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Random thoughts about Amazon
Posted on 5/17/23 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 5/17/23 at 6:59 pm
Not necessarily about the value of the stock price, but obviously if my thoughts have any validity, it would eventually be reflected there.
As a hobby, I should do more research, but I find this company fascinating.
Interesting points:
- how they were able to develop their own delivery service that rivals the two giants that took decades to develop. (I was in this biz for a decade, and experienced the difficulty of training, etc)
- and somehow they arguably have the most competitive pricing of anyone now or previously
- spent massive amounts to build their infrastructure relatively at the speed of light (it seems to me)
-how in the world are they profitable??
-if they are, will they remain?
-I noticed they recently changed their free return policy (shipping) to about $7.00 unless you bring your item to Kohls. This didn't surprise me at all; returning any item was too painless.
Anyone else find any of this interesting?
ETA: I'm open to listening or reading some broad opinions about this company if you have any suggestions.
As a hobby, I should do more research, but I find this company fascinating.
Interesting points:
- how they were able to develop their own delivery service that rivals the two giants that took decades to develop. (I was in this biz for a decade, and experienced the difficulty of training, etc)
- and somehow they arguably have the most competitive pricing of anyone now or previously
- spent massive amounts to build their infrastructure relatively at the speed of light (it seems to me)
-how in the world are they profitable??
-if they are, will they remain?
-I noticed they recently changed their free return policy (shipping) to about $7.00 unless you bring your item to Kohls. This didn't surprise me at all; returning any item was too painless.
Anyone else find any of this interesting?

ETA: I'm open to listening or reading some broad opinions about this company if you have any suggestions.
This post was edited on 5/17/23 at 7:01 pm
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:49 pm to Grassy1
quote:
-I noticed they recently changed their free return policy (shipping) to about $7.00 unless you bring your item to Kohls. This didn't surprise me at all; returning any item was too painless.
I drop my items off at Whole foods and it's free returns unless that has changed in the last month.
quote:
-how in the world are they profitable??
I believe they make the majority of their money on the subscriptions. I'd love to know the percentage of customers who buy a ton of stuff online though.
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:55 pm to Grassy1
quote:
how in the world are they profitable
For most of recent history the profit all came from Amazon Web services (AWS) and not from the selling of goods.
AWS is the profit engine, they are losing money otherwise
Posted on 5/17/23 at 10:16 pm to UltimaParadox
Don’t forget about Advertising revenue ($35B) and subscription services ($37B). Amazon is not just an e-commerce company.
Posted on 5/17/23 at 10:18 pm to ShootingsBricks4Life
quote:
I believe they make the majority of their money on the subscriptions.
The overwhelming majority of Amazon’s profit comes from AWS. Almost all other business segments are losing money.
Posted on 5/17/23 at 10:49 pm to skewbs
quote:
The overwhelming majority of Amazon’s profit comes from AWS. Almost all other business segments are losing money.
Totally. I was focusing on just that side of the business.
Once that is ran by robots it'll be fine...I kid...sorta.
This post was edited on 5/17/23 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 5/18/23 at 8:47 am to Grassy1
quote:
-I noticed they recently changed their free return policy (shipping) to about $7.00 unless you bring your item to Kohls. This didn't surprise me at all; returning any item was too painless.
I don't think this has changed across the board. Maybe it's because of my Prime membership, but I still have free returns to any UPS Store, no box or packaging needed. It's about as convenient as you can get. Walk in, hand the item to the clerk, and let them scan a QR code on my phone. Done.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 9:38 am to Grassy1
with retailers closing down, particularly in larger cities (recently due to billions in theft), this is and expanding horizon for Amazon. i am pretty bullish on it when you couple that with their other services, but im an idiot, so take that for what its worth.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 9:40 am to Grassy1
I heard they sell their books for a loss on purpose.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 11:58 am to Grassy1
Amazon treats its customers like God and its sellers like crap.
Sellers are desperate for a better-managed platform.
Sellers are desperate for a better-managed platform.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 5:40 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
I heard they sell their books for a loss on purpose
That's called a loss leader. Sell something at a loss that brings in customers who will then buy other, more expensive shite.
For a long time the strategy was to price according to competitors and undercut where possible. Most of the pricing decisions aren't actually Amazon Retail decisions - at least that used to be the case
Posted on 5/18/23 at 5:43 pm to Grassy1
quote:
how they were able to develop their own delivery service that rivals the two giants that took decades to develop. (I was in this biz for a decade, and experienced the difficulty of training, etc)
So their delivery service is not even close to cheaper than UPS, FedEx, USPS. But it is faster and with better quality. Speed - stays in network so less touches. Quality - if they lose the order or its trending late they have visibility and can immediately send another next day air and you never know. But very expensive and ran by an outfit that prioritizes the AMZL P&L vs the company P&L. They're struggling pretty hard.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 6:43 pm to Grassy1
1). ecommerce - Wal$mart is better. Often items can be found cheaper on Walmart website, plus, you can return items to any walmart service center, and for delivery, they can "door dash" items from local stores, often within hours. Also, GameStop is now in on the game and offers 2hour delivery on many items. They are also no longer just games.
2). Cloud - they lost a lot of their luster when they killed Parlor - a growing conservative alternative to twitter. They killed them in less than a week at the urging of other tech tyrants. This has sent many looking for alternatives (Azure, Google - although part of the dangerous tech tyranny, they haven't killed off major clients, yet)
3). Prime - lots of people dropping this last year because of woke policies.
------
4th Quarter 22 loss of $2.7 billion!
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-reports-net-loss-of-2-7-billion-for-2022/
I think it was first quarterly loss in years. Meanwhile, supposedly going bankrupt GameStop surprised most with a positive 4th quarter.
4th quarter (Christmas) is supposed to be big bucks for retail so the big surprise was Amazon's loss. Article gives several reasons they gave like a failing ev car investment.
2). Cloud - they lost a lot of their luster when they killed Parlor - a growing conservative alternative to twitter. They killed them in less than a week at the urging of other tech tyrants. This has sent many looking for alternatives (Azure, Google - although part of the dangerous tech tyranny, they haven't killed off major clients, yet)
3). Prime - lots of people dropping this last year because of woke policies.
------
4th Quarter 22 loss of $2.7 billion!
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-reports-net-loss-of-2-7-billion-for-2022/
I think it was first quarterly loss in years. Meanwhile, supposedly going bankrupt GameStop surprised most with a positive 4th quarter.
4th quarter (Christmas) is supposed to be big bucks for retail so the big surprise was Amazon's loss. Article gives several reasons they gave like a failing ev car investment.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 6:53 pm to Grassy1
quote:
how they were able to develop their own delivery service that rivals the two giants that took decades to develop. (I was in this biz for a decade, and experienced the difficulty of training, etc)
They didn’t. They copied the model of DHL and Airborne Express.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 6:58 pm to GhostOfFreedom
2.3B of that 2.7B was a Rivian write down, right?
And yeah, peak represents like 1/3 of Amazon's volume or something like it. Q4 they invested 100s of millions in excess capacity in all parts of their trans network (SC, ZL, Air, MM) to protect Speed. Then in the face of consciously running high buffered capacity they dealt with volume coming in light all year and having to feed 3rd party carriers to meet contractual commitments. So all this excess capacity was unused because they essentially had too many mouths to feed.
And yeah, peak represents like 1/3 of Amazon's volume or something like it. Q4 they invested 100s of millions in excess capacity in all parts of their trans network (SC, ZL, Air, MM) to protect Speed. Then in the face of consciously running high buffered capacity they dealt with volume coming in light all year and having to feed 3rd party carriers to meet contractual commitments. So all this excess capacity was unused because they essentially had too many mouths to feed.
Posted on 5/21/23 at 8:49 am to GhostOfFreedom
Wal-Mart ecommerce is better? Nope.
Cloud business is strong.
Prime - price increases and more choices with other companies are main effect on people dropping memberships.
Cloud business is strong.
Prime - price increases and more choices with other companies are main effect on people dropping memberships.
Posted on 5/21/23 at 9:35 am to KWL85
Here's your answer, it's 6 AM on the West coast on Sunday am, I am drinking coffee and eating breakfast and I have already made 2 purchases from Amazon today. Probably not done.
I drive to work during the weekdays and during my trip if the timing is right, I usually pass no less than 3 DOZEN Amazon trucks headed out for deliveries.
I drive to work during the weekdays and during my trip if the timing is right, I usually pass no less than 3 DOZEN Amazon trucks headed out for deliveries.
Posted on 5/21/23 at 12:43 pm to S1C EM
quote:
Maybe it's because of my Prime membership, but I still have free returns to any UPS Store, no box or packaging needed.
Even with Prime, you can be charged for a return via UPS. It depends on the reason you choose for returning; I've seen this myself. Though it also may depend on the item (i.e. weight).
This post was edited on 5/21/23 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 5/21/23 at 1:09 pm to Grassy1
I went to Wal Mart yesterday to buy a simple 20W square for an iPhone charger. This item was of course locked in glass. Spent ten minutes looking for someone to open the case. Finally said f it. Ordered same item for $1 cheaper from Amazon delivered today.
I think Amazon will continue to grow as consumers get frustrated having to find a store employee to unlock a case for what appears to be an increasing amount of inventory.
I think Amazon will continue to grow as consumers get frustrated having to find a store employee to unlock a case for what appears to be an increasing amount of inventory.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 7:54 am to MSTiger33
quote:
I think Amazon will continue to grow as consumers get frustrated having to find a store employee to unlock a case for what appears to be an increasing amount of inventory.
I think WMT will continue to grow as consumers realize they have a pretty efficient ecommerce operation and you can buy their catalog without having to go into the store

I am way more bullish on WMT than I am AMZN at this point.
This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 7:55 am
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