm to RemouladeSawce
Run support capacity
Run support timing
Bullpen strength
Inherited-runner outcomes
Team defense
Quality of opposition hitters
Quality of opposition starter
Managerial decisions / pitcher usage
Pretending a metric that’s fundamentally reliant on so many external elements is an appropriate way to evaluate a pitcher is insane. It took long enough for people to realize it was not a meaningful metric. We’re not going back
Run support timing
Bullpen strength
Inherited-runner outcomes
Team defense
Quality of opposition hitters
Quality of opposition starter
Managerial decisions / pitcher usage
Pretending a metric that’s fundamentally reliant on so many external elements is an appropriate way to evaluate a pitcher is insane. It took long enough for people to realize it was not a meaningful metric. We’re not going back
This post was edited on 8/19/26 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 8/19/26 at 11:22 pm to Zendog
quote:
Being able to win games 5-4 when you don't have your best stuff is more important then losing games 1-0 when you do.
Huh? I don’t have a dog in the fight, but sounds like the guy with an era like .75 lower has his good stuff much more often than the other guy. Let’s not make it rocket science.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 11:36 pm to WonPercent
No
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