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re: Vanguard’s 10y median forecast for US stocks is 3.9% annually, .6% for large cap growth
Posted on 3/11/25 at 6:16 am to JohnnyKilroy
Posted on 3/11/25 at 6:16 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Btw the biggest bear signal came at the beginning of the year when poster I Love Bama predicted that we'd see 15% annualized returns (on the low end) the next 4-5 years.
That dude was a massive bear through a 3 year period that saw a cumulative 57% percent gain in the S&P500.
When he flipped to bull that was a good signal.
Speaking of signals...
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Posted on 3/11/25 at 6:58 am to slackster
I can’t remember who I talked to about this but we came to the conclusion that you’re stuck where you are now economically forever
They’ve been trying to do this for a long time but basically the people who had money in the late 90s started buying up everything with private equity and the only major thing that gave outsiders wealth was the internet, but then again that was more of a reshuffle where Amazon killed sears and Facebook killed the yellow pages. And the tech bros all grew up rich
Nowadays if you make a scrappy upstart that creates competition the bigs will take you out. If you make a neat product Amazon will steal it and manufacture it themselves
Anyway I hope yall have a house or whatever because if you didnt buy one yet you’ll probably never be able to afford it
They’ve been trying to do this for a long time but basically the people who had money in the late 90s started buying up everything with private equity and the only major thing that gave outsiders wealth was the internet, but then again that was more of a reshuffle where Amazon killed sears and Facebook killed the yellow pages. And the tech bros all grew up rich
Nowadays if you make a scrappy upstart that creates competition the bigs will take you out. If you make a neat product Amazon will steal it and manufacture it themselves
Anyway I hope yall have a house or whatever because if you didnt buy one yet you’ll probably never be able to afford it
Posted on 3/11/25 at 6:59 am to makersmark1
quote:
Does that include dividends?
My suspicion is it’s included. Total return would be the most reasonable way to forecast these things.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 7:31 am to slackster
The big brokerages have predicted similar flat returns repeatedly. They've called 10 of the past couple of downturns.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 7:40 am to slackster
I like companies who consistently increase the dividend.
It’s a slow way to make money, but the best investments I have started as DRIP plans that I have never touched.
It’s a slow way to make money, but the best investments I have started as DRIP plans that I have never touched.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 7:44 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
This would wreck me for retirement.
Yeah, would make things tougher. I'm hoping for 8% average for the next five years. 3.9% would suck donkey balls.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 8:36 am to Bard
quote:
Speaking of signals...
Saw that last night.He also mentioned the day in 2009 when the late Mark Haines {a CNBC host} called the bottom of the bear mkt.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 8:51 am to VABuckeye
quote:
Yeah, would make things tougher. I'm hoping for 8% average for the next five years. 3.9% would suck donkey balls.
Agreed. I'd have to work longer than I expected or save more.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 9:25 am to el Gaucho
quote:
They’ve been trying to do this for a long time but basically the people who had money in the late 90s started buying up everything with private equity and the only major thing that gave outsiders wealth was the internet,
Which created the current appetite for crypto and meme stocks.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 9:36 am to lsuconnman
Does the MT darling, VOO find sub 500 this week? Will we see 450 again?
Posted on 3/11/25 at 10:07 am to lsuconnman
quote:
Which created the current appetite for crypto and meme stocks.
But there won’t ever be another opportunity like that again
They even broke the market to where there won’t be another gamestop
Posted on 3/11/25 at 10:15 am to slackster
Tin foil hat me says they are trying to sell us on the need of using their Vanguard Advisors service. They are quite persistent in selling that to me.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 10:17 am to el Gaucho
quote:still got diamond hands over here!!
gamestop
I'm eventually going to the moon, with or without Elon!1
Posted on 3/11/25 at 10:23 am to JohnnyKilroy
In their defense, we were told by the Fed that QE was ending and they weren't monetizing the debt as well as an expectation that interest rates would normalize. I think... we are done with most of that mumbo jumbo crap now that inflation is a thing again.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 10:24 am to SuperSaint
Apes together strong
Posted on 3/11/25 at 10:39 am to el Gaucho
quote:
But there won’t ever be another opportunity like that again They even broke the market to where there won’t be another gamestop
Never underestimate the power of a clever hustle.
I think the new rule will be that once PE or the banks decide they want a piece, the gig is up.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 1:09 pm to slackster
Well they old be forecasting lots of redemptions and reallocations into fixed income from people retiring which would likely play out worse than this base case you posted
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