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Started By
Message
ESPN "Win Probability"
Posted on 11/19/22 at 11:47 am
Posted on 11/19/22 at 11:47 am
Ive seen this number be like 70% ish when a team is down by 2 with like 1 minute left around the 30 yard line. Then when the other team connects on a 20 yard pass it flips to 70% to them. Which seems like it probably wasnt really 70 to start with. ive seen much worse examples. Clearly i do not understand the formulae cause IM bama fan and i stupid and going to sorry bowl game
13
Posted on 11/19/22 at 11:51 am to Streelman
I think it is one of those things, it is what it is until it is not.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 11:51 am to Streelman
What down was it? Do you have a link?
Posted on 11/19/22 at 11:57 am to Streelman
It’s just made up bullshite
Posted on 11/19/22 at 11:58 am to Ed Osteen
It’s a retarded stat networks use to appeal to the numbers dweebs watching
Posted on 11/19/22 at 12:05 pm to Streelman
OP: I don't understand probability so it's bullshite.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 12:09 pm to TH03
It gets real wild during college basketball season
Posted on 11/19/22 at 12:57 pm to Streelman
Analytics: because the percentages are obviously the same whether you’re playing Alabama on the road or Georgia Tech at home.
So stupid.
So stupid.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 1:17 pm to Streelman
Going 40-50 in a minute is a lot harder than going 20-30 in the same amount of time.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 1:23 pm to Streelman
Have you seen live odds swing on one play? Happens all the time
Posted on 11/19/22 at 3:08 pm to Streelman
I wish they would stop filtering in useless stats like this into the broadcasts. It doesn't improve the viewing experience.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 3:33 pm to Streelman
quote:
Ive seen this number be like 70% ish when a team is down by 2 with like 1 minute left around the 30 yard line. Then when the other team connects on a 20 yard pass it flips to 70% to them. Which seems like it probably wasnt really 70 to start with. ive seen much worse examples. Clearly i do not understand the formulae cause IM bama fan and i stupid and going to sorry bowl game
In that specific example it makes sense. In theory, they generate a large number of simulations for that scenario. Most of them end in defeat for the team with possession. But a lot of the victorious simulations probably involve some kind of big play happening immediately. So when that big play happens, you're now looking at a different scenario with more favorable parameters (1st and 10 from midfield with let's say 0:56 instead of 1st and 10 from the 30 with 1:00).
Imagine that we have a jar of 100 marbles, and 80 of them are blue, 19 are yellow, and 1 is red. It's very unlikely that you'll pull a blue, a yellow, and a red in three tries. But if your first try is a red and your second try is a yellow, we now know your odds of pulling one of each color are a lot higher. Thus your odds could swing very quickly depending on the outcome of each pull, or in the case of a football game, each play.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 3:56 pm to Ed Osteen
quote:
It’s just made up bullshite
Yep, pulled straight out of someone’s arse.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 4:12 pm to Streelman
quote:
Clearly i do not understand the formulae cause IM bama fan and i stupid and going to sorry bowl game
quote:
Clearly
Posted on 11/19/22 at 4:32 pm to Streelman
Why’d you pick a scenario in which that flip makes total sense?
Posted on 11/19/22 at 4:38 pm to Streelman
quote:what are you talking about?
Ive seen this number be like 70% ish when a team is down by 2 with like 1 minute left around the 30 yard line. Then when the other team connects on a 20 yard pass it flips to 70% to them. Which seems like it probably wasnt really 70 to start with.
With a small deficit like that, with little time left each successful play is going to wildly affect the the probability.
Posted on 11/19/22 at 6:02 pm to Streelman
i'm with you on this one.
I hate it.
I hate it.
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