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re: TSLA at $161, anybody biting?
Posted on 12/20/22 at 2:18 pm to Billy Blanks
Posted on 12/20/22 at 2:18 pm to Billy Blanks
Perfect storm…. Recession looming that will harm most auto makers, deep state out to punish Elon for Twitter/FBI revelations. It went way too high and will go way too low before equilibrium hits. I don’t think $50 is out of the question in a capitulation sell off scenario.
2
Posted on 12/20/22 at 3:12 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
deep state out to punish Elon for Twitter/FBI revelations
we also didn't land on the moon
Posted on 12/20/22 at 3:35 pm to oneg8rh8r
137.80
quote price arrow down-12.07 (-8.05%
quote price arrow down-12.07 (-8.05%
Posted on 12/20/22 at 4:12 pm to Texas Tea 123
Comparing TSLA to other car companies has always been pointless. The stock is dropping due to recession fears (luxury cars) and the uncertainty around if Elon has to sell more shares to fund the twitter mistake. Until that's resolved, I am holding off purchasing any more shares.
Posted on 12/20/22 at 4:15 pm to GeneralLee
quote:But we're not seeing evidence of anything similar at the secular level (other automakers) or or the macro level (particularly growth and stocks). What is most dramatic is that over the last few months while Tesla is pushing a drop of nearly 60%, ARKK, which not only has Tesla as a major holding, but is full of stocks that are arguably far more over-valued than Tesla and just plain worse companies, is down less than 25%.
Perfect storm…. Recession looming that will harm most auto makers,
Now maybe it has nothing to do with Elon's involvement with twitter, but it's hard to dismiss that there is not something specific to Tesla happening over that time. And it's hard to deny that over the years that Elon himself has been a major factor in Tesla's valuation.
And I don't think these last few months has done anything to price in his impact to the upside, and likely has done a lot to price in his impact to downside, whether that's because he's been distracted by Twitter (on top of all of his other companies, plus shifting resources from Tesla and other companies) or because he's harmed his image as some master innovator and leader.
This post was edited on 12/20/22 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 12/20/22 at 4:38 pm to buckeye_vol
In the absence of Donald Trump, Elon has become public enemy #1.
If I had to take a guess, the majority of people that owned Tesla's prior to 2022 were probably left leaning people.
All of a sudden, he threatens their way of life in the opening of a lot of Twitter files. This is simply payback, a cancelling attempt if you will.
A tightening economy, and a large portion of his energy being directed at Twitter, not to mention selling a large portion of TSLA stock himself, and I think those people that owed his cars and held his stock decided to pull chocks.
Supply and demand issues irt stock availability and people reassessing the P/E probably puts this south of $100, and quickly.
If I had to take a guess, the majority of people that owned Tesla's prior to 2022 were probably left leaning people.
All of a sudden, he threatens their way of life in the opening of a lot of Twitter files. This is simply payback, a cancelling attempt if you will.
A tightening economy, and a large portion of his energy being directed at Twitter, not to mention selling a large portion of TSLA stock himself, and I think those people that owed his cars and held his stock decided to pull chocks.
Supply and demand issues irt stock availability and people reassessing the P/E probably puts this south of $100, and quickly.
Posted on 12/20/22 at 4:46 pm to oneg8rh8r
quote:Well this would make sense if Trump hadn't been out of office for nearly 2 years, and Elon has only become public enemy #1 since he took over Twitter a few months ago and made himself the daily discussion.
In the absence of Donald Trump, Elon has become public enemy #1.
quote:This is nonsense, the Twitter files is a big nothingburger in relation to investing, especially since when it comes to money and having skin in the game, cancellation suddenly does really matter. It's performative BS, and one of the reasons why it's clearly performative, is becuase it's doesn't matter when it comes to things that due matter.
All of a sudden, he threatens their way of life in the opening of a lot of Twitter files. This is simply payback, a cancelling attempt if you will.
quote:Now these I agree with.
A tightening economy, and a large portion of his energy being directed at Twitter, not to mention selling a large portion of TSLA stock himself, and I think those people that owed his cars and held his stock decided to pull chocks.
Supply and demand issues irt stock availability and people reassessing the P/E probably puts this south of $100, and quickly.
Posted on 12/20/22 at 6:46 pm to molsusports
quote:
I do think Tesla has better control over their supply chain issues, better margins, and more efficient manufacturing than their competitors. That's valuable but I don't know what precise value is reasonable given the flux of the industry
That just means they have to sell less cars than other automakers to achieve a the same PE. Doesn’t mean they should have a higher multiple.
People sre obsessed with the idea of this being a tech play. I mean, they have a bunch of cash burn projects but nothing substantial. FSD ain’t there yet and also have the possibility to bankrupt the entire company due to liability. Especially with musk falling out of favor politically. He really fricked himself with the twitter deal. I honestly believe it was a troll he took too far and then found out his offer was binding.
Not everything is a tech play. See, caravana. People justified that ridiculousness because “it is a tech play”
End rant.
Will be at $50 in less than 6 months.
Posted on 12/20/22 at 7:24 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
That just means they have to sell less cars than other automakers to achieve a the same PE. Doesn’t mean they should have a higher multiple
Their sales growth is the argument for that. They've gone up massively since 2019 LINK
quote:
Not everything is a tech play.
Will be at $50 in less than 6 months.
But I strongly agree with the first statement and could easily see the second statement being true if the larger market is taking a beating
Posted on 12/20/22 at 7:59 pm to molsusports
We’ll see in the coming quarters, but the wait time for delivery is down something like 80%. Where is was formally 6 months or more and now just a few weeks. Pretty telling.
Posted on 12/20/22 at 8:35 pm to TigerDeBaiter
The slowdown will obviously hit Tesla like everyone else. A decrease general prosperity will hit poorly run companies harder though. I don't like the chances of the traditional American car companies at all right now.
New production facilities in Germany and China are great so long as those countries aren't shut down by energy shortage or government respectively.
The promise of a 20 or 25k MSRP Tesla is what really changes things IMO. If they build a new gigafactory which cranks out affordable electric cars for the consumers who used to buy cheap and reliable Japanese cars (and maybe pickups and semis)? Then it jumps from the luxury or sportscar markets to a real car company for the masses and working classes.
The speed at which they built new gigafactories (which can each produce over 50k vehicles a month) raises the possibility of them continuing to scale as they try to make good on the supposed goal of producing cars for everyone
New production facilities in Germany and China are great so long as those countries aren't shut down by energy shortage or government respectively.
The promise of a 20 or 25k MSRP Tesla is what really changes things IMO. If they build a new gigafactory which cranks out affordable electric cars for the consumers who used to buy cheap and reliable Japanese cars (and maybe pickups and semis)? Then it jumps from the luxury or sportscar markets to a real car company for the masses and working classes.
The speed at which they built new gigafactories (which can each produce over 50k vehicles a month) raises the possibility of them continuing to scale as they try to make good on the supposed goal of producing cars for everyone
Posted on 12/21/22 at 9:40 am to molsusports
This is true. Getting a Tesla at the 20-25k price point would keep them ahead of the competition.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 9:08 pm to Highthoughts
It certainly would. And if they want/need to cut margins to get more market share I guess they could.
There’s a couple of other problems though. The lineup is looking dated and based on their opex figures being flat, it seems there’s nothing new in the works. And dated is one thing but also being called a “maga hat on wheels” is another. The core EV customer leans left and has really had their feelings hurt by musk. They’re an emotional bunch.
There’s a couple of other problems though. The lineup is looking dated and based on their opex figures being flat, it seems there’s nothing new in the works. And dated is one thing but also being called a “maga hat on wheels” is another. The core EV customer leans left and has really had their feelings hurt by musk. They’re an emotional bunch.
Posted on 12/21/22 at 10:01 pm to molsusports
quote:
The promise of a 20 or 25k MSRP Tesla is what really changes things IMO.
I really have no pooch in the fight, but do you believe that Musk/Tesla will be able to deliver on that? I have no idea, but I’ve learned to be skeptical of many things that he predicts.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 7:12 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:
really have no pooch in the fight, but do you believe that Musk/Tesla will be able to deliver on that?
I dunno. I don't own a Tesla and don't own their stock.
That's just what they claim to be headed for and a goal I think would transform their value.
quote:
I’ve learned to be skeptical of many things that he predicts.
That's a healthy attitude. Although I didn't expect Tesla to get off the ground and didn't expect SpaceX to produce reusable technology. We're not just dealing with a company that produces vaporware
Posted on 12/22/22 at 7:36 am to molsusports
quote:
That's just what they claim to be headed for and a goal I think would transform their value
I often trade options around TSLA, but I’ve never been long the equity.
Though I get what you’re saying, I think it would depend on what the margins would be on cars sold in that price range. But yeah, I’d say that would massively pick up volumes/demand. I just don’t know what it would do to the overall profit picture if it ever came to be.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 9:43 am to Jag_Warrior
Broke $130 now yikes
Posted on 12/22/22 at 9:57 am to GeneralLee
So much downside left to go. Probably 50% more
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:16 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
oneg8rh8r
If you liked it at $161, you're gonna LOVE it at $101.
Posted on 12/22/22 at 10:16 am to molsusports
quote:
I find the self driven cars creepy and potentially concerning. Especially if they can be remotely controlled or shut down. Given those potential abuses I just don't want one.
You won’t need to own one. We’ll soon be entering a world where a car is a service.
When you need to summon a car to go somewhere you use it like Uber or Lyft, but no driver cost and no need for tipping. This isn’t science fiction. Waymo already provides this service in San Francisco and Phoenix.
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