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Message
re: How can coaching at the highest levels be persistently so bad?
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:17 pm to JoeHackett
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:17 pm to JoeHackett
quote:
I don't think they changed much at all.
28-9 3rd Quarter 2:06
Pass for 9yds
Run for -1 (Holding #70)
Pass Incomplete
Sack
28-12 4th Quarter 9:44
Run for 8yds
Run for 1yd
Sack fumble
28-20 4th Quarter 5:53
Pass for 39 yds
Run for 2 yds
Pass for 27yds
Run for -1
Sack
Pass for 9yds (Holding #70)
Pass Incomplete
3 Incredibly costly sacks and 2 holding calls pretty much sealed their fate.
This!!
Hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20. The two plays that are being dissected are the pass on 3 and 1 up 28-12 and the 2nd down pass in NE territory up 28-20.
I think Quinn was trying to remain agressive and not just let the Pats come back while he quietly conceded a 3 and out the rest of the way.
Atlanta had one of the best offenses in the league this year, if not the best. They had the reg. season MVP at QB who hadn't thrown an INT in two months or lost a fumble in three months. On 3rd and 1 they could have tried to run for a yard into the teeth of a NE defense that was expecting run. Instead, they tried to outwit NE and pass with a QB who hadn't turned the ball over in the last 6 games. Unfortunately they didn't execute. The RB misses a block and Ryan fumbles.
Then, up 28-20 rather than feebly run and almost assuredly give the ball back to NE with plenty of time for a game tying drive, they remain aggressive and get into FG position largely on two huge pass plays. On first down they run for a loss. NE still has two TOs and the 2:00 warning. On second down, after just hitting two pass plays for 66 yards, they try to catch NE in a "rubber down" (could likely be run or pass). A first down there makes NE used their TOs and bleed more of the clock. Unfortunately, Ryan takes a horrible sack. On third down they complete a pass to at least get back into FG range, only to have a penalty erase the gain.
Who's to say if they just sit on the ball and run they don't give the ball back to NE time after time to make a comeback. Two sacks are the difference in the game. But when your QB has been flawless for two months, is it that much of a risk to put the ball in his hands and assume he will make the right decision as he had for the last two months.
1
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:22 pm to shel311
quote:Yeah. It's amazing that it's essentially the most relevant thing, yet still poo pooed by most people. If the decisions are good (the inputs), then the output over time will be superior as luck will even it's way out. I'd go so far as to say the outcome of any specific play is almost literally irrelevant to the quality of the decision.
Process vs Result, I mention just that al the time on here.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:24 pm to Alt26
quote:Me. They were well within FG range with a killer kicker. 11 pts margin wins the game. Another thing you didn't mention was repeated snaps of the ball with gobs of time remaining on the play clock. Just utterly piss poor all around.
Who's to say if they just sit on the ball and run they don't give the ball back to NE time after time to make a comeback
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:25 pm to Big Scrub TX
It requires coaches to be much more profecent in statistics and being willing to listen to the numbers even when it goes against convention wisdom.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:27 pm to navy
quote:
by navy
Great read navy! Thanks for the link!
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:27 pm to navy
quote:
Yeah ... because if there's one thing CLM was well-known for ... it was being pass-happy and refusing to run the ball.
Touche. Obviously I was referring to the general boneheadedness in managing a crucial clock/game situation. At least one time the ball was snapped by the Falcons with 19 seconds on the play clock. Simply unacceptable. Another point: it's been pretty much shown that NFL coaches are absurdly conservative (i.e. "wrong") when it comes to deciding on going for 2 versus going for 1. The mistake is always in the direction of going for 1. Yet yesterday, just barely out of extra point range and with a great kicker, the coach decided to go haywire and run pass plays to "be more aggressive". Absolutely (and not just with benefit of hindsight) the correct decision is run/kneel 3 times and and then let your kicker hand you an insurmountable margin.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:36 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
the correct decision is run/kneel 3 times and and then let your kicker hand you an insurmountable margin.
That's the main sequence that the Falcons botched. Their play calling to that point was ok. Obviously they weren't managing the clock well, I remember the snap at :19 you mentioned.
At the Patriots 22 with 4:40 left in the game, they should have just played for the field goal. Three runs for no gain and you have a pretty good kicker attempting a 39/40 yard field goal.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:41 pm to lsupride87
quote:
First one to score 40 wins, then ATL wins that game last night because they keep the same plan. However, that clock in football really screws with people.
They lost, imo, because they ignored the clock.
They were leaving 10-20 seconds on the clock most of the 4th, and then did a deep drop back up 8 in easy FG range.
Even if for some reason you think they should stay aggressive and throw the ball there, it needs to be a quick route
This post was edited on 2/6/17 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:45 pm to shel311
quote:
The previous sentence is a paraphrasing from the strategy classic The Art of War, written by China’s Sun Tzu—2,500 years ago. [Practicing] this stuff is difficult,” he goes on. “If it is allowed to embarrass, it will be avoided. And the ones most vulnerable to embarrassment—the coach and the QBs—are the ones who can least afford to avoid it.”
that's one key. big
the other that happened was underestimating the opponent.
If you caught the post game with Bradshaw on set, he said, after the punt to the 9, he "knew" that Brady would drive for a TD. Someone on the sideline actually asked him, "you don't think he can drive the 91 yards, do you?"
Bradshaw: "you just watch him now".
I would have gone for it on 4th down if I were Atlanta.
I don't give Brady the chance to win. Period.
If NE stops them on 4th down, a FG does NE no good. similar enough to warrant trying for the first down on 4th and 23.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:47 pm to CelticDog
quote:Is this on video? I have trouble buying that someone doubted whether Brady could drive 91 yards down a football field.
If you caught the post game with Bradshaw on set, he said, after the punt to the 9, he "knew" that Brady would drive for a TD. Someone on the sideline actually asked him, "you don't think he can drive the 91 yards, do you?" Bradshaw: "you just watch him now".
quote:So he just assumes that going for it on 4th down and it was actually 33 yards to go would not be giving Brady a chance to win?
would have gone for it on 4th down if I were Atlanta. I don't give Brady the chance to win. Period. If NE stops them on 4th down, a FG does NE no good. similar enough to warrant trying for the first down on 4th and 23.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:47 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:That too, but running the ball keeps the clock running. When you are up 16 with under 10 minutes to go you are essentially playing the clock at that point.
They lost, imo, because they ignored the clock.
They were leaving 10-20 seconds on the clock most of the 4th, and then did a deep drop back up 8 in easy FG range.
Even if for some reason you think they should stay aggressive and throw the ball there, it needs to be a quick route
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:49 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
That too, but running the ball keeps the clock running. When you are up 16 with under 10 minutes to go you are essentially playing the clock at that point.
I don't really have a problem with them passing the ball with 10 minutes to go. But when the clock is running, drain it. I get staying with your offense that has been working. Ryan needs to have better awareness on that fumble
But up 8 after the Julio catch, you drain that clock as far as you can and kick the FG. At most, you run a screen
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:50 pm to CelticDog
quote:
I would have gone for it on 4th down if I were Atlanta.
I don't give Brady the chance to win. Period.
If NE stops them on 4th down, a FG does NE no good. similar enough to warrant trying for the first down on 4th and 23.
Wait, what? No way do you go for it on 4th and 33. You're essentially giving the Pats the ball at the NE 45 with 3:30 to go down 8 if you do that. That isn't just enough time for NE to score, that is enough time for NE to score, miss the 2 point conversion, and still possibly have another possession for the win
This post was edited on 2/6/17 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:56 pm to TigerBait1127
quote:True. On 3rd and 1, down by 16 you know they are going to blitz. You have to make sure to see it and make sure it is picked up. I think he should have called an audible to a run, but that's just me.
I don't really have a problem with them passing the ball with 10 minutes to go. But when the clock is running, drain it. I get staying with your offense that has been working. Ryan needs to have better awareness on that fumble
quote:Yup. They needed to run off at least 3:30 minutes with runs and snapping the ball under three seconds.
But up 8 after the Julio catch, you drain that clock as far as you can and kick the FG. At most, you run a screen
Posted on 2/6/17 at 2:59 pm to MontyFranklyn
Pretty amazing game to analyze a multitude of factors ... and, to think, so many didn't even see it.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 3:01 pm to navy
quote:
Process vs Result, I mention just that al the time on here.
It applies to more than just football/sports.
I regret that i have but one upvote to give.
ETA:
If you guys are like me, people turn and stare at you while games are on because of the crap you say. Lots of times you say it, then the announcers say it.
I envy folks that can enjoy a game and not nitpick just about everything while its going on. I bet im an annoying frick to watch a game with.
Les Miles nearly killed my joy of watching football. If there was ever a result oriented guy, jesus, it was him.
I prefer watching football by myself or with a fellow nitpicker.
This post was edited on 2/6/17 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 2/6/17 at 3:08 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
True. On 3rd and 1, down by 16 you know they are going to blitz. You have to make sure to see it and make sure it is picked up. I think he should have called an audible to a run, but that's just me.
I think the problem on that play started with the formation. Ryan is in the shotgun and the RB is lined up in front of him and to his right. They've used that formation in the past and I'm sure they have some sort of run out of it but they pretty much took away any threat of the run by the formation.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 3:16 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
I feel the exact opposite about hoops coaches - 80% seem like they would be great businessmen/lawyers/etc.
I couldn't disagree more. Football is considerably more complex than basketball.
Posted on 2/6/17 at 3:28 pm to Big Scrub TX
i have really started studying poker again over the past 6 months or so and the real debate is the GTO v. exploitative approach to the game. i really think the NFL has been too focused on exploitative play and hasn't focused nearly as much on the GTO style of coaching/playcalling.
i can't wait for the day when coaches have GTO-based randomizers on the sidelines dictating what they should do every play
i can't wait for the day when coaches have GTO-based randomizers on the sidelines dictating what they should do every play
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