re: 2022 Formula 1 Season Thread

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While possible I don't see going into the last 3-4 races in a three-way fight for the WCC, mainly due to the cap. Mercedes's burn rate is almost certainly much higher than RBR and Ferrari right now.

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Highest burn rate with the least amount of time allowed to burn isn't a great place to be.

First, Mercedes got their car fundamentally wrong compared to Red Bull and Ferrari. They are over a second down on race pace. The biggest issue with fixing their error is it can't be tested in the tunnel and there is very limited ability to replicate it in CFD especially when you consider the computing power limited now. I don't think there is anything like a second in the main and beam wing structure, if there is then they made an incredibly massive error for a team like Mercedes, they are dealing with known knowns there.

I think they are down on power and though it isn't the major issue it will be an albatross unless it is mainly electrical and they can fix it before the homologation.

While anything is possible it would be unprecedented for them to come back from where they are at to compete for the WCC and probably the WDC. The closest analog would be 2009, the major difference there is everyone could see the reason Brawn had the advantage and could copy it with no spending cap. Merc can't see under the floor of the Red Bull and Ferrari and the inability to test it means throwing shite against the wall to see what sticks, that is practically a needle in the haystack when the cap is considered.

The whole time Merc is spending money looking for over a second RBR and Ferrari will be spending money for tenths and hundredths I think the moving target will be too much for Merc to overcome. I have been on the bad end of hope too many times to bet on it. The cap changes everything when you come out of the gate with a donkey.

If anyone believes in Merc they are +700 now and Hamilton is +1000 for the championships.

When it comes to power I look at how Ham fingerwalked by K Mag with DRS while the next time by Kevin essentially blew the Merc in the ditch he went by so fast while he had the DRS.

The Mercs are having trouble getting by others with DRS so I'd say they do have a power disadvantage. The car can't be so bad aerodynamically, as far as pure drag, to be the reason for such a difference.

And the Haas was also porpoising at Saudi Arabia so that can't be the only Merc issue.

It seems, for now, Merc's solution for porpoising is just to increase the ride height. Which is definitely hurting the drag as well as negating the floor.

Like Obtuse said, they may have seen a drag coefficient crazy low without sidepods, but lack of windtunnel testing meant they couldn't solve problems until they had real world data.

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Personally, and I'm no aero engineer, I would think the small/narrow pods leave too much air hitting the rear tires and suspension which would add drag.

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they don't have an adrian newey but if this is true how could they get it so wrong?

Hubris and a lack of wind tunnel time due to a WCC and WDC battle? I dunno.

All I know is two other teams claim to have looked at it and after some testing threw it in the dumpster.

That's why I always try to warn the newly minted Max and Red Bull fans who rooted so hard against Merc and Lewis last year - Be careful what you wish for.

It very conceivable to see Max win 4-5 WDCs here in a row if Ferrari doesn't stay on top of their game and Mercedes doesn't stage some kind of a miraculous comeback.

You think you got tired of seeing Lewis and Mercedes win all the time? Now try replacing them with Max and Horner for the next few years

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@Obstuse1 - Do you know if this @LappedCars twitter account is any good and can be trusted?

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I don't know anything about that particular Twitter account but if you take in the width and breadth of F1 reporting every team is bringing significant updates to just about every race. I think that nugget might be from some Leclerc quotes over the last few days.

I wouldn't doubt Ferrari among others after looking at data and borescoping the engines they will feel comfortable unlocking more aggressive engine maps. Further, what teams say and what teams do are often just a game of cat and mouse.

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Now try replacing them with Max and Horner for the next few years

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Just need Checo to keep outqualifying Max

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Now try replacing them with Max and Horner for the next few years

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First I don't want any team to dominate the sport... except for Ferrari.

Honestly, if RBR goes on a run I don't think Max or Christian will be as insufferable IF Ferrari is their major competition. I think a big part of the issue was the Christian/Toto and Max/Lewis dynamic. One pair is too much alike and one pair is too different. I also think all four of them would have preferred if they didn't go as deep as they did. The warring was probably a distraction for all of them but once the die was set it was set. I do not see the Mattia/Christian Charles/Max dynamic evolving the same way if they end up as the front runners for the next 3 years.

In my selfish opinion, it is time for a paradigm shift away from fizzy drinks and Johnny come (back) lately teams. I guess since Williams and McLaren seem to have lost the plot it is up to the Scuderia but I honestly wouldn't cry too many tears if McLaren or particularly Williams find a miracle, and I say this hating McLaren.