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Social Security at Retirement
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:28 pm
Taking one of those CPE/CLE classes and the speaker is pushing the benefits of why you should wait, if you can, until 70 to start collecting your SS benefits. He is going on and on about how much you are leaving on the table if you don't wait.
My question is, if you were to retire early (lets assume 62 for simplicity) what would the benefit be to your entire portfolio when making the decision to start SS at 62, 67, or 70? If you are not collecting SS; wouldn't you be putting more of a burden on your investment accounts (even if it's only an extra $40-50k a year) over those 5-7 years. Thereby, reducing your portfolio faster due to the loss in compounding interest.
If your retirement account balance is $3M, how would you calculate the loss compounding interest?
My question is, if you were to retire early (lets assume 62 for simplicity) what would the benefit be to your entire portfolio when making the decision to start SS at 62, 67, or 70? If you are not collecting SS; wouldn't you be putting more of a burden on your investment accounts (even if it's only an extra $40-50k a year) over those 5-7 years. Thereby, reducing your portfolio faster due to the loss in compounding interest.
If your retirement account balance is $3M, how would you calculate the loss compounding interest?
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:36 pm to Weekend Warrior79
I always look at it as a guaranteed 7% between age 62-67, and then a guaranteed 8% between 67-70. This really only matters if you get to 62 before the whole house of cards comes down, but if your health is good and you have enough investments to survive the higher withdrawal rate for 5-8 years, then delay.
Most people don't have the luxury of waiting that long and if they smoke/have heart problems/history of cancer/etc. then definitely don't wait. I'll hang up and listen.
Most people don't have the luxury of waiting that long and if they smoke/have heart problems/history of cancer/etc. then definitely don't wait. I'll hang up and listen.
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:38 pm to Weekend Warrior79
Social Security grows at about 8% per year to age 70. That amount is essentially zero risk, and is guaranteed by the federal government. No one will tell you there is a way to get 8% with zero risk any other way.
The idea would be you are able to take significantly less from your assets later on once SS is turned on.
As far as the break even on SS...the math says that if you were to live 12 years past the date you turned on SS, you would have been better off waiting. So there needs to be some consideration as to health and family history.
The idea would be you are able to take significantly less from your assets later on once SS is turned on.
As far as the break even on SS...the math says that if you were to live 12 years past the date you turned on SS, you would have been better off waiting. So there needs to be some consideration as to health and family history.
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:40 pm to juice4lsu
Damn the government figured out how to get a guaranteed 8% return?! Where do I get that?!
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:41 pm to Weekend Warrior79
I am in my 30’s and saving sufficiently for retirement. However, I fully intend on retiring and taking SS benefits 62. Once you get up to those ages you really don’t know how many years you have left.
I am fully aware the math probably does not support that decision.
ETA: and yes I am also aware of the possibility SS is not even around when I reach that age. Even more reason to take the benefits at 62
I am fully aware the math probably does not support that decision.
ETA: and yes I am also aware of the possibility SS is not even around when I reach that age. Even more reason to take the benefits at 62
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:43 pm to UpstairsComputer
It depends upon a number of factors. First and foremost is your health when you turn 62 and every year thereafter. Second, when are you planning to stop working. And, third, building off the second factor, what is your tax situation, i.e., what other taxable funds are you taking in.
I've gone to the SS website and figured out what I will get at 62 if I stopped working now (and every year between 51-62) and if I worked until I was 62. In my case, I would have to live to 78-82 in order to make up the difference between starting SS at 62 versus starting SS when I turned 67. That, of course, assumes that I stop working at 62. And, that doesn't include interest that I may earn on that money (I assumed I'll be spending it, though).
Given my family health history, I doubt I'll live to 78. It's just a fact. Therefore, depending on my working situation, I'll most likely start taking it out at 62.
I've gone to the SS website and figured out what I will get at 62 if I stopped working now (and every year between 51-62) and if I worked until I was 62. In my case, I would have to live to 78-82 in order to make up the difference between starting SS at 62 versus starting SS when I turned 67. That, of course, assumes that I stop working at 62. And, that doesn't include interest that I may earn on that money (I assumed I'll be spending it, though).
Given my family health history, I doubt I'll live to 78. It's just a fact. Therefore, depending on my working situation, I'll most likely start taking it out at 62.
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:44 pm to Weekend Warrior79
He actually just said if you have a larger portfolio, you may be better off taking the SS earlier and allowing the portfolio to continue to grow. He did not define larger (wouldn't expect him to).
My question came about because it always seems it's a linear decision without considering other sources.
My question came about because it always seems it's a linear decision without considering other sources.
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:50 pm to HarveyBanger
quote:
I am in my 30’s and saving sufficiently for retirement. However, I fully intend on retiring and taking SS benefits 62
40s here and have the same plan. Obviously, as I get closer I will further evaluate it, but my plan to to start collecting at 62 or when I stop working (whichever happens later).
A quick and dirty simplified table, if my balance is $3M (rough goal) and I take out $150k a year; I could be losing over $400k over the life of my investment portfolios by delaying SS benefits and needing to use more of my portfolio. Obviously does not take into consideration of RMDs, working a few years later, inflation....
Posted on 10/19/21 at 12:56 pm to Weekend Warrior79
Not sure how much this adds to the conversation but here is that break-even chart someone mentioned...
Posted on 10/19/21 at 1:01 pm to UpstairsComputer
That chart is pretty much EXACTLY what my scenarios bared out.
And, if you are able to save or "put away" that money and earn interest on it, the break even point will go well into the 80s.
And, if you are able to save or "put away" that money and earn interest on it, the break even point will go well into the 80s.
Posted on 10/19/21 at 1:02 pm to jimbeam
quote:
guaranteed 8% return?
No such thing and you know it. US Government has been the best bet for a couple hundred years but that will end . . . At some point. May not be in ten years, but it will happen at some point.
Posted on 10/19/21 at 1:04 pm to Weekend Warrior79
Bro the only SS in 5 years will be Biden’s SS that hunts down white males
As a Native American Jew I’ll send one up to great spirit/yahweh for you white guys
As a Native American Jew I’ll send one up to great spirit/yahweh for you white guys
Posted on 10/19/21 at 1:27 pm to UpstairsComputer
That chart also assumes that SS will be able to pay out 100% of the benefits that it owes. We are less than 12 years away from the fund only being able to pay 76% of benefits.
Posted on 10/19/21 at 2:11 pm to TigerintheNO
Preaching to the choir, but truth is US gubment print money just like they have my entire adult life to pay that benefit. It'll be paid, question is, what will it be worth?
Posted on 10/19/21 at 3:21 pm to UpstairsComputer
That break even chart is what on lean on…
I also know as i get to the other side of the break even number I will be less active and spend more time on hobbies around the house…(less money required to sit around and smoke ribs ,watch tv and grow vegetables)
So use the ss a little early to subsidize retirement income and go see the world and have fun…
Fwiw…I am 63 and will probably pull ss at 65 with Medicare… I retired at 59 and live off investment and subsidize the ss with cash from a cash fund I set up to cover 8 years of ss….
Gotta weigh quality of life versus the ss yearly gain , life expectancy for your family history and early death
I also know as i get to the other side of the break even number I will be less active and spend more time on hobbies around the house…(less money required to sit around and smoke ribs ,watch tv and grow vegetables)
So use the ss a little early to subsidize retirement income and go see the world and have fun…
Fwiw…I am 63 and will probably pull ss at 65 with Medicare… I retired at 59 and live off investment and subsidize the ss with cash from a cash fund I set up to cover 8 years of ss….
Gotta weigh quality of life versus the ss yearly gain , life expectancy for your family history and early death
Posted on 10/19/21 at 3:36 pm to jimbeam
quote:
Damn the government figured out how to get a guaranteed 8% return?! Where do I get that?!
You first have to be ok with like a 2% return the first 40 years
Posted on 10/19/21 at 4:00 pm to Thecoz
i'm 55 this year.
i will start SS at 62 no matter what.
based on my family history it's unlikely i live thru my 70's
i will start SS at 62 no matter what.
based on my family history it's unlikely i live thru my 70's
Posted on 10/19/21 at 4:08 pm to Weekend Warrior79
No way in hell I don't take it as soon as I can. Life is uncertain. The breakeven chart wasn't even needed, but it certainly helps solidify that position for me.
Posted on 10/19/21 at 4:12 pm to thunderbird1100
I always hear this advice that "it's a guaranteed 8% return you cant get that anywhere else." It's not actually an 8% return though. You may get an 8% increase in benefit but you lose the principle for each year you delay taking the benefit. So you are in effect paying for that increased benefit. Am I missing something here? For a true 8% return I'd expect the principle to be intact.
Posted on 10/19/21 at 8:07 pm to juice4lsu
The problem is most break even calculators assume you spend every dollar if you withdraw early. The fact is, like the OP says, the opportunity cost has to be calculated.
As a result, a properly invested account pushes the break even past the median age of death for most folks, IMo.
Eta- and any good advisor will also weigh the personal income tax pros and cons as well. SS income with a little dab of qualified withdrawals goes much further than qualified withdrawals only.
On the flip side, if you have large non qualified balances and are trying to play the Obamacare game for health insurance before 65, waiting may make sense. Like many financial decisions, it’s not black and white.
As a result, a properly invested account pushes the break even past the median age of death for most folks, IMo.
Eta- and any good advisor will also weigh the personal income tax pros and cons as well. SS income with a little dab of qualified withdrawals goes much further than qualified withdrawals only.
On the flip side, if you have large non qualified balances and are trying to play the Obamacare game for health insurance before 65, waiting may make sense. Like many financial decisions, it’s not black and white.
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 8:14 pm
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