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Expanding CFP Won't Increase Parity
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:28 am
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:28 am
The argument is frequently made that the playoffs should be expanded to more than four teams as it would give more teams the opportunity to make a run. Looking at the FCS playoffs, a 24 team bracket, over the same time period as the FBS playoffs (2014-2018) you have the same dominance by the top team. NDSU has won 3/4 and is playing for their fourth out of 5 in a couple of days. They have in fact been more dominant in that stretch than Bama has in FBS.
The FCS seeds the top 8 teams and gives them byes, this year all top 8 seeds won their first round game. Over the 2014-2018 time period, the seeded teams are 30-10 (75% win percentage). An unseeded team has made the semis the last three seasons, and one has made it to the finals, but none has won it all. No team outside of the top 3 seeds has won a title.
There will always be controversy over who the fourth team is in the playoffs and who was left out, but expansion will simply not make enough of a difference to change seeing Bama vs Clemson in the finals for the foreseeable future.
Tl;dr: The CFP should stay at 4 teams.
The FCS seeds the top 8 teams and gives them byes, this year all top 8 seeds won their first round game. Over the 2014-2018 time period, the seeded teams are 30-10 (75% win percentage). An unseeded team has made the semis the last three seasons, and one has made it to the finals, but none has won it all. No team outside of the top 3 seeds has won a title.
There will always be controversy over who the fourth team is in the playoffs and who was left out, but expansion will simply not make enough of a difference to change seeing Bama vs Clemson in the finals for the foreseeable future.
Tl;dr: The CFP should stay at 4 teams.
23
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:30 am to lionward2014
While I agree with you it won't increase parity, I will also say I give way less of a shite when LSU has no shot at the playoffs. Maybe I'd keep watching if they did.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:33 am to lionward2014
Every team’s first loss should be a huge freaking deal, that’s what makes the CFB regular season so electric and compelling. Why we care about week 1 the same as week 6 the same as week 12.
4 team playoffs means if you are a P5 team and win all your games, 99% chance you make the playoff. If you lose a game, you have to hope the cards fall in your favor while you play great the rest of the season. If we expand it to 8 teams, especially if we give conference winners auto bids, losses lose a ton a meaning which waters down the best regular season in all of sports.
I agree - 4 teams is perfect.
4 team playoffs means if you are a P5 team and win all your games, 99% chance you make the playoff. If you lose a game, you have to hope the cards fall in your favor while you play great the rest of the season. If we expand it to 8 teams, especially if we give conference winners auto bids, losses lose a ton a meaning which waters down the best regular season in all of sports.
I agree - 4 teams is perfect.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:33 am to lionward2014
It'll go to 8 eventually, which will be a terrible thing for the sport.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:33 am to lionward2014
Playoffs have actually decreased parity pretty substantially imo. Players have pretty quickly figured out that only a relative few schools have a decent shot of going to the playoffs, and regular bowls aren't as attractive as they used to be.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:36 am to Crowknowsbest
It’ll go to 8 and probably sooner than you think. The goal isn’t parity. It’s more interest. Conversation, clicks, eyeballs. More teams involved. More media markets talking about it. More fans interested.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:38 am to lionward2014
IDGAF about parity. That was never my interest. I GAF about settling more on the field in a playoff format than subjective rankings and musical chairs over the top 4 when there are 5 power conferences.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:40 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
It'll go to 8 eventually, which will be a terrible thing for the sport.
I think that’s overstated.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:40 am to lionward2014
I don't think it will increase or reduce parity. I think 8 is the better option because it enables us to do auto-bids and have clear objectives to make the playoffs. I'm tired of subjective decisions or made up computer formulas deciding who gets in. Know what you need to do to get in and there's no excuses.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:41 am to RLDSC FAN
quote:
It'll go to 8 eventually, which will be a terrible thing for the sport.
, no, it won't be a terrible thing. 
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:42 am to Allthatfades
quote:
The goal isn’t parity. It’s more interest. Conversation, clicks, eyeballs. More teams involved. More media markets talking about it. More fans interested.
But it's supposed to be terrible for the sport?
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:43 am to lionward2014
quote:
Expanding CFP
is stupid, what distinguished college football from other sports in American history and makes it so compelling on a weekly basis is the overwhelming and immense emphasis it places on regular season performance, every regular season game is a one-game playoff and college football exists in a format that incentivizes undefeated seasons whereas, in the NFL, undefeated seasons are a goal, an accomplishment. The more we expand the CFP, giving one/two-loss teams mulligans with this tournament, the more we diminish the entire point of college football, its distinguishing and compelling format that sets it apart.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:43 am to Rand AlThor
quote:
8 is the better option because it enables us to do auto-bids and have clear objectives to make the playoffs. I'm tired of subjective decisions or made up computer formulas deciding who gets in. Know what you need to do to get in and there's no excuses.
All. Of. This.
Push the debating and the whining and the bellyaching and the general aesthetic semantics down the rankings to those who didn't win their conference. That's when I can stomach resume comparisons.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:46 am to ThePTExperience1969
quote:
The more we expand the CFP, giving one/two-loss teams mulligans with this tournament, the more we diminish the entire point of college football, its distinguishing and compelling format that sets it apart.
The entire point of college football is to crown a champion in a way that makes sense. I'm not "compelled" by seeing a penny ante notre dame team get poleaxed because their regular season afforded them more leeway than Georgia. Whole concept of "let's not have a real tournament because that's what makes us different!" is asinine.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:46 am to lionward2014
NDSU is the exception rather than the norm. What they have done is unprecedented at that level
Since seeding started look at the champs before the Bison run (FCS seeded only top 4 until 2010)
Champions
2004 unseeded James Madison
2005 #2 App State
2006 #1 App State
2007 unseeded App State
2008 unseeded Richmond
2009 #2 Villanova
2010 #5 Eastern Washington
In the 7 years before this run 4 of the champions were not ranked in the top four
If they only used top four many times the best team would have never had a chance to win it all. Every conference champion deserves a shot as there is no other way to definitively say who really is the best team.
As North Dakota State shows, the best team will still rise but there will be no question as to any deserving teams being left out.
8 is the perfect amount if teams that allows all regions of the country to be represented while allowing stronger regions/conferences to place multiple teams.
FCS has a ton of parity as there are always newer teams competing in the playoffs Look at the Southland, almost ever team has had a shot at a title in the last 15 years.
If anything FCS proves the need for expansion.
Since seeding started look at the champs before the Bison run (FCS seeded only top 4 until 2010)
Champions
2004 unseeded James Madison
2005 #2 App State
2006 #1 App State
2007 unseeded App State
2008 unseeded Richmond
2009 #2 Villanova
2010 #5 Eastern Washington
In the 7 years before this run 4 of the champions were not ranked in the top four
If they only used top four many times the best team would have never had a chance to win it all. Every conference champion deserves a shot as there is no other way to definitively say who really is the best team.
As North Dakota State shows, the best team will still rise but there will be no question as to any deserving teams being left out.
8 is the perfect amount if teams that allows all regions of the country to be represented while allowing stronger regions/conferences to place multiple teams.
FCS has a ton of parity as there are always newer teams competing in the playoffs Look at the Southland, almost ever team has had a shot at a title in the last 15 years.
If anything FCS proves the need for expansion.
This post was edited on 12/31/18 at 11:53 am
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:46 am to TbirdSpur2010
I'd only be in favor of autobids if there is a stipulation that you have to be a conference winner ranked in the top 10 to get that autobid. Otherwise you are one upset away from a garbage team making it in.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:51 am to Ross
quote:
I'd only be in favor of autobids if there is a stipulation that you have to be a conference winner ranked in the top 10 to get that autobid. Otherwise you are one upset away from a garbage team making it in.
Nah, no stipulations. That just opens the door for speculation when it should be cut and dried: win your conference, and you're in. I'm not petrified of some weaker conference champ being in. Hell, a stronger team might underestimate them just because of that.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:52 am to lionward2014
ND has to actually join a conference. 6 conference champion auto bids. 2 play ins. Would be a fantastic playoff.
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:54 am to AUCE05
quote:
6 conference champion auto bids.
Who is the 6th conference? AAC
Posted on 12/31/18 at 11:54 am to Ross
Yep. Going to 8 without an overhaul of the conferences and their championship games will ultimately be something we regret.
It’s sad that the CFB season is going to continue to get watered down when the playoffs have been mostly terrible for the last five years.
It’s sad that the CFB season is going to continue to get watered down when the playoffs have been mostly terrible for the last five years.
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