re: ATL Thread | offseason hot takes + discussion

Alex Anthopoulos after discussing Correa to the Mets, "I was really glad he ended up with the Giants". Guess what, Alex?

So it's going to be interesting to see if this philosophy works. Locking up young talent has a lot of upside. But it also comes with a lot of risks. You have to get them agree to the long term deal at a lower rate. This has worked pretty well sans Dansby, Freddie, and Max (no idea if they were offered extensions, and if so, when they were offered). But not every young player will pan out. Imagine in year 5 of a long term Francoeur or Heyward contract. I'd imagine the Padres are possibly regretting their contract with Tatis, though that has more to do with off the field acts.
Long term veteran contracts are also risky but moreso due to injuries and the contract not being worth it the last few years. But I still maintain that in 10 years, 25 million won't move the needle nearly as much as it does now. Unless Cohen forces a salary cap. Then all bets are off.

Dansby's Deal with the Cubs -

$7 million signing bonus.

2023: $13 mill salary
2024: $25 mill
2025: $27 mill
2026: $27 mill
2027: $27 mill
2028: $26 mill
2029: $25 mill

Good for him. Still dissappointed we couldn't re-sign him. He was the Captain and team leader. It'll hurt.


Hope we lock Fried up.

quote:

---

understand to a degree the thought process of wanting Olson over Freddie, but it just feels like we gave up a lot of prospects to still spend the same amount

---

Pretty much. I understood not budging on money with Freddie when I thought we were a 150ish mil payroll team. Buy letting Freddie walk made zero sense when our payroll went up to 200 mil that same season. Just a dumb waste of resources.

So are we just never going to be a lux tax team if Dansby taking a lot less didn’t make sense?

If so, that’s insanely dumb and we really need Liberty Media to get the frick out.

quote:

---

If so, that’s insanely dumb and we really need Liberty Media to get the frick out.

---

Your ire needs to be directed at Terry McGuirk.

It doesn't make sense at all.

I understand not wanting to be stuck with a big bad contract in the final couple of years. We've had a few of them -

BJ Upton
Ozuna's current deal
Dan Uggla in the last 2-3 years of his deal
Cole Hamels 1 year deal didn't work out for us

So I get understand some of it.

But - we're in position to win now.

And with Dansby's work ethic, desire to win and his leadership.... $140 over 6 is pretty close to what we're paying Riley and Olson per year.

It's dissappointing ...

Having said that, we will need those dollars to keep our pitching staff strong over the next 3-5 years. So maybe that was a major part of AA's decision not to put those dollars towards our Short Stop.

Our young pitching is going to get expensive too.

quote:

---

Our young pitching is going to get expensive too.

---

Let's home he can extend them because we know he won't sign them if they reach FA.

Wonder if Jazz Chisholm can play short.

quote:

---

I just hope we change our hitting philosophy this year, especially now that the shift is gone and base hits gain some value again. It was infuriating at times how we lacked situational awareness at the plate by not being able to put a ball in play because 1-9 would be asked to go up there and hit a home run, leading to a strikeout.

---

I agree. Yet, you go on to whine the next 4 pages about losing the worst offender of this very philosophy you’re complaining about. Dansby got a taste for hitting a few homers in ‘19 and has been pull happy ever since. And while 25 home runs is nice from the SS position, it’s not enough to justify his long slumps when he simply refuses to go the other way. This was by far the best offensive season of his career, but he still struck out 182 times to just 48 walks. Isn’t that a stat (SO:BB ratio) that you’ve referenced the importance of on here?

Let me preface this by saying I really like Dansby and wanted him back. I think he’s great defensively (but don’t some of the metrics not value his defense as much I do with my eyeballs? I seem to remember some past arguments when I was arguing he was a great defensive SS while being shouted down by someone trying to shove some analytics down my throat). But you’re right that this lineup has way too much swing and miss. I was listening to a podcast a month or so ago and they were talking about LF, and the guy was wanting a guy like Nimmo (he turned out to be way too expensive, but someone like him) because he thought the lineup needed someone who could actually put the ball in play consistently.

He recited some stats about our all or nothing approach. I think we were 2nd in MLB in hard hit rate and exit velo, but near the bottom in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. And also near the bottom in making contact with those pitches. We were the only team in baseball to make the playoffs at the bottom in those 2. There were a couple who made the playoffs swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, but they were both in the top 10 in making contact on those. So they were at least staying in the at-bats, being competitive by shortening their swings and at least fouling balls off. We were still trying to hit the ball 420 feet and whiffing.

Again, not saying I didn’t want Dansby back—I did. But a change in approach, even with a lesser player, could make the lineup as a whole better than the sum of its parts. Can we not do better than Kevin Seitzer? I’m not sure how well he’s thought of as a hitting coach, but I’m not a huge fan. And didn’t I read something about him being kind of a POS or an a-hole or something? Was there maybe an incident in his past? Or am I making that up?

quote:

---

Kevin Seitzer? I’m not sure how well he’s thought of as a hitting coach

---

From everything I've read he's very respected and the guys love him.

So for all of my fellow nega Braves, if AA lands Bryan Reynolds, how much better will you feel? Of course, this would depend on what was given up. And while I’m sure it will make me feel better temporarily, I’ll still have concerns about long term given refusal of signing FAs in their prime.
Already seeing Twitter talk about Devers to the Dodgers or Phillies. And you know Ohtani will end up with the Mets, Padres, or Dodgers.
Make no mistake about it, though. Come March 30th, I’ll be taking the day off to watch. Possibly even making the trip over. Can’t get here fast enough.