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Posted on 8/18/26 at 5:44 pm to WonPercent
What a strange post
Posted on 8/18/26 at 5:45 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
WestCoastAg
Another post that adds nothing to the thread.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:01 pm to WonPercent
Should be a mix of ERA and WHIP
Wins mean nothing for a pitcher worth
Wins mean nothing for a pitcher worth
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:23 pm to WonPercent
quote:
but since when are wins and losses not a factor?
For Cy young probably over a decade.
FIP is probably the most used stat
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:24 pm to CarolinaSandstorm
great pitchers find a way if their team isn't scoring
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:29 pm to WonPercent
quote:
but since when are wins and losses not a factor?
Since Felix Hernandez in 2010.
That's when the voters finally caught up with the rest of us.
quote:
Meanwhile, Chase Burns is 14-2 playing for a Reds team that's 5 games under 500 and he's 50-1 to win the Cy.
For Burns to win three things need to happen. 1) He keeps pitching at current level or better. 2) Sale falls off significantly. 3) Miz completely falls apart.
The odds of all three of those scenarios playing out and not very good.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:31 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Wins mean nothing for a pitcher worth
Not true. I don’t understand why people act like it’s so black and white.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:39 pm to cubsfan5150
I’m willing to learn. What do wins tell you about a pitcher that WHIP, FIP and ERA can’t?
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:41 pm to cubsfan5150
quote:
Wins mean nothing for a pitcher worth
Not true.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:45 pm to cubsfan5150
quote:
Not true. I don’t understand why people act like it’s so black and white.
Win/Loss is a result of a myriad of other factors. It’s technically possible for a guy with a 0 ERA to never win a game while simultaneously being possible for a someone with an infinitely high ERA to never lose.
Now, you can use wins as an aggregate of those factors, but it will never come close to the full picture.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:01 pm to lsupride87
quote:
What do wins tell you about a pitcher that WHIP, FIP and ERA can’t?
You originally said wins say nothing of a pitchers worth. While I agree when it comes to relievers, we both know you can’t get a W as a starter without going 5+. If you can never last long enough to get there, how valuable are you?
I’m obviously not looking at this in a silo. Great pitchers are still likely to pile up wins and while W/L is more of a result of everything else, more times than not, it is indicative of going deep in games, which you don’t typically do if you’re consistently putting runners on base.
A good comparison would be to think about W/L in terms of leading and lagging indicators.
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:02 pm to Wayne Campbell
quote:
It’s technically possible for a guy with a 0 ERA to never win a game while simultaneously being possible for a someone with an infinitely high ERA to never lose.
But it doesn’t happen when you stretch that ERA over the course of a season.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:17 pm to cubsfan5150
quote:
we both know you can’t get a W as a starter without going 5+. If you can never last long enough to get there, how valuable are you?
True. But if you only go 5, face the order only twice, and bounce having given up either 0 or 1 runs, but still need the pen to get the last 12 outs and wind up with a bunch of NDs—is that more valuable than the guy who goes 7, faces the order another time, and gives up 1-3 runs and has more wins despite a slighter higher ERA because he pitched 2 extra innings and maybe gave up another run or 2 another time through the order without his top stuff at the end? He saved the pen 6 outs.
Wins definitely aren’t nearly as important as they used to be regarding Cy Young. But ERA and WHIP can’t be the ONLY factors either. They’re the most important, but Innings pitched, Ks, and wins should all factor. Wins maybe the least, but to say they don’t matter at all is ridiculous.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:41 pm to Hot Carl
quote:
if you only go 5, face the order only twice, and bounce having given up either 0 or 1 runs, but still need the pen to get the last 12 outs and wind up with a bunch of NDs—is that more valuable than the guy who goes 7, faces the order another time, and gives up 1-3 runs and has more wins despite a slighter higher ERA because he pitched 2 extra innings and maybe gave up another run or 2 another time through the order without his top stuff at the end? He saved the pen 6 outs.
That supposes that the starter is always the guy you’d rather have in the game than your first choice out of the bullpen (and second, and third)
In the old days, bullpen arms were just failed starters, but now, they’re developed to be bullpen arms
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:59 am to WonPercent
quote:Wins and losses are a stupid way to determine how good a pitcher is.
Yeah, you're right, wins and losses don't matter at all in sports. Dumb arse pos.
ERA is literally measuring how many runs a pitcher is giving up. How many runs your own team scores is what determines a pitcher’s wins and losses, which has zero to do with the pitcher’s pitching.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:18 am to WonPercent
Miz is the most dominant of the 3 & it’s pretty evident. ERA+ is the number you want to focus on here.
There isn’t a big enough discrepancy in wins for it to matter. The caliber of team you play on tends to play more of a factor anyway, all things equal.
There isn’t a big enough discrepancy in wins for it to matter. The caliber of team you play on tends to play more of a factor anyway, all things equal.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 9:27 am to cubsfan5150
quote:
But it doesn’t happen when you stretch that ERA over the course of a season.
Over the course of a season, usually a guy doing things well will accumulate more wins than a guy who doesn't. And a guy doing things well will accumulate more wins than losses, but the fact remains that a pitcher cannot WIN a game.
But Paul Skenes led the league in ERA (1.97) and was second in WHIP (.95) last year with a 10-10 record. He wasn't significantly lower in average innings pitched per start, he was actually 4th in total innings pitched.
No one with more than 10 wins in the NL last year had an ERA lower than 2.08. A few even had ERA's north of 4.50.
The whole premise of this thread is a guy white knighting for his boy. Complaining that someone with 14 wins isn't seen as a more viable Cy Young candidate than guys with 12. While ignoring that the league leader has 16 wins, more strikeouts, and a comparable ERA.
Christopher Sanchez should at a minimum be above Chris Sale in terms of odds to win the NL CY.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 9:48 am to WonPercent
the goal of pitching is to not let up runs. therefore, ERA is by far the most important pitching stat.
you can certainly look at other stats as secondary metrics like WHIP, IP, K/BB, but none of those measure run scoring. WHIP, for example, is a great metric but a HR weighs the same as a BB when looking at WHIP. Strikeouts are cool and an effective way to get outs, but you can still let up runs while striking 3 guys out in an inning.
I think Innings Pitched is a little underrated these days because how valuable are you if you can only go 4-5 innings per start? you’re leaving the bullpen to cover half the game, so your contribution to preventing runs is limited. Not to mention the strain you put on the bullpen.
you can certainly look at other stats as secondary metrics like WHIP, IP, K/BB, but none of those measure run scoring. WHIP, for example, is a great metric but a HR weighs the same as a BB when looking at WHIP. Strikeouts are cool and an effective way to get outs, but you can still let up runs while striking 3 guys out in an inning.
I think Innings Pitched is a little underrated these days because how valuable are you if you can only go 4-5 innings per start? you’re leaving the bullpen to cover half the game, so your contribution to preventing runs is limited. Not to mention the strain you put on the bullpen.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 9:59 am to geauxEdO
Which is why FIP is the best macro view metric that we have and has been found to be the best indicator of future run prevention
Obviously doesn't make it the single metric to ever use but is the "best" single one we have right now
Has even been shown to be a better indicator than xwOBA
Obviously doesn't make it the single metric to ever use but is the "best" single one we have right now
Has even been shown to be a better indicator than xwOBA
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