re: Daily Betting Thread 3/7 Monday

I go to bed after betting on a shitty MLS game last night and you people let it end in a draw. Sad

Well since parlays have been so unsuccessful for me I of course decided to make another

Nhl

Panthers/Sabres over 6.5
Kings / bruins under 6
Avalanche/ islanders under 6
Flames M/L

Don’t tail me. I suck.

you gonna win tonight now. It`s so damn funny when I need a open goal I don`t get it, but let me make a 3rd period bet getting +1.5 puckline and see what happens.

DraftKings has a NBA SGP Boost. I got 25%

Easy money on DK Golf this weekend. Had Hovland and McIlroy to finish in Top 20, and Horschel, Fitzpatrick, and Kokrak in the top 40. Only missed on Tringale.

And while we have a few minutes with nothing to do while we actually wait for something to bet on, I will share a couple of things I have picked up on while doing SGP's for NBA games.

I mentioned a few days ago I was taking the approach of doing many small SGP's each day instead of a few big ones, with the hope accumulating many small wins instead of hoping for one large one.

So far it has worked well; I have come out ahead on 4 of 5 days.

Yesterday was the day where I went buck-wild and did 21 of these, since it was Sunday and I had nothing better to do.

I placed $10 on each one and went 10/21, turning a profit of about $110. I would have done better but Kyrie Irving fricked up 3 of them, as I broke my rule of "don't put all of your eggs in one basket".

All of my parlays had 2-3 legs. I don't take what I would consider great risks--I do a lot of p/r, p/r/a, etc. and I find a number that the player hits on most nights. For example, I am not going to do 55 p/r/a for Giannis if he has only reached that number like 3 times in 10 games. I would tend to find the number where he has hit 8 of his last 10 or so.

The key to success is finding value, and if you look hard enough it is there.

Some examples:

--Caesar's lets you combine blocks and steals. Khris Middleton rarely has any of either. In his last 10 games, his total of blocks + steals has never been over 1. So getting him at < 1.5 blocks and steals is almost a gimme.

Last night I did a 2-leg parlay, Middleton +24.5 p/r/a and Middleton < 1.5 blocks and steals. Both hit, and my $10 turned into $32.20 ($22.20 profit)

Draft Kings and Caesar's both give good value for steals, blocks, and threes.

In Clippers vs. Knicks, I had Mann at +1 3's and Covington 2 + blocks/steals. That hit in the first half alone. $10 turned into $24.20. Covington had at least 2+ blocks + steals in 8 of his last 9 games, so getting him at 2+ was almost a gimme there.

Also Julius Randle is a player who almost never gets blocks or steals. I am sure there are plenty of others, and this is something I am going to look for each night when I am putting these together.

Also, on Draft Kings, you can do over/under points. I have used Ziaire Williams of the Grizzlies here in the last 3 games at "under 9.5" and it has hit each time. He has only been in double figures in 1 of his last 10 games.

Also, Caesar's lets you combine just rebounds and assists. If you find players that aren't good at either, then you can get some value

A few others that I used yesterday:

--Ayton (Suns) under 11.5 rebounds and assists. Before yesterday he hadn't gone above this number in his last 6 games. He came close yesterday, but still stayed under.

--Herbert Jones (Pelicans) +2.5 blocks/steals. He had been well over this number in his previous 4 games.

--McCollum 1 steal

Of course, sometimes these do backfire--Jokic hadn't hit a 3 in his last 3 games, so I got him at <2 3's last night, and he hit 3.

I also had Crowder of the Suns with 0 blocks, which hit, but also had him with 2 steals since he had that number in 6 of his last 7 games. He got 0 yesterday.

But these little bets can have value. A couple of my wins yesterday:

--Valanciunas 30+ p/r/a and Herbert Jones +2.5 blk/stl.
$10---> $43.33

--Ingram +34.5 p/r/a and McCollum 1 steal.
$10---> $32.20

--Crowder 20+ p/r/a and Ayton NO double double.
$10---> $31

--Middleton +24.5 p/a, Middleton < 1.5 block + steal.
$10---> $32.20

--Donovan Mitchell 4+ 3's, 30+ p/a, Gobert 12+ reb
$10---> $25

--Z Williams < 9.5 pts, Christian Wood 25+ p/r, Bane 2+ 3's. $10---> $30

There were some misses too, as mentioned above. I had Crowder under 2.5 3's and he hit 4. But all you have to do is win about half of these to make a nice profit because the return is so great.

I will try to post some of today's picks a little later when I get some time.

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I will try to post some of today's picks a little later when I get some time.

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I will try to post some of today's picks a little later when I get some time.

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Would like to tail if you post.

I like doing one lottery parlay a day either CBB or SGP all added together on FD. I've convinced myself it will hit one day. But it usually doesn't. I have been trying to use ALT points more often.

I hit a parlay last night with the Pels game.

Jonas D/D
Joker D/D
Hayes O 0.5 blocks
Herb O 0.5 3's

$15 into $73.50

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My daily CBB lose by one leg ML parlay: (+852)


Towson
South Dakota St.
Chattanooga
Charleston
St. Mary’s

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Just throw Gonzaga in for good measure. They are not super favorites like usual today and they will win. They not losing two WCC games in a row.