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re: Would you enter the market now?

Posted on 4/21/23 at 7:30 am to
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133665 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 7:30 am to
quote:

now we’re dealing with the worst market in history
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58518 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 7:36 am to
Laugh all you want to but people my age and younger are quiet quitting the stock market and see how it goes without new suckers putting money in long term. If only there was a way to quit paying social security (since we’ll never get any of that money back either)
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133665 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 7:48 am to
quote:

Laugh all you want
Wait! You were serious about that?!? You actually believe this is the worst stock market in history?!?

It's not even in the top 5 worst stock markets in the last 100 years much less in HISTORY!

The S&P500 Index is UP almost 8% since January 1! Historically, that's almost the annual average for that index for an entire calendar year over the last 70 years!

Maybe it's time that you just accept the idea that you don't know anything about the stock market, or finance in general, and that's why you're getting left out in the dark.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58518 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 7:53 am to
And we loop around to the appeal to expertise where the most prudent thing for me to do is “trust the financial advisor” and let the Edward Jones man or vanguard ding me with fees so I can hopefully pull 3% a year except for the every 3 years the market drops 20%
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
14881 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 8:07 am to
So you don’t like septum piercings or fat chicks? Someone is picky.

Even though everyone on here is downing you, you are right that the stock market isn’t some type of reflection of pure financial science. It’s irrational and there is a huge amount of psychology involved by buyers. It’s not a Ponzi scheme but it is a casino with the long term odds in the investors favor….but it is still a casino.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58518 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 8:29 am to
Thank you baw

I understand the other side of the argument though. The Dow went up like 30000% between 1970 to now, why wouldn’t it keep going? The dows gonna be at 500k in 15 years right?

But we all gotta admit the rocket ship kinda sputtered out when millenials got into their useful investing years, adding to the distrust
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
38521 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 9:47 am to
quote:

now we’re dealing with the worst market in history
The S&P is like 14% off its all-time high and the Nasdaq is down ~23% (and that was off of a CLEARLY overheated high).

You have no sense of history/context if you are describing this as "the worst market in history". It's not even within 3 standard deviations of the worst market in the last 25 years.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58518 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 10:23 am to
The best market in history was February 8, 2021. We had GameStop and the ancient tiger picks rolling. Ben bernanke refers to this period as “white boy summer”

It all crashed on February 9th. That’s when the market realized trump wasn’t gonna take back the White House.


ETA: it’s been fema camp fall/white boy winter ever since
This post was edited on 4/21/23 at 11:03 am
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
38521 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 10:28 am to
quote:

The 30 year olds perception of the market is GameStop which shows how rigged it is. Most of them didn’t have an ancient Tiger to love and pick for them. Also none of them have any money or career prospects. It really do be bleak out here
wut GameStop was a situation that was stunningly easy to avoid. I doubt you are complaining that you weren't able to SHORT it cleanly. It arguably IS rigged in that regard.

quote:

he stock market is dead and a savings account pays better
wut
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58518 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 10:32 am to
quote:

wut GameStop was a situation that was stunningly easy to avoid.

Avoid? That was literally the only good thing to happen financially to most of the people I told about it in their entire lives

I tried to get y’all in at 8 and y’all made fun of me
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133665 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

The best market in history was February 8, 2021.
That's NOT a market. It's a series of trades involving manipulation of a single speculative stock.

And even that is NOT the "best in history."

quote:

Ben bernanke refers to this period as “white boy summer”

A search of the internet shows Ben Bernanke never said the words "white boy summer" about the GameStop manipulation or anything else, anytime, anywhere. If he had there would have been an unbelievable uproar by the usual woke suspects.

Perhaps you're confusing Bernanke with Tom Hanks rapper son who included the lyrics "white boy summer" in one of his rap "songs."

You really need to stop making shite up and go back to posting your garbage on the O-T Lounge.
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6133 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 12:24 pm to
Gaucho may be at least half trolling, but there is data showing that people ~30 and under 1 do not have the money to put into the market like previous generations did and do, 2 don't have the same faith in our long standing financial traditions, and 3 face very large costs in trying to establish their adulthood that will keep them from investing for a much longer time.

With those three truths it's almost a certainty that less money will flow into the markets for at least a generation, possibly more. It is impossible to know what impact that will have, but it certainly doesn't spell "guaranteed market expansion".
Posted by Motownsix
Boise
Member since Oct 2022
3143 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 12:30 pm to
I bought stocks yesterday so yes.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133665 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

but it certainly doesn't spell "guaranteed market expansion".
Who are you quoting with that statement? Certainly not me and it was me you replied to. There is nothing guaranteed about the stock market.
quote:

there is data showing that people ~30 and under 1 do not have the money to put into the market like previous generations
My first stock purchase was when I was 27 years old and it involved buying 10 shares in a local bank that was traded only off of "pink sheet" quotes. I paid $29/share. Not exactly a market moving event. But it was a start. Don't tell me twenty- and thirty-somethings today can't start the same way now.

Maybe millennials would have more investable funds if they stopped buying the latest $1,100 iPhone every time a new model is announced. Instead they want to sit around complaining about how bad their lives are.
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6133 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 1:29 pm to
This is going a bit off the rails and you seem really worked up over this. You're also veering into "those dumb millenials and Gen Z wasting money on avocado toast" territory.

All i'm stating is that it's a verifiable truth that the newer generations aren't showing an eagerness to participate in the market like everyone has over the last 100 years, and that certainly is going to have an impact, possibly a bad one.

Wasn't trying to quote anyone, but the mantra of the the market always recovers and goes up is open to question if the next 40 years of people entering earning age aren't participating at close to the same rate.
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2195 posts
Posted on 4/21/23 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

eagerness to participate in the market like everyone has over the last 100 years, and that certainly is going to have an impact, possibly a bad one


There’s more market participation right now than at any point in the history of the world. What are you talking about?

It’s never been easier. And there’s never been more individual investors in the stock market. Do you not realize this?

Did you think there were more individual investors pushing money in the markets in the 80’s? 90’s? LOL.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
31729 posts
Posted on 4/22/23 at 5:36 pm to
quote:

Maybe millennials would have more investable funds if they stopped buying the latest $1,100 iPhone every time a new model is announced. Instead they want to sit around complaining about how bad their lives are.


If they just wouldn't buy that damned iPhone once a year, in thirty years or so, they would have a decent down payment on a starter home if they didn't save a dollar of it for retirement!

Jokes about old men yelling at clouds aside, people get way too worked up about relatively short term market movement. This is a quick and dirty snapshot of the S&P over the last decade, with a hand drawn, unscientific average line from 2013 until about 2/3 of the way through 2019, continued through the next three years after that point:



My intention is to illustrate that everyone wants to fixate on the "crash", but if you just ignored both the rise and fall over the last few years and just looked at it as an average path, I think everyone would have been happy with the market being above that average slope point. But because of the skyrocket and crash, everyone wants to pretend like the financial world is ending. Just keep plugging away and shite is going to work out just fine.
This post was edited on 4/22/23 at 5:37 pm
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6133 posts
Posted on 4/23/23 at 8:37 am to
I think anyone with some common sense has to consider if the path to extreme wealth through the stock market that we saw over the past 40 years is replicable. Consider the S&P 500 from 1984 to today, so a roughly 40 year stretch. It went from ~200 to 4,000, so a 20x increase. An amazing time to be long term investor.



Is that realistic? Or are more modest returns more likely over the next 20-40 years? I truly don't know the answer, but it does give me pause. Maybe technology shifts mean it goes to heights inconceivable.
Posted by KWL85
Member since Mar 2023
3199 posts
Posted on 4/23/23 at 8:57 am to
Whatever you do, don't listen to El Goucho!

You should get in. Split your money into 3 buckets. Some short-term, medium-term, and long-term. The stock market is the latter two for many. Buy low-cost index fund ETFs. The S&P 500, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 are good options.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
31729 posts
Posted on 4/23/23 at 9:41 am to
I honestly, and obviously, don't know the answer. With that said, one thing that is clear to me is that being a good long term investor going forward is going to require more self-control than it has in the more distant past. Looking at that chart, someone who entered the market in 2000 and tried to buy low and sell high (lulzy) got crushed. But if they just kept plugging away, they are likely very pleased with their portfolio, having bought through all the drips, now that the S&P is sitting above 4k.

Might that change in the future? Of course. But there's no real indication that will be the case. My larger societal concern is that my generation, and the ones coming after, buy into the chicken littleing and double frick themselves on top of the single fricking they are getting with housing.
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