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re: Covers.com Projected BCS Matchups and Lines

Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:25 am to
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:25 am to
So if Oregon State is barely eligible (#15 or #16) with 2 losses and ND has 1-loss and ranked in the Top 10.

Wow, that would be some loyalty and bending over backwards and a matchup nobody really wants to see.

USC they would take. Oregon State over Notre Dame. I'm not buying it...Rose is still in the business of profit.
This post was edited on 11/6/12 at 11:26 am
Posted by loweralabamatrojan
Lower Alabama
Member since Oct 2006
13260 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:32 am to
IMHO, SC would have to win out, and despite the difficulty, it's doable. If the Trojans beat:

NR ASU, #18 ucla, #4 ND and #2 Oregon, there's no way the Rose doesn't take them.

It'd be a pretty spectacular end to the season.

Oregon would look great in the Fiesta Bowl.
This post was edited on 11/6/12 at 11:33 am
Posted by theBeard
Member since Jul 2011
6739 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:33 am to
IMO
If I were doing lines based on the entire season
up to this last weekend

LSU -4 over Kstate
LSU -8 over ND
I think I am being nice to ND also. I believe ALA was a -13.5 over ND if the games were last week per Vegas
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:34 am to
quote:

and #2 Oregon, there's no way the Rose doesn't take them.


Well they would have to - we'd be Pac-12 Champs!!! - if we played Oregon again and won.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61026 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:38 am to
quote:

Wow, that would be some loyalty and bending over backwards and a matchup nobody really wants to see.

USC they would take. Oregon State over Notre Dame. I'm not buying it...Rose is still in the business of profit


Who the hell wanted to see USC-Ill? Considering how loyal the Pac 12 has been in sticking with the BiG and Rose Bowl, it would be pretty surprising if the dicked the conference over. The Pac10 could have voted with the SEC and ACC for a playoff a long time ago and told the Rose Bowl to fly a kite, that would be a huge slap in the face that would cost the Pac 12 a lot. Oregon State hasn't been to the Rose Bowl in forever, I bet they'd sell plenty of tickets and I'd also bet that the Rose Bowl is listed as a non-profit.

The more i think about it, if Alabama is in the BCS CG, the Sugar might take ND with their first pick. The Rose is not going to take UF/LSU/UGA/USCe to replace Oregon even if a Pac 12 team is not eligible. The Fiesta might, but if they don't the Sugar will with their 2nd pick and if the Fiesta did, the Sugar can just take a Big 12 tem or maybe Clemson.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61026 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:39 am to
quote:

NR ASU, #18 ucla, #4 ND and #2 Oregon, there's no way the Rose doesn't take them.


if that plays out the Rose Bowl wouldn't have a choice since the Pac 12 champ goes to the Rose Bowl, unless they are in the BCS CG.
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:44 am to
quote:

The more i think about it, if Alabama is in the BCS CG, the Sugar might take ND with their first pick.


What about Oregon? Does the Rose not get 1st pick this year if they lose their team to the BCS CG?
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
9430 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:47 am to
quote:

So if Oregon State is barely eligible (#15 or #16) with 2 losses and ND has 1-loss and ranked in the Top 10.



Finishing at least #14 in the BCS is the exact cutoff for eligibility.


quote:

USC they would take. Oregon State over Notre Dame. I'm not buying it...Rose is still in the business of profit.


I think in the long term, not turning their back on the PAC12 is probably a more lucrative decision. Getting Notre Dame would be huge for the Rose Bowl this year but even if Oregon St loses to Oregon and finishes 10-2 they'll get that bid.

The real chance ND has at the Rose is that Oregon St also loses at Stanford, Oregon runs the table, and the PAC12 doesn't have a second team in the Top 14.



I also don't see the Sugar Bowl turning their back on a Top5 SEC team even for ND.

This post was edited on 11/6/12 at 11:50 am
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:48 am to
I think with the playoff coming the Rose has moved away from its hard line stance.

The only thing supporting the conclusion of OSU going is when the Rose took shite-arse #13 Illinois in 2008 to replace Ohio State.

Yes, they would take a 3-loss USC at large if it wins out and doesn't have to play Oregon again...ala Bama last year because Zona goes to the PacCG
This post was edited on 11/6/12 at 11:49 am
Posted by sunnydaze
Member since Jan 2010
32952 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:48 am to
quote:

Sugar


quote:

Georgia


quote:

Oklahoma


lol
Posted by T
Member since Jan 2004
9889 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 11:49 am to
Sugar would take nd with the 1st pick, setting up an nd/la tech matchup. Rose bowl takes lsu as top 2 loss team. Oregon state will not get in due to la tech.
Posted by Buckeye06
Member since Dec 2007
25290 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:03 pm to
I wonder if the BIG can go winless this year
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61026 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

sunnydaze


UGA and OU could both finish 10-2 and ranked in the top 2, care to tell us why that's funny?
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61026 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

I also don't see the Sugar Bowl turning their back on a Top5 SEC team even for ND.


I could because they could still get an SEC team and if the Rose took an SEC team, i doubt the SEC or that team would be upset. Plus the SEC has a new deal to have the SEC Champ play the Big 12 champ possibly in a new bowl.
This post was edited on 11/6/12 at 12:15 pm
Posted by sunnydaze
Member since Jan 2010
32952 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:19 pm to
Jokes on you if you think OU and UGA finishes in the top 2
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
9430 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

I could because they could still get an SEC team and if the Rose took an SEC team, i doubt the SEC or that team would be upset.


I think I'm missing the scenario in which the Sugar would get both ND and an SEC team?


I guess I'm somewhat in the minority here, but I just don't see any way that the Rose Bowl doesn't take an eligible PAC12 team.

Even if they had the chance for undefeated ND, I still don't see it happening unless there's some shady behind the scenes brokering going on to make the PAC12 team satisfied with that deal.



Though I do agree that it would cause any waves for the Sugar Bowl if the SEC team they didn't choose went to the Rose Bowl instead in that scenario.



Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61026 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

I think I'm missing the scenario in which the Sugar would get both ND and an SEC team?


Assuming Alabama is in the BCS CG, the Sugar Bowl gets first pick. They could take ND. I agree with you that the Rose will take an eligible Pac 12 team to replace Oregon. So if the Fiesta doesn't take an SEC team to play KSU, then the Sugar Bowl would next. It's a stretch because the only appealing picks for the Fiesta would an SEC or ACC team assuming they don't want KSU-OU rematch.
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:49 pm to
If UGA doesn't win the SECCG, LSU is the likely Sugar Bowl pick.

LSU travels EXTREMELY well. Any bowl would be falling over themselves trying to get us in a bid.
Posted by ThePoo
Work
Member since Jan 2007
61700 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:51 pm to
why do i keep seeing projections with BAMA in the NC and UGA in the sugar...makes no sense
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
9430 posts
Posted on 11/6/12 at 12:54 pm to
Thanks.

Yeah, I suppose that could happen.

The best chance would seem to be for all the relevant SEC teams to lose one more game: FSU beats Florida, Clemson beats South Carolina, LSU loses and Georgia loses badly in SECCG.

I could see the Fiesta taking 1 loss Clemson over Georgia or Florida in that case.



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