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re: SPCX IPO
Posted on 10/29/26 at 1:28 pm to UltimaParadox
Posted on 10/29/26 at 1:28 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
As everyone finds out quickly with the mega large cap companies.. Execution can be perfect, like Nvidia, but the stock won't move and keep the same valuation as it has today.
Mostly because there is not enough free capital to move it, and that is so large that the concentration risk because insurmountable.
So yes there is clearly a timeline where space x executes perfectly and the stock does nowhere near 10x
It's not as implausible as you argue.
Apple's market cap ten years ago was $550B and is now $5T
Microsoft - $460B and now about $4T
NVIDIA - $50B and now about $5T
It's not unheard of for a substantial tech company to grow at a rate that sees its market cap grow about 10x over a ten year period.
Moreover, SpaceX (particularly tied up with Tesla) would be a market leader in AI, compute, robotics, communications and energy - business segments with extraordinary growth potential (globally) over the next ten years as the economy is transformed by AI and robotics. Not the worst situation imaginable to grow a company 10x.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 1:53 pm to UltimaParadox
Lol, NVDA isn't sitting still just because it has gone sideways for the last year. It's up over 700% the last 5 years. The reason it isn't going up is because of all the AI bubble fears and investors wanting to see more ROI with end users. It has nothing to do with not enough money to move it. It went from a 1 trillion dollar company to a 5 trillion dollar company is a little over 2 years.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 3:24 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
The valuation being quoted was specifically 10 years from now.
Ah, missed that.
Within 10 years, there is a great chance SpaceX is transporting Helium 3 back from the moon at scale. If nuclear fusion becomes a thing, than that is a huge revenue stream. Bunch of what-ifs though.
Posted on 10/29/26 at 10:48 pm to David_DJS
Who in the hell would downvote you? Straight facts buddy!!!
Posted on 10/30/26 at 7:45 am to Tampa Ray
Thanks for the heads up!
Posted on 10/30/26 at 7:59 am to Tampa Ray
I'm getting ready to buy some more!
Posted on 10/30/26 at 8:15 am to Beessnax
quote:
I'm getting ready to buy some more!
Posted on 10/30/26 at 8:50 am to David_DJS
Difference is that space X is already worth 2T.
Apple maybe your closest comparison, but their valuation as a percentage of gdp was much lower back in 2015 than space X today.
Space X valuations already include a lot of the lofty goals being outlined in this thread which they have not even delivered yet. Apple was transitioning from a domestic only behemoth to a global behemoth, generating insane profits.
Posts expecting them to be mining helium 3 within the decade explain why the valuation currently sits where it does today.
High risk, once again is very unlikely.
Apple maybe your closest comparison, but their valuation as a percentage of gdp was much lower back in 2015 than space X today.
Space X valuations already include a lot of the lofty goals being outlined in this thread which they have not even delivered yet. Apple was transitioning from a domestic only behemoth to a global behemoth, generating insane profits.
Posts expecting them to be mining helium 3 within the decade explain why the valuation currently sits where it does today.
High risk, once again is very unlikely.
This post was edited on 10/30/26 at 8:53 am
Posted on 10/30/26 at 9:19 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Posts expecting them to be mining helium 3 within the decade explain why the valuation currently sits where it does today.
To clarify, they will be the transport piece, SpaceX does not have a real mining operation. It is also dependent on AI solving the sustained fusion reaction problem.
If those pieces, with transport of H3 possibly being the simplest part, come to realization, fusion would replace all known electric power generation over the remaining decades of this century. Lot of damn money there, but will crater many companies.
quote:
Apple was transitioning from a domestic only behemoth to a global behemoth, generating insane profits.
SpaceX is already global, their next jump is off planet. They will do it and that is why you will see that valuation go up.
Posted on 10/30/26 at 12:28 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Difference is that space X is already worth 2T.
There are a shite ton of differences between Apple/market in 2015 and SpaceX now. I wouldn’t draw conclusions from one in isolation.
quote:
Apple maybe your closest comparison, but their valuation as a percentage of gdp was much lower back in 2015 than space X today.
How does this matter?
quote:
Apple was transitioning from a domestic only behemoth to a global behemoth, generating insane profits.
I’m not sure what you’re arguing here but to describe Apple as a domestic-only behemoth anytime after it became a behemoth is crazy.
quote:
Posts expecting them to be mining helium 3 within the decade explain why the valuation currently sits where it does today.
Insights like this are why I keep coming back to this board. Here I was thinking SpaceX’s valuation today was about its fast-growing Starlink business, its potential entry into the cell market, its AI computing infrastructure ambitions, the prospects of marrying AI leadership with robotics leadership (Tesla) as the global economy is transformed by AI and robotics.
But now I understand it’s really about mining helium-3 on the Moon someday.
Posted on 10/30/26 at 12:33 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Difference is that space X is already worth 2T.
I don't know why people can't get this through their heads.
Dude yesterday was saying SPCX is going to 10x over the next 10 years.
So it's going to have a $20 Trillion Market Cap
Meanwhile back in the real world it's down another 5% today
This post was edited on 10/30/26 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 10/30/26 at 12:44 pm to Tampa Ray
quote:
They think they're buying Apple & Microsoft in 1988 for $1.
Nobody thinks this.
A solid argument can be made that SpaceX is over-valued. Why resort to inane BS?
This post was edited on 10/30/26 at 12:45 pm
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