With the ADP report in does the feds lower rates

I've been loading up on REITs in anticipation of it, so Powell probably won't do it.

In all seriousness though, as long as inflation is rising or remaining sticky well above 2%, cutting rates invites a return of inflation increases (like we saw after hikes last year).

Yes, I expect small caps, real estate, energy to benefit.

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Don’t be surprised if the fed cuts rates and the 10 yr and Libor stay put or even go up.

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That would not be good.

They have no choice unless tomorrow is another bs blowout

I will be right again

Lol. When have you been right?

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Well 12mnths ago you and all the clowns claimed there would be no cut

I said .5

I was right. Thats just for starters

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Lol. When have you been right?


Well 12mnths ago you and all the clowns claimed there would be no cut

I said .5

I was right. Thats just for starters
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False. I never make claims like that. You are full of something. You make enough claims that you have to be right occasionally. You have several years of bad posts.

You were predicting drastic changes that never materialized. You were repeating whatever Trump said, and neither of you use data driven decisions. The data has not indicated that we are late on cuts. Powell has been good at his job this year. It seems likely to get a Sept cut, but the risk of inflation is still high. Smart money is on wait and see beyond September.

Thats a long rant of mierda. You could have just said yeah you are always right

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Moody’s and Goldman have inflation peaking in November as the majority of firms lock in price increases related to tariffs

They don’t see tariff price hikes lingering into 2026 because they don’t think firms will slow-walk price increases, instead opting for one or two bursts

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I think the rest of the world may be more dependent on US consumerism than many believe and tariffs will tell the tale on that.

If true, then producers exporting to the US will continue to eat costs because enough profits are still there (and can't be made up elsewhere). If this is the case, we get continued GDP growth, unemployment stalls (or shrinks slightly) while inflation remains sticky well above the target (or possibly increases slightly). We could call this "stagflation-adjacent" (since there's no term for it).

If not true, then exporters will be passing increasing costs down the chain (until they determine what consumers will accept) with those costs being expressed through rising CPI/PCE. With that, we should see slowing GDP growth which would also express through maintained or growing unemployment (read: recession).