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re: ATL Thread | 2023 offseason hot takes + discussion
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:26 am to RunningJacket
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:26 am to RunningJacket
Our starters and pitchers weren’t the ones who choked in the post season. Just sayin’
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 7:27 am
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Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:10 am to YStar
It’s a tiny sample size. I agree with everyone that it’s a big problem if Bryce Elder is starting a playoff game next fall, but for all the gnashing of teeth about this extreme need to add another starter, Fried and Strider are going to be pitching game 1 and game 2 and likely game 5 anyway. Fried in particular has to be better than he’s been the last two years in the playoffs. But the offense has been a much bigger issue than the pitching in the postseason.
We saw 162 games this season and I think everyone in this thread would have said going into the playoffs that our biggest areas of concern were, in order: 1. Bullpen 2. Rotation 3. Offense
In the tiny 4 game sample size we got it was clearly the exact opposite.
You can’t draw much of anything from 4 games in this sport but the 2 frontline guys have to better for sure and the offense has to be much, much better. The bullpen was clearly the weak link on last year’s team despite the good playoff performance and I think they’ve done a solid job there so far and obviously that’s the easiest place to add in season.
We saw 162 games this season and I think everyone in this thread would have said going into the playoffs that our biggest areas of concern were, in order: 1. Bullpen 2. Rotation 3. Offense
In the tiny 4 game sample size we got it was clearly the exact opposite.
You can’t draw much of anything from 4 games in this sport but the 2 frontline guys have to better for sure and the offense has to be much, much better. The bullpen was clearly the weak link on last year’s team despite the good playoff performance and I think they’ve done a solid job there so far and obviously that’s the easiest place to add in season.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:55 am to volfan30
Everyone is correct. The hitters got shut down by a legit teams starting pitchers the last 2 post seasons. Meanwhile, our starting pitchers did not shut down our opponent. It’s a crapshoot come October but I believe AA has built the Braves to have a great chance just like several other teams have great chances. But none of us know who is even going to be on the field come October for the Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, etc. Did anyone see a blister taking down our golden boy? The only thing I can say for sure is that Freddie Freeman will play over 150 games and be consistent. That is simply who he is.
What we aren’t having to talk about is filling a hole at 1B, 3B, or CF. We also don’t have to discuss who is catching or turning double plays. In other words, if we are down to discussing 4th and 5th starters then we are in good shape. And you know AA will make some in season moves. It sounds like Iglesias is on the block so I expect him traded for another legit SP at some point before or during the season. Then everyone can say we don’t have a closer.
What we aren’t having to talk about is filling a hole at 1B, 3B, or CF. We also don’t have to discuss who is catching or turning double plays. In other words, if we are down to discussing 4th and 5th starters then we are in good shape. And you know AA will make some in season moves. It sounds like Iglesias is on the block so I expect him traded for another legit SP at some point before or during the season. Then everyone can say we don’t have a closer.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:29 am to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
Well I trust AA
SHOCKING NEW DEVELOPMENT
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:48 am to RunningJacket
quote:
The hitters got shut down by a legit teams starting pitchers the last 2 post seasons.
I think its time to come to terms with the fact that our guys' hitting in the postseason might just kind of be who they are that time of year.
The reason the postseason is so different is that you're removing a lot of variables/asterisks from the equation... you get the other team's best every single night. You're not playing against some triple A scrub in a spot start. You aren't getting the other team's best pitcher the day after a late flight because they went to extras the night before in another city, you're not seeing pitchers half-arse the scouting report because its a long season and they have a lot going on. These guys are dialed in against us, they are more prepared, and they generally shut us down. The ball also just doesn't jump off the bat quite like it does in the warmer months once you get to October, and this team relies on the home run a little too much imo.
There also might be a little something to us not having a charismatic leader in the clubhouse, but I'm not really big on that kind of stuff.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:01 am to VolSquatch
Way too small of a sample size to make conclusions like that.
We have faced Zack Wheeler, who is arguably the best pitcher in the NL, twice in the last two postseasons, and we are 2-0 in those games. We’ve faced Ranger Suarez (who many Phillies fans wanted moved to the bullpen midway through the season) 3 times and we are 0-3. And Suarez has faced Fried/Strider on regular rest in all 3 games.
Is Ranger Suarez someone we can’t hit due to our approach, I certainly don’t believe that.
Just very fluky when you’re trying to make sweeping conclusions based on a sample size that is that small in comparison to a 162 game season.
Would anyone be shocked if we faced Ranger Suarez this October and he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings?
Outside of Elder starting game 3 due to the Morton injury I don’t think there’s anything anyone in this thread would do differently/change if you could go back to the trade deadline.
If you said we were fully healthy offensively and got 4/5 starts with Fried/Strider on regular rest I think everyone signs up for that and lets the chips fall where they may.
We have faced Zack Wheeler, who is arguably the best pitcher in the NL, twice in the last two postseasons, and we are 2-0 in those games. We’ve faced Ranger Suarez (who many Phillies fans wanted moved to the bullpen midway through the season) 3 times and we are 0-3. And Suarez has faced Fried/Strider on regular rest in all 3 games.
Is Ranger Suarez someone we can’t hit due to our approach, I certainly don’t believe that.
Just very fluky when you’re trying to make sweeping conclusions based on a sample size that is that small in comparison to a 162 game season.
Would anyone be shocked if we faced Ranger Suarez this October and he gave up 6 runs in 3 innings?
Outside of Elder starting game 3 due to the Morton injury I don’t think there’s anything anyone in this thread would do differently/change if you could go back to the trade deadline.
If you said we were fully healthy offensively and got 4/5 starts with Fried/Strider on regular rest I think everyone signs up for that and lets the chips fall where they may.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:08 am to volfan30
How many seasons in a row do you keep getting the same results before you shake things up? Whatever the issue is, they just aren’t getting it done in the playoffs when it matters most. So how many seasons in a row would it take before you say ok they obviously need to make some kind of move bc the current makeup of the team ain’t working? 3? 4? 5? I just wanna know what it would take before you’d say enough is enough
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:12 am to Finkle is Einhorn
If we start to see cracks or diminishing results. There are no signs of that at all. We had back to back NLDS losses in 18-19 and then lost in G7 of the NLCS and won the WS the two years after that. If we win 89 games and lose in the NLCS this year I think I would be much more likely to make major changes after that than if we win 103 and lose in the DS.
I have been to every home playoff game (non COVID seasons) since 2018 except Game 1 of the 2021 NLCS and to a handful of road games including the Yadier Molina bloop over Freddie in 2019 and the clincher in Houston in 21. I obviously don’t think the playoffs don’t matter but I also don’t think they’re a good barometer of team quality. The playoffs are very fun and also very frustrating but I don’t think you can overreact to them. If you’re building great teams that’s all you can do imo and if you give yourself enough chances things will work out for you.
I have been to every home playoff game (non COVID seasons) since 2018 except Game 1 of the 2021 NLCS and to a handful of road games including the Yadier Molina bloop over Freddie in 2019 and the clincher in Houston in 21. I obviously don’t think the playoffs don’t matter but I also don’t think they’re a good barometer of team quality. The playoffs are very fun and also very frustrating but I don’t think you can overreact to them. If you’re building great teams that’s all you can do imo and if you give yourself enough chances things will work out for you.
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 10:18 am
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:44 am to volfan30
Vol, all true. It’s simply a crapshoot. If the Dodgers or Phillies want to spent crazy money on a crapshoot then I have no problem with it. It just means their frustration level will be off the charts if they don’t win it. Roberts knows today that he will be fired if he doesn’t win it next year. He won’t be enjoying next year even if they win 115 games because he knows what the end game could be. Just like us Braves fans. Whether we win 105 or 90 doesn’t matter. All that matters are the 11 to 19 games in October.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:50 am to VolSquatch
quote:
I think its time to come to terms with the fact that our guys' hitting in the postseason might just kind of be who they are that time of year.
I thought it was pretty obvious that they were pressing hard in the series this year. They were swinging at junk that they laid off of all season and their strikeout rate skyrocketed. They didn't look like themselves at all, and I think they're intimidated by the Phillies.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:52 am to volfan30
quote:
Way too small of a sample size to make conclusions like that.
The sample size argument doesn't hold water if you actually read what I wrote.
Postseason baseball is VERY different. We've seen the Dodgers blast teams in the regular season for about a decade now with 1 WS to show for it that many don't even count because it was during COVID. Like I said already, Zack Wheeler (or any decent pitcher) in the middle of the week coming off a travel day in the middle of the summer is just fundamentally different from the one you see in October, and its possible some of our guys just aren't built for it.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 11:04 am to VADawg
quote:
They were swinging at junk that they laid off of all season
A study on fangraphs showed pitchers that have a good secondary pitch like a curve or changeup use it more in the postseason, in fact there is a significant uptick. We are a fastball hitting team.
Fastball reliant pitchers do also increase their fastball usage in the postseason, but if they are a fastball pitcher thats their best pitch and kind of negates us a bit. The quality of fastball we are seeing in October goes up.
quote:
their strikeout rate skyrocketed
See point 1, and also our strikeout rate in the regular season is largely build on mashing bad pitchers.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 11:40 am to VolSquatch
quote:
charismatic leader in the clubhouse
Ozzie is that guy.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 11:48 am to RunningJacket
quote:
Everyone is correct. The hitters got shut down by a legit teams starting pitchers the last 2 post seasons. Meanwhile, our starting pitchers did not shut down our opponent. It’s a crapshoot come October but I believe AA has built the Braves to have a great chance just like several other teams have great chances. But none of us know who is even going to be on the field come October for the Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, etc. Did anyone see a blister taking down our golden boy? The only thing I can say for sure is that Freddie Freeman will play over 150 games and be consistent. That is simply who he is.
What we aren’t having to talk about is filling a hole at 1B, 3B, or CF. We also don’t have to discuss who is catching or turning double plays. In other words, if we are down to discussing 4th and 5th starters then we are in good shape. And you know AA will make some in season moves. It sounds like Iglesias is on the block so I expect him traded for another legit SP at some point before or during the season. Then everyone can say we don’t have a closer.
quote:
RunningJacket
The end times are here. I agree w/one of your posts.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 12:00 pm to volfan30
quote:
I obviously don’t think the playoffs don’t matter but I also don’t think they’re a good barometer of team quality. The playoffs are very fun and also very frustrating but I don’t think you can overreact to them
This is how I feel as well.
The MLB playoffs are the biggest crapshoot in sports. It's all about who gets hot at the right time, not who the best team over the course of the season has been, see Texas this year and the Braves in '21.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 12:15 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Steeler, we probably agree on 95% of stuff. I just don’t get as worked up as others do if someone has a different opinion. I love these type of unmoderated message boards because it’s fun to talk so similar people. I enjoy all the posters even ones with dawg in their handle. I’ve been watching sports closely for 40 of my 53 years and patterns are obvious at this point.
I would have loved for our Braves to have kept Freddie and signed Ohtani and Gray and traded for Soto. But I also understand you can’t buy championships in baseball. All you can do is make the playoffs (a whole lot easier now with wildcards) and then pray. And if you get hot you can carry a year like 2021 to your grave. But those contracts the Dodgers just signed will have to be paid for at some point. And just assuredly as Ozzie or Ronald will tweak a finger or wrist sliding head first, Ohtani and Betts will pull a hammy.
If the Braves wanted to bring in a legit inning eating top 20 pitcher there is a guy sitting there named Bauer who would give us everything that Glasnow is hoped to give the Dodgers. But since sports has morphed into politics they won’t which shows winning is only a small part.
I would have loved for our Braves to have kept Freddie and signed Ohtani and Gray and traded for Soto. But I also understand you can’t buy championships in baseball. All you can do is make the playoffs (a whole lot easier now with wildcards) and then pray. And if you get hot you can carry a year like 2021 to your grave. But those contracts the Dodgers just signed will have to be paid for at some point. And just assuredly as Ozzie or Ronald will tweak a finger or wrist sliding head first, Ohtani and Betts will pull a hammy.
If the Braves wanted to bring in a legit inning eating top 20 pitcher there is a guy sitting there named Bauer who would give us everything that Glasnow is hoped to give the Dodgers. But since sports has morphed into politics they won’t which shows winning is only a small part.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 12:22 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
Ozzie is that guy.
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Posted on 12/15/23 at 12:41 pm to RunningJacket
quote:
Bauer
Yes, please.
Posted on 12/15/23 at 12:51 pm to VolSquatch
Roll your eyes all you want, but all of the insiders and beat reporters say the same thing about Ozzie; that he is the emotional leader in that clubhouse and that he is the guy that holds the others accountable. Not Freddie, not Dansby, it's Ozzie. He's the one guy that the Braves couldn't afford to lose.
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 12/15/23 at 12:59 pm to RunningJacket
quote:
If the Braves wanted to bring in a legit inning eating top 20 pitcher there is a guy sitting there named Bauer who would give us everything that Glasnow is hoped to give the Dodgers. But since sports has morphed into politics they won’t which shows winning is only a small part.
Bauer is a horse there's no denying that but he has a well-earned rep going back to his days at UCLA as a clubhouse cancer and I don't want that anywhere near this clubhouse.
And I don't think it's even politics w/Bauer, he's just an overall POS.
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