Daily Betting Thread - Thursday, 3/24 - Sweet 16 Edition

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Disclaimer! I am cold as shite right now, please tail with caution.

I always want to emphasize, if you guys disagree with my picks or have any input to share, please do! While I’m honored to have all this support and trust, the last thing I would want is for people to be tailing my word and my word only. I’m only human. If we combine our ideas and takes as a collective, our odds of cashing can only increase. This is also helpful for those who don’t know much about the match or tennis in general that could use more transparency.

ATP:

POTD: Musetti ML vs. Popyrin (-155 on DK) for 4u

(I don't do POTD's unless I really love a play, and while I'm cold as frick right now, I really love this one. Musetti is 3-1 against Popyrin, and just beat the shite out of him last week on a hard surface. He also beat him in straight sets their 3 last meetings. Popyrin only beat him on clay in 2019 when Musetti was 17. Musetti has gotten far better, is higher ranked, and Popyrin is on a 3 match losing streak (3-10 in 2022). Musetti is practically his daddy at this point, so I'm going with daddy to take the win.)

Thompson ML vs. Tsonga (-180 on DK) for 4u

(Hate to bet against a legend like Tsonga, but it's just the move these days. The Frenchman is old and has been struggling with injuries. He also hasn't been able to beat a top-100 player yet this year. Jordan Thompson is not that good, but he's 27, and has had a few impressive performances this year (Goffin, Nakashima, Giron). Value isn't that sexy, but it's just hard not to bet against Tsonga right now.)

Kecmanovic ML vs. Sock (-160 on DK) for 2u

(Yes, Sock looked good against Johnson the other day, but that's Steve fricking Johnson. Sock is yet to beat a player in the top 80 this year. Kecmanovic is having a great year, going to the quarterfinals of each of the last 3 tournaments he has been in. He is 15-6 this year. He also defeated Sock in straight sets the last time they played, and has only gotten better since then.)

Giron vs. Fucsovics o22.5 games (-130 on DK) for 2u

(This is a battle between the 55th in the world and 52nd. Fucsovics is 5-7, while Giron is 6-7. Both of these players, however, have been playing competitive ball, even against higher ranked players. I think Giron will win here, but it will be tight.)

Giron vs. Fucsovics o2.5 sets (+135 on DK) for 1u

(Same reasoning as above, but for better value. Both of these guys regularly get themselves in 3-set situations, as well.)

Other shite:

Eqbal ML vs. Suresh (-175 on DK) for 4u -> ITF New Delhi (M)

Barreto Sanchez ML vs. Pujolras (+130 on DK) for 1u -> ITF Palmanova (M)

TAIL OR FADE BOL!

Tips are very much appreciated, if deemed worthy (which hasn't been the case lately):

Venmo: N_Azara

Cash app: NikoAza


Edit: changed Thompson units from 3 to 4.

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