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US CPI comes in "hotter than expected"
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:05 am
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:05 am
Just getting a jump on tomorrow's most repeated economic headline. 
***EDIT*** I jinked it. You're welcome.
***EDIT*** I jinked it. You're welcome.
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 7:37 am
13
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:10 am to Bard
Yep. Agree. Markets will shite the bed starting this afternoon if I had to guess.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:10 am to Bard
quote:
Just getting a jump on tomorrow's most repeated economic headline.
Are you clairvoyant?
I think you are correct FYI and we will see the Fed squirm even more trying to work out how they can get 3 rate cuts in this year.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:20 am to Bard
I think it will be the opposite
Im going with Morgan
Im going with Morgan
quote:
Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley declared, " The Descent Begins" The bank sees core CPI inflation coming in at 0.29% MoM in April, with the annual rate at 3.6% year-on-year (YoY).
"Core CPI inflation steps down in April with weaker services as the main driver," wrote the bank. "We expect weaker car insurance inflation, continued rents disinflation, and lower healthcare. In turn, core goods remain negative but less so on the back of less negative used car inflation."
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:21 am to Bard
If they exclude food, housing, energy, and taxes it could be a low number.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:26 am to molsusports
quote:
If they exclude food, housing, energy, and taxes it could be a low number.
I can paint a really pretty turd also.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:37 am to Bard
"Experts" really need to learn the difference between "expected" and "desired."
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:24 am to Bard
Baw Powell been saying higher for longer for like over a year now, who's shocked by this
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:27 am to Bard
Doubt it, it's all about the comps. I'm guessing it comes in below estimates.
And now that a thread like this has appeared on MT, maybe it's time to put money on that bet.
And now that a thread like this has appeared on MT, maybe it's time to put money on that bet.
This post was edited on 5/14/24 at 9:32 am
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:40 am to Bard
If it's higher than expected this many months in a row then the people doing the expecting need to tighten up.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:42 am to Bard
quote:Isn't the number rolling off a pretty big one? So at the very least, isn't it likely to seem artificially as if it went down?
US CPI comes in "hotter than expected"
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:43 am to OysterPoBoy
So the #s were revised last months numbers down by 3 10ths
all of this is Fugazi
No wonder the MBS didnt explode off this news
all of this is Fugazi No wonder the MBS didnt explode off this news
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:47 am to molsusports
quote:
If they exclude food, housing, energy, and taxes it could be a low number.
And coffee
Posted on 5/14/24 at 10:22 am to molsusports
Didn’t they remove coffee ?
Posted on 5/14/24 at 10:30 am to Teauxler
They removed some sizes of coffee packaging I believe.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 11:30 am to Teauxler
They removed a specific category of size can of coffee, that isn't widely available anymore. It's a big nothing burger, that the echo chambers of idiots have gotten ahold of. It's like being pissed that 8-track tapes and polaroid cameras are being taken out of the calculation.
CPI requires constant adjustment because it bases everything on a set basket of goods. There's no way to use the same basket from the 70s as now. Whereas PCE captures expenses in categories. PCE is far superior and that's why you hear, the fed cares about it more. CPI is flawed regardless imo, even for it to operate correctly, it still needs constant tweaks and recalculations like this.
CPI requires constant adjustment because it bases everything on a set basket of goods. There's no way to use the same basket from the 70s as now. Whereas PCE captures expenses in categories. PCE is far superior and that's why you hear, the fed cares about it more. CPI is flawed regardless imo, even for it to operate correctly, it still needs constant tweaks and recalculations like this.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 12:10 pm to Bard
Posted on 5/14/24 at 3:48 pm to Art Blakey
Well it wasnt hot after they revised last months
And a big revision it was
And a big revision it was
Posted on 5/14/24 at 4:21 pm to SDVTiger
Can you link the revisions?
Posted on 5/14/24 at 5:17 pm to Pendulum
quote:
CPI requires constant adjustment because it bases everything on a set basket of goods
Agreed
But it should be a representation of what the monthly household expenses are on average. To be interpreted it should include the biggest and most costly things that we have to pay for every month.
That accounting seems lacking (taxes for example).
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