re: Protection against collapse

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That’s a ballsy as frick prediction. Do you really think long dated yields are going down in any substantial way?

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Dude it's been 2 years of high "inflation" you think bond yields are behind the curve STILL?

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I’ve got my doom & gloom hat on this evening and am wondering what I can do to protect some wealth/assets from a possible upcoming depression

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If you truly believe that, I'd be locking in some Treasuries for whatever time period you are concerned with. Treasuries 6 months and longer are currently yielding over 3%.

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Or would it be better to sell covered calls against your assets?

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If one has a truly bearish conviction, buying puts (or put credit spreads) is more of a pure play. Covered calls (or even short call spreads) just give premiums to lessen the losses in the event of a major correction. Of course, a person can do both. The short call premiums can help pay for the long puts. Not a strategy that I use, but one can do that if they’re solidly bullish and want to skew to that side.

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I sleep easily, and know that I will never sell my equities in a panic.

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To sum it up, basically I think fed is fighting a battle they cant win until comps get better because they use CPI and they cant fix labor supply. If commodities stay on a leg up right now, they are going to have to be aggressive; maybe even hit their QT numbers. I think they will be successful and destroy demand components of CPI; and then comps will greatly improve 1Q and they will stop and wait for CPI to come back to fed funds target and they will turn dovish, meanwhile equities are sideways which helps hold longterm yield down and growth is slowed. If you get some type of resolution to Ukraine in the meantime, then CPI will fall faster and they wont have to go as high. The bet is that long term yields will just sit around here and not move meaningfully higher. Once FED shows a crack; long end of yield curve will continue longterm migration downwards.

If Ukraine escalates, or something else geopolitical happens, or some black swan happens; I would think theres a flight to safety which also would lower long term yields. Also something could break while theyre tightening, albeit that seems unlikely now. So it's also a type of hedge against a crazy event.

Long term treasuries just seem like a good trade to me, but we might not be at the bottom just yet, so you have to go out pretty far. Might be a tad early to put it on. I have some 120 calls in late 23 and jan 24. TLT chart looks like a bottom and it's just a very small part of my overall portfolio.

100% and that's exactly what the institutions that use those securities are doing. I just don't think the market could ever get the long end up above this 3-3.5% range there's too much risk and not enough organic growth for that money to be lent elsewhere and it's been like that for years. The reason you buy the long dated maturities is because you think rates have topped and you want the convexity, not for the yield.

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Buy physical silver and be very, very patient.

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Silver isn’t a good hedge against inflation.

It’s a hedge against total collapse when you have to barter it for transportation to another country.

Yes long all three, although I started selling my position yesterday. I would say triple inverses are commonly reset daily. There are some instances where I let it ride but it has to be the right set up. Getting hosed over night is always a possibility. Keep in mind, it's part of an overall strategy of hedging long positions. I'm not only in cash and inverse funds, I do have long positions as well.

seeds, guns, bullets baw