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re: Big TV betting on Consolidation in NCAAF
Posted on 8/10/23 at 10:16 am to OleVaught14
Posted on 8/10/23 at 10:16 am to OleVaught14
quote:
That you'll gain more casual fans who don't follow CFB closely
Yeah that wont happen.
Colin Cowherd is the very definition of a casual and if the teams playing aren't the bluest of blue bloods he's NEVER going to care. It will be that way w/the overwhelming majority of casuals. You'd have to pair down the teams to 15-20 to get casuals to care and all that would do is destroy the real fanbases b/c half of those teams would suddenly start having losing seasons every year.
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 10:19 am
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Posted on 8/10/23 at 10:40 am to SoDakHawk
quote:
In 2018 Purdue boat races a stunned Ohio State team in a prime time game. That place was jumping that night and it was the talk of the college football world. But Purdue can't hold their weight. CFB needs the teams like Purdue. It's what makes it special.
Didn’t that game also have that young man who was dying of cancer and finally made it to a big Purdue game and they absolutely wrecked shite? What a moment that was. I believe he’s since passed on. The NFL can never have those types of moments.
Posted on 8/10/23 at 10:55 am to jlovel7
quote:
Didn’t that game also have that young man who was dying of cancer and finally made it to a big Purdue game and they absolutely wrecked shite? What a moment that was. I believe he’s since passed on.
Yep. The kid died later that year. It was easily one of the best stories of that season. That kind of thing would never happen in a super league.
Posted on 8/10/23 at 10:56 am to VADawg
quote:i mean, theres a reason for this
Congratulations, you are exactly the fan these TV execs are courting.
Posted on 8/10/23 at 11:23 am to Buckeye Backer
quote:
I'm sorry that some of you feel the networks should be forced to just keep spending billions of dollars on the PAC and absorb those losses, just in the name of "tradition". Again, thats why the PAC is going away.
What does the tv deal for the BIG and SEC have to do with the PAC? It's not their fault ESPN or whoever it is that broadcasts PAC football games is losing money.
The PAC is going away b/c they are a conference full of schools that have fans that don't give a shite.
Mississippi State and Ole Miss have enough baseball fans to make ESPN money for the CWS.
The BIG and SEC are full of mid tier programs that care, other than Vandy and Rutgers. Iowa and Illini fans are going to watch OSU/Mich. Auburn and South Carolina fans are going to watch LSU/Bama. Arkansas fans are going to watch Tex/OU. That doesn't happen in the PAC. Arizona state fans aren't going to watch Oregon/Washington. Hell there's probably more BIG fans watching that game than PAC fans.
Posted on 8/10/23 at 11:59 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
i mean, theres a reason for this
It's because TV execs are badly misreading how many people who aren't diehard college football fans care about the sport (hint: not many). Consolidating all of the biggest brands under one umbrella and cutting out rivalries and traditions is not going to make Guido Joe from the Bronx suddenly drop everything he's doing to watch that USC/Ohio State game.
You know who would have watched that USC/Ohio State game? The Oregon State fan the TV execs are shitting on in Mandel's response. That's the fan college football is going to lose.
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 8/10/23 at 12:00 pm to VADawg
Cutting out the oregon state/oregon rivalry isnt going to make the majority of college football fans refuse to watch Oregon vs Ohio State out of spite
And for the ones who do, there will most likely be more guido joes from the bronx who do turn into the game
And for the ones who do, there will most likely be more guido joes from the bronx who do turn into the game
Posted on 8/10/23 at 12:04 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
And for the ones who do, there will most likely be more guido joes from the bronx who do turn into the game
Those people don't watch college football now. This won't change that. TV execs seem to desperately be coveting the Northeast for college football, but the reality is that no one there gives a shite, even if it's a huge game.
This is the same thing NASCAR did. They abandoned their core fanbase to chase a bigger audience that isn't interested in their product and ended up losing a lot of their core fanbase in the process.
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 8/10/23 at 12:11 pm to VADawg
Even if they get 3% viewership, its worth it to them
Posted on 8/10/23 at 12:29 pm to WestCoastAg
I believe they would lose a lot more viewers than they would gain.
College football is bathing in money. I think they should continue to please their core fanbase who keeps coming back for more instead of risk losing them to chase a broader audience who is never going to watch anyways.
You seem to think that most people who are fans of college football will continue to watch as it becomes more and more NFL lite, and I disagree. I think the changes are going to turn a lot of diehard college football fans away and assuming there will be enough casual viewers to make up the difference is the same mistake NASCAR made.
College football is bathing in money. I think they should continue to please their core fanbase who keeps coming back for more instead of risk losing them to chase a broader audience who is never going to watch anyways.
You seem to think that most people who are fans of college football will continue to watch as it becomes more and more NFL lite, and I disagree. I think the changes are going to turn a lot of diehard college football fans away and assuming there will be enough casual viewers to make up the difference is the same mistake NASCAR made.
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:10 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
And for the ones who do, there will most likely be more guido joes from the bronx who do turn into the game
give me one good reason why someone who isn't interested in a big college football game right now, will become interested in it tomorrow?
why would guido joe watch OSU/USC 3 years from, but didn't want to watch it last year?
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:20 pm to TeddyPadillac
I dont think people who have never watched CFB will suddenly become interested
I think there is a group of fans who exist that literally only watch the major brands play eachother and I think that number is larger than the number of 4th generation families who have gone to Kansas State games since 1957 and are going to refuse to watch out of spite
I think there is a group of fans who exist that literally only watch the major brands play eachother and I think that number is larger than the number of 4th generation families who have gone to Kansas State games since 1957 and are going to refuse to watch out of spite
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:23 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
I think there is a group of fans who exist that literally only watch the major brands play eachother and I think that number is larger than the number of 4th generation families who have gone to Kansas State games since 1957 and are going to refuse to watch out of spite
These groups of fans can coexist in the same world. Why would TV execs want to alienate one of those groups of fans? The casual fan who only cares about big games would still be able to watch their big games as it stands now.
They also won't be watching if those big brands are having shite seasons, which will happen a lot more often as they consolidate into one large umbrella.
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:30 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
I think there is a group of fans who exist that literally only watch the major brands play eachother and I think that number is larger than the number of 4th generation families who have gone to Kansas State games since 1957 and are going to refuse to watch out of spite
so then what the hell are you talking about? How are they going to gain viewers if those people are already viewing it?
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:32 pm to TeddyPadillac
Because they are going to increase the number of games that those casual fans might be interested in watching? Is this really that difficult of a concept?
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:34 pm to WestCoastAg
They're assuming that the diehards will keep watching no matter how much they bastardize the sport. That's where they're miscalculating, IMO.
Again, the exact same miscalculation NASCAR made in the mid 2000s.
Again, the exact same miscalculation NASCAR made in the mid 2000s.
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 1:36 pm
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:38 pm to VADawg
Which is fair. I disagree but I can be wrong. I guess we will just have to wait and see
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:52 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
Because they are going to increase the number of games that those casual fans might be interested in watching? Is this really that difficult of a concept?
how do you expect this to happen?
Are they going to be interested in a 4-4 Texas playing 5-3 Alabama, or 9-3 OSU play 8-4 Michigan?
If you replace the easy wins on the schedule, and every game is a fairly even matchup, then you know what you get? an NFL schedule where most teams will fall between 7-10 wins. If all of the games are marquee games, then none of them are. Is a KC/Cincy regular season game must watch tv? sure if its on sunday night when the casual fan will watch whover is playing regardless. But am i going to make sure i'm near a tv to watch KC/Cincy at 3? no. If they play at 3 in the playoffs, then yeah i'm watchign.
Is this really that difficult to understand?
the regular season matters, or at least it did. it's why all SEC fans will tune into any game where Bama or UGA or OSU or Michigan is about to lose to Miss St, or Kentucky, or Minnesota, or Purdue.
You get a text from a buddy "hey Miss State about to beat Bama". so you stop what you're doing and go find a tv or pull it up on your phone so you can watch them lose.
What drives viewership for those big teams is the smaller teams that hate them and want to see them lose, much like why the Cowboys have such high viewership, b/c people want to see them lose.
Posted on 8/10/23 at 1:53 pm to VADawg
Broadcasters want and will pay for better matchups. The easy solution that wouldn't create this mess was a combination of the following: everyone to stop scheduling FCS teams, conferences to have more conference games, P5 teams scheduling more OOC p5 games. Since there is so much autonomy among teams and conferences for scheduling and the NCAA is an incompetent clown show (and power brokers reward record over resume time and again), the broadcasters incentivized bringing more brands into fewer leagues.
Ultimately, what everyone wants (and the search for more money) could have been handled by the status quo doing smart things in coordination. Because of a catastrophic failure of vision and leadership, the solution was imposed in a way that laid to waste a lot of individual teams.
Ultimately, what everyone wants (and the search for more money) could have been handled by the status quo doing smart things in coordination. Because of a catastrophic failure of vision and leadership, the solution was imposed in a way that laid to waste a lot of individual teams.
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 8/10/23 at 2:00 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
how do you expect this to happen?
Are they going to be interested in a 4-4 Texas playing 5-3 Alabama, or 9-3 OSU play 8-4 Michigan?
If you replace the easy wins on the schedule, and every game is a fairly even matchup, then you know what you get? an NFL schedule where most teams will fall between 7-10 wins. If all of the games are marquee games, then none of them are. Is a KC/Cincy regular season game must watch tv? sure if its on sunday night when the casual fan will watch whover is playing regardless. But am i going to make sure i'm near a tv to watch KC/Cincy at 3? no. If they play at 3 in the playoffs, then yeah i'm watchign.
Is this really that difficult to understand?
the regular season matters, or at least it did. it's why all SEC fans will tune into any game where Bama or UGA or OSU or Michigan is about to lose to Miss St, or Kentucky, or Minnesota, or Purdue.
You get a text from a buddy "hey Miss State about to beat Bama". so you stop what you're doing and go find a tv or pull it up on your phone so you can watch them lose.
What drives viewership for those big teams is the smaller teams that hate them and want to see them lose, much like why the Cowboys have such high viewership, b/c people want to see them lose.
I really appreciated these thoughts. A good analysis in my opinion. I also think that part of what could happen that looks like what you are describing is that teams that would have looked bullet proof in their own smaller conference are going to get exposed by the concentration. This level of contraction could really put a fine point on varying levels of the sport. We may discover, for instance, that Oregon looked great in the PAC 12 but are overmatched against much of the BIG whatever it is. Let's take it to something that subverts expectations though, what if we discover that OU is much worse playing in the SEC but Texas' brand of football fares much better. It's going to be interesting, but I'm not sure we will all be better for it. More brand name matchups is in theory good. If it makes everyone mediocre by record, though, it will just be the NFL with the potential to run an option play every now and again.
And nary a new fan will be reaped by it. I actually think broadcasters are counting on consistently capturing the existing audiences with competitive games, not really making a whole new audience. I can tell an ad buyer that eyes will be around a lot longer for Oregon and Michigan State than they will be for Oregon and South West Missouri State.
This post was edited on 8/10/23 at 2:03 pm
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