What's your thoughts on going all cash just before the midterm elections?

Not a terrible idea, but just remember, the same polls you are talking about all predicted Hillary to win in a landslide. If you sell out then the market goes up similarly to after Trump was elected, you will have lost out.

quote:

---

My thoughts are I would rather lose out on a 5% gain than take a 5% loss.

---

If you go from all invested to all cash you are guaranteeing yourself a loss due to taxes.

I'm not a full time investor, but major swings like 100% invested to 0% invested is a REALLY bad idea. Why would you not just go like 20% cash?

If you're wanting to protect your portfolio from an event, you should be looking into options (puts, specifically) as insurance, in my opinion. If you aren't familiar with options, you should learn about them first (and you have plenty of time to do so before the event).

Using right now as an example, SPY $290 puts with an expiration of January 18, 2019, are at $870 a contract. Since $870 is max loss per $29,000 of SPY shares, your max loss is 3%, excluding fees. Things will change as the market moves onward, of course.

quote:

---

I have not keep a accurate record, but I believe for the last 10 years every time someone suggested doing this they were wrong, and would have lost money had they followed through.

---

That would make sense, since the current bull market (using S&P 500 as benchmark) is on a run of 9 1/2 years. Through Democratic and Republican majorities in Congress and a Democratic and Republican President. Even if (worst or best case, given your allegiance) the House flips Democratic, there is no reasonable explanation for that event to initiate an end to the bull market.

quote:

---

100% invested

---

Not wise

quote:

---

going to all cash

---

Not wise

quote:

---

Any thoughts?

---

You've been a bit lucky.

I read an article recently that suggested that a split Congress would be good for markets. Gridlock would ensue, major disruptive policy changes would be unlikely and any bipartisan deals would likely involve more spending/market stimulus.
LINK

Considering you’d have at least 15% tax, you’d have to have the markets drop more than 15% in this scenario for you to look st breaking even.

I had a client that had this idea back when the DOW was at 16k. He’s still sitting in cash..

I sold all my stock before 2016 thinking Trump would win , the market would crash and I could buy more stock a week later. I was heavy into CSX about $32 a share and I had hundreds. It’s about $69 now and went up so quick I never got back in.

quote:

---

sold all my stock before 2016 thinking Trump would win , the market would crash and I could buy more stock a week later. I was heavy into CSX about $32 a share and I had hundreds. It’s about $69 now and went up so quick I never got back in.

---

Lots of stories like this. People don't have a plan. If you're selling something you want to own, it takes tremendous discipline to get back in.

Market timing is a tough task.