re: 4th and 15: The NFL Live Crew is as Dumb as Mike Smith

Anyone who thinks Mike Smith made the right decision is a moron. Kicking the FG is the 100% wrong decision and it is not up for debate

It was a terrible call. I would love someone who agrees with the call to walk me through how kicking a FG increases Atlanta's chances at winning?

Matt Bryant is a career 55% kicker from 50+ yards. Let's give him a two-thirds chance at making the kick (67%) since he is indoors and has been better at long FGs since coming to ATL.

So he kicks the FG and makes it, which is no guarantee. Then, the Falcons have one of two options:

1) Onside kick. Someone mentioned onside kicks have a 20% success rate. That isn't true in this case. Expected onside kicks are something like 8% successful (unexpected are above 50%). Making the FG and getting an onside kick is probably less than a 5% probability. They would still have to drive 20 yards to give Bryant another 45-50 yard attempt. This option probably had about 3% chance of the Falcons winning the game.

2) Trusting your defense to stop the Saints. Several people have pointed out that the Falcons shut down the Saints on their last few drives. Small sample size. You could just as easily point to other small sample sizes to make the opposite argument. Namely, that the Saints have looked bad offensively during games, then scored when it mattered (TB, SF, and NE - a loss- come to mind). Frankly, neither argument is a good one. The Saints have a great offense. A first down essentially seals the game (the Saints would have needed 2 first downs to kneel it out, but one would've likely given the Falcons the ball with no time and a bad spot). This scenario is a lot trickier then the onside kick one, but you are counting on: 1) made 52 yard FG, 2) the Saints, a great offense, going 3 and out, and 3) the Falcons driving anywhere from 30-55 yards to give Bryant another long FG.

On the other hand, with the 4th and 15 you have a shot at the first down, which would put you in the red zone. You still have to score the TD and the odds of picking up 4th and 15 are against you, but I'd argue it is significantly higher than either of the two above scenarios.
PLUS... even if you don't pick the 1st down up, the game isn't over. You are basically in the same situation as scenario two in terms of field position. The difference is you need a TD instead of a FG.

I'd like to see the counter argument, but I can't see how this was anything other than a terrible decision.

I don't think it was terrible decision either. If they make the field goal there down 1 with all 3 timeouts and the 2 min warning.

With that said, I would have gone for it but I don't think kicking the fg was this big time awful call and all that.

Its one thing to give blaine gabbert the ball in that situation but drew brees?

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Matt Bryant

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Matt Ryan

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Woah.

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You kick the FG to make it a 17-16 game

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Not as a 2-8 team. You go for it there, don't put the pressure on your defense to hold the Saints offense to a 3 and out.

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Mike Smith's decision has to be among the worst of the NFL season

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Not even close.

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There is no way you can kick there and hope to get an onside kick (likely < 10% chance) or a stop AND drive to FG range again.

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Didn't watch the Saints 9ers game last week?

He had all timeouts and the 2 if I'm not mistaken


onside kick


I will say that Mike Smith fricked up. 2-8, you have to go for that. Kicking the field goal was the right call for about 20 other teams, the Falcons obviously not being one of them.

I don't think Smith made a wrong decision. No decision had high probability. However, I go for it on 4th down (plus I use 3rd down differently knowing that). If you kick, you must accomplish at least 2 feats of low probability. If you go for it, you may only have to accomplish 1 feat of low probability. That is always my rule of thumb.