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re: Going for it on 4th in the red zone
Posted on 1/25/26 at 5:52 pm to UltimateHog
Posted on 1/25/26 at 5:52 pm to UltimateHog
quote:
People only say this when they don't get it and then don't say anything when it's converted. The numbers aren't close.
Did the numbers account for a playing in a gd blizzard in the second half with a backup QB?
0
Posted on 1/25/26 at 6:10 pm to TigersHuskers
Especially when you know what weather is coming in the 2nd half
Posted on 1/25/26 at 6:15 pm to UltimateHog
quote:
People only say this when they don't get it and then don't say anything when it's converted. The numbers aren't close.
What's the percentage when teams go up by 10 points in a game?
Posted on 1/25/26 at 6:16 pm to Rainier Fog
Burned a few coaches these playoffs.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 6:18 pm to TigersHuskers
Sean Payton being too cute. Backfired
Posted on 1/25/26 at 6:35 pm to chalmetteowl
Always take the points in the 1st half
Posted on 1/25/26 at 7:04 pm to PeteRose
quote:
As I said before, analytics only tells you what to do based on the percentage of 1 play. It doesn’t account to conditions/situations outside of that play.
I’m not sure exactly is meant by this. But it definitely takes into account a huge thing people always forget, which is field position. If you turn it over on downs within the 5 yard line, that means the other team has to drive it 95 yards to score a TD. If you kick a FG and make it, the other team is going start on about the 29 after you kickoff.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 7:43 pm to TigersHuskers
POINTS!
And a blizzard is on the way.
And a blizzard is on the way.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 8:41 pm to PeteRose
quote:
As I said before, analytics only tells you what to do based on the percentage of 1 play
And this just shows you don’t know anything about it and just reflexively call anything that doesn’t confirm to the most conservative risk averse strategy “analytics”.
This post was edited on 1/25/26 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 1/25/26 at 8:48 pm to TigersHuskers
If it's like a 4th and 1 situation. I agree with going for it. But if you're at 4th and 2 or longer, just kick the field goal.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 9:00 pm to SPEEDY
quote:
LSU fans need to get use to those kind of maddening play calls
We will be winning championships though
Posted on 1/25/26 at 9:03 pm to TigersHuskers
I mean, there’s nuance to it.
4th and inches? Absolutely go for it.
4th and 1? Sure, go for it.
4th and 2? Ehh, sure.
4th and 3? Not so sure
4th and 4+? Absolutely not unless it’s necessary.
Medium to long yardage in condensed fields is so hard to pull off in the NFL.
4th and inches? Absolutely go for it.
4th and 1? Sure, go for it.
4th and 2? Ehh, sure.
4th and 3? Not so sure
4th and 4+? Absolutely not unless it’s necessary.
Medium to long yardage in condensed fields is so hard to pull off in the NFL.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 9:05 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
I’m not sure exactly is meant by this. But it definitely takes into account a huge thing people always forget, which is field position. If you turn it over on downs within the 5 yard line, that means the other team has to drive it 95 yards to score a TD. If you kick a FG and make it, the other team is going start on about the 29 after you kickoff.
If you’re up 14-0 3rd qtr and it’s cold and windy, analytics will tell you to go for it 4 and 3 at midfield because the chance of getting a 1st down is 52%. It doesn’t know that if you punt the ball deep, the opponent had less than 25% chance to score.
Look at the game today. Let’s say it’s 4 and 2 at midfield 4th qtr and Patriots have the ball. Analytics will tell you NE go for it. But if you punt it deep, the chance of Broncos scoring is slim. And Vrabel knew that.
Posted on 1/25/26 at 9:11 pm to thegambler
quote:
POINTS!
And a blizzard is on the way.
Not disagreeing, would have taken the points. That said I live up here and the blizzard wasn't in the forecast I watched this morning. I am sure they have their own resources, but I was expecting cold with little to no precipitation.
My big issue was the actual play called. They called a 20 yard pass to the perimeter that would have gone for 2 yards. If your going for 4th and 1 call a tush push.
This post was edited on 1/25/26 at 9:12 pm
Posted on 1/25/26 at 9:39 pm to TigersHuskers
My 7 year old may have finally understood clock management when he saw this one play out. He is awesome and watches all football on repeat, I walked him through this one real time. He was going for the Seahawks so think it sunk in 
Posted on 1/25/26 at 11:41 pm to PeteRose
quote:
If you’re up 14-0 3rd qtr and it’s cold and windy, analytics will tell you to go for it 4 and 3 at midfield because the chance of getting a 1st down is 52%. It doesn’t know that if you punt the ball deep, the opponent had less than 25% chance to score.
I think you are just making stuff up. Also just to clarify, I am not really even opining on the specific decision from today. I understand that there can be exceptions to a rule. But the “trend” toward using analytics (in other words, logic) as the new norm is a vast improvement in decision making in football. The premise of the thread was a complete joke.
Posted on 1/26/26 at 6:12 am to s0tiger
quote:
My big issue was the actual play called. They called a 20 yard pass to the perimeter that would have gone for 2 yards. If your going for 4th and 1 call a tush push.
I don’t know what it is but defenses seem to be better and more aggressive in those situations than they usually are and I feel like that leads to holes elsewhere
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