re: Software Stocks Plunge

Well, if we’ve seen the bottom, I like where I’m at. I own ~100 each of MSFT, CRM, and ADBE. Will gladly buy more if we pull back again

I’m not selling, they’re sitting on a rock solid floor with incredible upside.

It’s a Heads, you win, Tails, you don’t lose much scenario imo.

I’m on the fence about NOW, mainly because I don’t get it. I hear good things about them, but I don’t really understand enterprise workflows that well, so for that reason, I’m out.
Also, I don’t know if I can trust Ashley Shaeffer to guide that company going forward.

I may be way off, but I feel much better about how CRM, ADBE, and MSFT are positioned

I’m personally going to ride this out some more. I’m in the green on CRM but holding a bag on NOW, $128 avg.

To me there’s a difference between CRM, MSFT and a company like ADBE. CRM and MSFT are framework software that make everything work in common business tasks.

ADBE seems more susceptible to AI just based on what they do….but they are a cash flow machine.

I lied about holding CRM…. Decided to sell yesterday after another short lived software pump. Sold and bought NBIS, great decision so far. Still have big NOW bag…

Eventually the rebound will be sustained. As soon as people realize the big boys aren’t going bankrupt, the narrative will flip and they’ll fly. In the meantime, they’re buying back loads of cheap shares and I’m loading up as they fall.

Software is back!

I bought five FIVN $30 calls for January.
FIVN has a lot of room to run.

ST added to his position just yesterday.

Dang, I should have bought more of NOW.

I wonder if it too late to add more. It was down big this year.

quote:

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My old friend is a programmer out of MIT and he is very impressed with the AI tools ability to produce excellent code quickly.

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Just my two cents as a someone who’s been encouraged to use AI everywhere in their daily work since 2024.

AI, regardless of platform, is like a book smart programmer or work horse. It lacks creativity and the ability to think outside the box.

Has AI helped me learn python and powershell in record time coupled with API usage? Yes it has.

Did it get to the end product on its own or get past certain walls it ran into with its suggestions? No, that’s where it needed me to guide it.

Personally, I do not think that AI will ever be creative enough to over take what it does along side a human. In its simplest form, it copies what it sees. Master-Apprentice mentality. I don’t think you can teach an algorithm to be creative.

Creativity comes from prolonged struggle and hard lessons.

Algorithms don’t experience that, they loop.

I guess the frontal cortex means something after all.

Now let’s talk securities.

MSFT. They’re corner at the moment. I got by Defender years back and I did it because I assumed the error the programmer would make. It worked. MSFT security focuses on Kerberos interaction. That’s about it.

MSFT is having to offer profit minimal deals on its privilege management product that it’s hinted at rolling out for years now.

If that product could compete with the market, they wouldn’t need to discount it at all.

MSFT is going to attempt to charge customers to integrate other third party apps for Azure AD and Entra OAuth integrations.

That’s going to get them sued if they press it. As a platform, they are going to try to hold domain access and AD identities hostage. Those attributes are tied to company names therefore they’re going to try to charge for the use of a copyright and intellectual property game. They’ll lose that fight.

Hard pass on MSFT.

SNOW, while good software does not have a long road ahead of it. It’s ticketing software for help desk. It has issues with keeping up and passing data. It has a shelf life. I guess we’ll see how they grow from their current state.