re: ATL Thread | 2023 offseason hot takes + discussion

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No it does not. Your whole premise of "as long as AA adds a TOR at the deadline" sounds great, except beyond last year, he has never shown that he is willing to make a move for a big piece at the deadline.

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I think he probably plans to do something at the deadline, then realizes the prices are too high because more teams are in contention with an expanded playoff, then backs off.

You would think he would learn by now, but we will see.

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He didn't "price himself out" of anything

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AA felt whatever price Dansby wanted, he wasn’t worth it. We have a top 5 payroll and a 5+ year window. I don’t understand why people act like it’s 2008

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We have a top 5 payroll and a 5+ year window. I don’t understand why people act like it’s 2008

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My issue is that I think leadership seems content just making the playoffs, and everything after that is supposed to just be gravy for the fans. And I think when you have stars on cheap deals and an open window like we do you should be trying to bring home a championship every year.

2021 was an improbable year, I think if you could simulate that season 100 times we win the WS once or twice based on the performances you got out of guys who hadn't done it before and haven't really done it since. The past two years we have gone into the season with flaws even a slightly plugged-in fan could see, and then didn't address those at the deadline.

So while yes this FO did bring us 2021, they are living off a year where they got a bit lucky grabbing out of the bargin bin at the deadline, and I think the perception is vastly different had they not been fortunate with those acquisitions.

They deserve all the credit even if there was a bit of luck involved, don't get me wrong or assume I'm saying 2021 was just a fluke, because it wasn't. I'm just saying we kind of got rewarded for successfully doing a low success rate thing once and now are letting a window pass us by assuming we can do the same thing again.

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The baseball playoffs are the most random playoffs in all of sports

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Hockey says hello.

And there is more randomness than most sports, sure. Getting trounced two years in a row in similar fashion isn't really random though, is it?

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Not as random as baseball, but there is some randomness

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I know the studies I'm assuming you're citing. I think there are some flaws there in terms of context of the sports.

One issue with it is that we assume teams who won 10 or even 20 games more than another team are x% better than the team with fewer wins based on the differential. The problem there is that in other sports you're playing your best against another team's best every single night, and thats almost never the case in baseball until the playoffs.

Baseball also has a higher % of teams making meaningful additions to their lineups late in the year. The trade deadline is so late in the year that even if a team gets significantly better it doesn't give enough time for their overall record to reflect that.

So the TLDR there is that baseball isn't really as random as it seems. Not that it isn't, but I think its certainly more predictable than a sport where a big part of the offense is deflecting the puck off someone and it going in the net

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My issue is that I think leadership seems content just making the playoffs

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Braves were far and away the best team last year. Where leadership failed was to add a significant piece at the trade deadline. They don’t want to leverage the future to perhaps win 1 WS.

Based off what the dodgers have done, if they don’t add a 2/3 starter this offseason it’ll be a failure.

LINK

Grissom to Boston for Chris Sale

Out of left field. If he can healthy, big if though.

Guessing red Sox kick in half his salary

63. BUT if he can stay healthy that’s a nice get

4+ ERA