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re: This one hurt
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:36 pm to SlidellCajun
Posted on 9/13/22 at 9:36 pm to SlidellCajun
Not trying to be political but as long as the federal government continues to spend like drunken sailors the Fed is going to have a tough time getting inflation down. 2 trillion last year, 600 billion this year plus student loan give away if it happens.
1
Posted on 9/13/22 at 10:19 pm to 1609tiger
quote:
Not trying to be political but as long as the federal government continues to spend like drunken sailors the Fed is going to have a tough time getting inflation down. 2 trillion last year, 600 billion this year plus student loan give away if it happens.
90% of the market forces right now are downstream from political decisions and have been back to the Trump administration.
QE caused the run up we’ve seen, the inflation we are experiencing and the end of QE and inflation control measures will suck the liquidity out of the stock and real estate markets to whatever extent the politicians running the fed allow it to.
It’s like a boat race being held in a river with a current. Some boats will still go faster than others, but when they are going downstream they will all be faster than they would otherwise.
Unfortunately now they will be slower than they would otherwise as they have to move against the current.
No answers as to where to park money right now with inflation at whatever number you want to claim (I say it’s higher than what the published data is, but whatever), but I don’t like trying to bet against the current unless it’s on a boat that the government has chosen as a winner (electric cars, battery companies, etc).
Posted on 9/13/22 at 10:23 pm to SlidellCajun
Cash will always come.
The S&P won’t sit below 4,000 forever. If you’re in good names. Relax, invest more on good pullbacks.
The S&P won’t sit below 4,000 forever. If you’re in good names. Relax, invest more on good pullbacks.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 4:32 am to SlidellCajun
Today hurt for sure. But the worrisome part is the clear slowdown in business. I think my company and our competitors will be having layoffs within the next 6 months.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 4:54 am to Shankopotomus
quote:
Never ever trust Hussss
Hmmmmm…..
If THIS makes you feel better about your lack of navigational skills through these zany markets then, by all means, carry on……
But if my memory serves me correctly, I have tried to warn of Options Expiration weeks over and over and over again. Especially this one here in September.
Again, for the record, every March, June, September and December Op Ex (options expire 3rd Friday of the month(s)) are quite wild, woolly and profitable if you know what you are doing. Think OPPOSITE of what HAS been WORKING.
GOOD LUCK
Posted on 9/14/22 at 6:23 am to SlidellCajun
Ditto...
Except I exited everything because all of my positions were recent. All the house money I had over this past couple of weeks got wiped out over night and I only saw it getting worse these next couple of months.
I never intended to be a short seller and picked a portfolio of stocks that I thought were stable household names for the long term, but damn. I am still amazed at how bullish I was just 2 days ago compared to now. The bounce we had this past month had me believing the media was lying and just didn't want the retail investors to make money.... Now I believe they were actually understating the severity of what is to come and god speed to all those who choose to stay and fight. Good luck bulls, I hope to see you all again one day but for now, I am outta here... Peace!
Except I exited everything because all of my positions were recent. All the house money I had over this past couple of weeks got wiped out over night and I only saw it getting worse these next couple of months.
I never intended to be a short seller and picked a portfolio of stocks that I thought were stable household names for the long term, but damn. I am still amazed at how bullish I was just 2 days ago compared to now. The bounce we had this past month had me believing the media was lying and just didn't want the retail investors to make money.... Now I believe they were actually understating the severity of what is to come and god speed to all those who choose to stay and fight. Good luck bulls, I hope to see you all again one day but for now, I am outta here... Peace!
Posted on 9/14/22 at 6:30 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
This one hurt
Posted on 9/14/22 at 6:42 am to SlidellCajun
If the workers go on strike with the railroads then this could get really ugly with supply chain.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 7:50 am to SlidellCajun
A very ugly day
And I don’t see an end
And I don’t see an end
Posted on 9/14/22 at 8:51 am to SlidellCajun
Right there with you. Not a hardcore investor at all, so my WTF moment was realizing yesterday that my newish 401K is down way more YTD than the company and I have paid in YTD. It felt for a moment like that scene from South Park: ".....and it's gone."
Posted on 9/14/22 at 10:18 am to Turf Taint
quote:
I estimate ~20% of net worth today came from DCA through 2008 financial crisis.
It still blows my mind how people don't remember this. If you kept putting in back then, buying everything cheap, you made an absolute fortune. It was not even quite 15 years ago, I mean, it just happened in 08, and people still freak out on bad market days. It's not like we have to go back 30 years from the last recession and people don't know what to expect.
Posted on 9/14/22 at 10:21 am to tide06
quote:
90% of the market forces right now are downstream from political decisions and have been back to the Trump administration.
Can you elaborate?
Posted on 9/14/22 at 10:49 am to SlidellCajun
It’s only gonna get worse brah
The next thing they’re coming after is cash with hyperinflation though
The only way to make it in life now is to get on food stamps
The next thing they’re coming after is cash with hyperinflation though
The only way to make it in life now is to get on food stamps
Posted on 9/14/22 at 11:02 am to FCP
quote:I was there in the late 90s. Just keeping doing what you're doing, and you'll come out fine
Right there with you. Not a hardcore investor at all, so my WTF moment was realizing yesterday that my newish 401K is down way more YTD than the company and I have paid in YTD. It felt for a moment like that scene from South Park: ".....and it's gone."
Posted on 9/15/22 at 8:12 pm to Asharad
Given the loose money policy the last 10 years, it’s very possible that we compressed 20 years of gains into the last decade and we will not see significant growth the next 10 years. Not saying long term growth won’t happen if you have a 20 year horizon but it may be sub 5% the next few years.
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 9/16/22 at 10:42 am to Drizzt
quote:
Given the loose money policy the last 10 years, it’s very possible that we compressed 20 years of gains into the last decade and we will not see significant growth the next 10 years. Not saying long term growth won’t happen if you have a 20 year horizon but it may be sub 5% the next few years.
It’s plausible, but starting down 15-20% gives you a little more juice.
For example, from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2021, VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market) annualized returns were 7.83%. Through 8/31/2022 they’re now 6.7%. In other words, this year has shaved 1.13% off the annualized returns of the last 22 or so years.
If we were going to see annualized growth over the next decade of 5% from 12/31/21, that’s now going to mean 7% growth from these levels.
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