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DoCho's Bowl Prediction Algorithm: Day 3
Posted on 12/24/13 at 8:41 am
Posted on 12/24/13 at 8:41 am
3-2 so far against the spread, same for picking winners. Yesterday was very encouraging as the spread was 14, my algorithm chose 15, and the result was 17.
Yesterday I realized that I underestimated the clustering errors in my algorithm so that my accuracy is only 67% rather than what I thought was 75%. In the future Ill work to refine this by changing the number of clusters and attempting to obtain better data.
Today's game is Boise St vs Oregon State. The lines I see have Oregon State as a 3 point favorite. My algorithm has selected Boise State as the winner. OSU was placed in the cluster expected to lose, usually by double digits, while BSU was placed in the cluster expected to win, usually by double digits. My algorithm gives BSU an 82.4% chance to beat the spread, and also win the game. It gives BSU a 72.5% chance to win the game by double digits
BSU +3. $ in the bank.
Yesterday I realized that I underestimated the clustering errors in my algorithm so that my accuracy is only 67% rather than what I thought was 75%. In the future Ill work to refine this by changing the number of clusters and attempting to obtain better data.
Today's game is Boise St vs Oregon State. The lines I see have Oregon State as a 3 point favorite. My algorithm has selected Boise State as the winner. OSU was placed in the cluster expected to lose, usually by double digits, while BSU was placed in the cluster expected to win, usually by double digits. My algorithm gives BSU an 82.4% chance to beat the spread, and also win the game. It gives BSU a 72.5% chance to win the game by double digits
BSU +3. $ in the bank.
6
Posted on 12/24/13 at 8:43 am to DollaChoppa
does your algorithm take into effect that chris petersen isnt coaching there anymore?
Posted on 12/24/13 at 8:45 am to diat150
Good point. It is very important to point out that the algorithm cannot identify coaching changes and injuries.
I suspect many of these instances are what makes up the 33% error
I suspect many of these instances are what makes up the 33% error
Posted on 12/24/13 at 8:51 am to DollaChoppa
quote:
I suspect many of these instances are what makes up the 33% error
or that football isn't played in a computer, but yeah
Posted on 12/24/13 at 8:53 am to RonFNSwanson
My algorithms:
LINK
Today's game:
Dec 24 2013
Prediction Method #1: Boise State 33, Oregon State 32 - Total: 64.5
Prediction Method #2: Boise State 29, Oregon State 29 - Total: 58
Prediction Method #3: Boise State 33, Oregon State 26 - Total: 59
Combined: Boise State 31.6, Oregon State 29 - Total: 60.5
LINK
Today's game:
Dec 24 2013
Prediction Method #1: Boise State 33, Oregon State 32 - Total: 64.5
Prediction Method #2: Boise State 29, Oregon State 29 - Total: 58
Prediction Method #3: Boise State 33, Oregon State 26 - Total: 59
Combined: Boise State 31.6, Oregon State 29 - Total: 60.5
Posted on 12/24/13 at 8:54 am to DollaChoppa
Interesting. If you get this correct, color me impressed. I know nothing about Boise this year, but know the Oregon State offense is supposed to be quite good.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 9:11 am to DollaChoppa
No coach and no qb and you like boise?
Posted on 12/24/13 at 9:20 am to harry coleman beast
quote:
No coach and no qb and you like boise?
their 2nd stringer, has better numbers and was getting major playing time. He is ready, and they were pushing Southwick slowly out of lineup.
New Qb, has played in 12 games, Southwick 8 games. So he's not a green QB, Boise shouldnt miss a beat. Bet them on ML(+135)
5-0 in bowls
should be 4-1, but was able to get La tech at -2 in first quarter, when it looked like a blowout. So i won $30 in the end on the game, so a win? or a push in w/l rankings?
Posted on 12/24/13 at 9:24 am to goldennugget
Oh hell yeah, algorithm turf war
Posted on 12/24/13 at 9:34 am to ShamelessPel
quote:
Oh hell yeah, algorithm turf war
I need to get on the ball for next year and get my shite together too. This year's version has Boise by 3.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 9:53 am to SeeeeK
quote:
should be 4-1, but was able to get La tech at -2 in first quarter, when it looked like a blowout. So i won $30 in the end on the game, so a win? or a push in w/l rankings?
La Tech in a bowl?
Posted on 12/24/13 at 9:54 am to DollaChoppa
Can your algorithm predict when a startin quarterback is going to purportedly piss off a hotel balcony?
Posted on 12/24/13 at 9:57 am to massiveattack
quote:
I know nothing about Boise this year, but know the Oregon State passing offense is supposed to be quite good.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 10:09 am to harry coleman beast
quote:
La Tech in a bowl?
frick me again, but meh, la monroe, la tech, la lafayette, etc same fricking thing.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 10:11 am to SeeeeK
You two need to combine algorithms to make the ultimate TD betting tool and win us all money.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 10:22 am to massiveattack
You'll be impressed after one game? High standards
Posted on 12/24/13 at 10:27 am to TheOcean
I guess your right. Maybe ill just start to pay attention more closely if he starts to go on a run.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 11:01 am to SeeeeK
Oh you done fricked up now if any of their fans see this.
Posted on 12/24/13 at 11:16 am to DollaChoppa
Just took BSU ML +140.
Lets go!
Lets go!
Posted on 12/24/13 at 11:23 am to jembeurt
Yeah I took OSU but have zero confidence in the pick. I just remember they have a stud WR and Vegas had them as the favorite.
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