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re: ATL Thread | offseason hot takes + discussion

Posted on 12/9/22 at 12:26 pm to
Posted by SteelerBravesDawg
Member since Sep 2020
43337 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 12:26 pm to
Look at Jimenez 's fIP. It's over a full run lower than his career ERA, which tells me that he's been pitching on a bad team.

Malloy was still 2 years away from contributing.
Posted by auyushu
Surprise, AZ
Member since Jan 2011
9977 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Malloy was still 2 years away from contributing.



Wut? He literally ended last year in AAA and raked there. He would be ready by June/July most likely, if not sooner.

I actually expect Jimenez to pitch really well for us, but that doesn't change the fact he only comes with one year of control.

The Malloy trade is something I expect a team like the Padres who are desperately trying to win a championship before their window closes to do, not a team like the Braves to do (who are in the middle of a window and need bats in the OF and at DH).

The fact we received cash back from the Tigers also means we paid more in prospects because of it. Which is particularly annoying since we lost a bunch of money in the stupid Will Smith for Odor trade at the end of last year. It might wind up a big nothingburger, or Malloy may be a 2-3 WAR OF for cheap while we are looking for a decent LF.
This post was edited on 12/9/22 at 12:39 pm
Posted by 21zereaux
Member since Aug 2017
1535 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 12:39 pm to
One other thing to bring up, with the new rule changes:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts

-Pitchers are limited to two disengagements (pickoff attempts or step-offs) per plate appearance. However, this limit is reset if a runner or runners advance during the plate appearance.
-If a third pickoff attempt is made, the runner automatically advances one base if the pickoff attempt is not successful.


This, in theory, with the larger bases should lead to more base-stealing attempts. Acuna, Albies, Harris, and Grissom (if he plays) will be stealing more potentially. It would be nice to have a LF who can run as well.

Do you think these particular new rules will help/hurt the Braves?

edit - size differential https://twitter.com/DanClarkSports/status/1501309257496489984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

This post was edited on 12/9/22 at 12:50 pm
Posted by POCKET
Member since Nov 2011
2653 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 12:40 pm to
Prior to trade - he should be ready mid season

Immediately after trade - he is at least a year away

After others question trade - he is at least two years away
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
48392 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

Malloy was still 2 years away from contributing.


He went from A to AAA last year and had a good showing in the Arizona Fall League. He was going to start this season in Gwinnett. That's closer than 2 years, IMO. That's someone who gets called up this season if he's swinging a hot bat and Ozuna/Rosario suck again.

quote:

Look at Jimenez 's fIP. It's over a full run lower than his career ERA, which tells me that he's been pitching on a bad team.


Jiminez's FIP by season:

2017- 5.84
2018- 2.90
2019- 4.66
2020- 6.72
2021- 5.22
2022- 2.00

Most of those numbers are ugly. Can't blame all of that on a bad team. The Braves are clearly banking on 2022 being more real than 2021, 2020, or 2019, but this seems like a huge risk.
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
48392 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

Do you think these particular new rules will help/hurt the Braves?


My first thought was thank God the Red Sox signed Kenley for 2/$32M. He's going to struggle to adjust to it and that would have been just as risky as the Jimenez trade.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
81275 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Malloy was still 2 years away from contributing.



It's funny that you say this so assertively when you were asking who Malloy was in one of the ATL threads not that long ago.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
81275 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

At this point do any of you believe that Dansby will be the Braves starting shortstop next year? I don't see it personally.


I think there is a chance, but now I think there is a better chance that he is a Cub than a Brave.

I'm not attached to Dansby enough to think he makes or breaks this team. But throwing Vaughn (a dude who was playing A-ball less than a year ago) into the fire to replace one of the game's best defensive SS to save money is a terrible way to develop players and not a good look for a franchise that's a contender.

Before anyone brings up Jeremy Pena and Correa, remember that Pena was considered one of the best SS prospects in the game. That's not Vaughn, the scenarios aren't comparable. Good player, potential to be a plus-guy, but still very much a work in progress, especially defensively.
This post was edited on 12/9/22 at 2:30 pm
Posted by McGregor
Member since Feb 2011
7066 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

He literally ended last year in AAA and raked there.

hit .280 in 8 games I mean that's fine and all but 8 games.
Posted by auyushu
Surprise, AZ
Member since Jan 2011
9977 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

hit .280 in 8 games ? I mean that's fine and all but 8 games.


Did you really just try and use freaking batting average to say how someone was hitting? Really? Come on in to this century.

He posted an .864 OPS in AAA and posted an .862 OPS for the entire year. He also posted an .880+ OPS in the Arizona fall league. He raked all year long, doesn't matter what level you are talking about. He did the same thing Grissom did offensively last year, he just didn't make it to the majors.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24964 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 6:51 pm to
I’ll preface this by saying that yes he helped bring them a WS championship. And while I’m mildly bothered by the lack of moves thus far, I think it’s more due to an increasing need for immediate gratification over the years.
With that all being said, if the reports are true that there has been a lack of communication between AA and Dansby and now reports saying Dansby is bothered by this lack of communication, would that lead you to have a different opinion of AA’s tactics? Whether you feel that Dansby is worth the chase or not, you’d think he’d be given the courtesy of actually having thorough discussions. Sounds like what happened with Freddie last year. AA’s philosophy of only dealing with agents is probably not a bad one but there has to be exceptions. Had he called Freddie last year he would still be a Brave.
It broke my heart when Murph was traded. But it also helped start an unprecedented run. And Murphy was also on board with it.
One of the greatest attributes to anyone in a leadership/management position is flexibility. Sounds like he’s not willing to make any exceptions to his way of doing things.
- extend young players
- sign cheap reclamation projects
- no big FA signings
It has worked thus far. But the next few years will be a big test.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
81275 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 11:02 pm to
quote:

David O'Brien @DOBrienATL
4m
They’ve never said payroll doesn’t matter. AA said they could go over luxury-tax threshold but only if deal made sense for them. After Odorizzi trade exactly 1 month ago I was told they didn’t intend to be luxury-tax team. With 1 significant add they will be, but they aren’t yet.


Welp, that means we're likely standing pat.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24964 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 11:11 pm to
Assuming you’re right. And no “significant” additions to be made. Grissom/Arcia at SS
Ozuna/Rosario platoon in left. Or bring in Duval if he’s cheap enough?
Contreras/d’Arnaud at C/DH
They’re an injury away from risking the division streak. That’s a weak bench.
Posted by POCKET
Member since Nov 2011
2653 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 8:04 am to
If we do not intend to be a luxury tax team then Duval, or any other halfway notable name, would not be cheap enough unless we can offload a contract. Pina is the only one I see being realistic and that’s only $4M. Think we are stuck with Ozuna and Rosario.

CBT threshold is $233M and I think we were at $228M.

Also, would leave almost no room for mid season additions.

Even if we wanted to stay under, seems like it would be pretty difficult.
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
48392 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 8:26 am to
quote:

AA’s philosophy of only dealing with agents is probably not a bad one but there has to be exceptions


He's going to do everything strictly by the book since the organization got caught doing the international signing shenanigans.
Posted by sorantable
Member since Dec 2008
54445 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 9:55 am to
quote:

They’re an injury away from risking the division streak.

TBF we shouldn’t have won it this year.

The Mets and the Phillies are going to be objectively better next year. We won’t be. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ll be surprised if we make the playoffs. You can’t just let leaders like Freddie and Dansby walk and chug on like they never mattered. We missed Freddie last year more than anyone wants to admit, and we’ll miss Dansby even more.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24964 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 10:43 am to
quote:

He's going to do everything strictly by the book since the organization got caught doing the international signing shenanigans.

You can’t talk to free agents? That sounds like a crappy rule.

And I can’t wait for next off season. When the Mets sign Ohtani to a 10/$500 million deal, the Phillies sign Devers to a 10/$450 million and the Dodgers trade their 18th and 20th best prospects for Burnes.
This post was edited on 12/10/22 at 11:06 am
Posted by Undertow
Member since Sep 2016
9136 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 11:10 am to
The Mets played above their heads in the regular season. The Phillies played above their head in the postseason.

That said, I think the Mets and Braves are about even right now with the Phillies a tick beneath them.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24964 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 11:10 am to
quote:

The Mets and the Phillies are going to be objectively better next year.


Phillies definitely. Mets are about where they were last year but they won 100 games last year and are likely not done this year. Padres are better. Cards are better. I guess you could consider the Braves being better getting Allbies back and hopefully a healthier Acuna. Gonna be interesting for sure.
Posted by diremustang
Member since Oct 2017
2287 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 11:25 am to
quote:

The Mets and the Phillies are going to be objectively better next year
Dansby was pretty much the only guy who exceeded established expectations last year. Acuna was a shell of himself, Olson under preformed, Albies was never healthy, and rosario went from solid to atrocious. All of those guys regressing close to their career numbers, plus a full season of Harris and more Contreras still give one of the best lineups in the league.

quote:

but I’ll be surprised if we make the playoffs
And who exactly beats us out in the worst case scenario? The 81 win giants, who are currently much worse, or the 86 win brewers who have gone sideways and are still rumored to be looking at a full tear down
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