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Started By
Message
re: Oil Stocks/ETFS in 2025
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:00 am to Louie T
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:00 am to Louie T
Thanks! You too.
Interesting part is that I just can't put my finger on how this works, but you seem too.
Interesting part is that I just can't put my finger on how this works, but you seem too.
quote:
but I think it'll be in a better place soon
quote:
with disappointing US prod, OPEC+ unity, and current crude & product stocks.
1
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:01 am to Louie T
I like BOIL. But again. Selling calls on it.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:01 am to HagaDaga
More supply isn't necessarily "healthy." I'm only referencing the underlying commodity & equity prices as I think it's been a little oversold.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:09 am to Louie T
Got it. That helps make more sense. Thanks.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 2:09 pm to HagaDaga
quote:
What makes you think it's undervalued?
Trading at a P/E of about 7. Forward P/E about the same but projecting increasing production while continuing to decrease cost of production. They're very frugal and debt averse. They've grown from just under 60k BOE/day to over 200k BOE/day projected in 2025. They've also added to and streamlined their midstream operations. They have added some debt, but they aren't overleveraged. They are volatile, but I've added shares and made some nice profits swinging shares when they spike. I'm not an Oil and Gas guru, but it's worth a look, especially when it falls back to high 40's-low 50's.
I think oil prices have been falsely suppressed to keep inflation and gas prices down. Damn near every expert is predicting an oil and gas glut in 2025. I think they're full of shite and I don't think the current geopolitical risks are being fully priced in. Warren Buffett is buying oil and accumulating cash. I'm doing the same.
Posted on 12/25/24 at 7:40 am to HagaDaga
quote:
Anyone think Oil related Stocks/ETFs (ie...USO) will start moving upward in January as Trump gets in?
Oil and gas got crushed last time Trump was in office. He was by far the most unfriendly president to the US Oil and Gas industry in my lifetime. He was either outplayed or working with the Saudi’s last time around.
Posted on 12/25/24 at 9:42 am to HagaDaga
LINK A good site for energy news
It also updates spot oil prices every few minutes from markets all over the world.
Take a look at GUSH. It's a leveraged etf for drillers that gives you 2x the price move.
It also updates spot oil prices every few minutes from markets all over the world.
Take a look at GUSH. It's a leveraged etf for drillers that gives you 2x the price move.
Posted on 12/26/24 at 9:21 am to ynlvr
quote:
more is coming and it’s gonna hurt producers
Are U.S. producers going to intentionally drill themselves into a $30 per barrel price environment?
Posted on 12/26/24 at 9:29 am to Motownsix
quote:
Oil and gas got crushed last time Trump was in office. He was by far the most unfriendly president to the US Oil and Gas industry in my lifetime.
His policies caused oil to crash to negative in April 2020?
Posted on 12/26/24 at 3:57 pm to HagaDaga
quote:
Anyone think Oil related Stocks/ETFs (ie...USO) will start moving upward in January as Trump gets in?
The irony has been that oil stocks have often done better under Democrats than Republican administrations because they restrict supply. O&G companies often do a poor job of managing development and other expenses. Profits under Biden also arguably ballooned because the carbon free goals made reinvestment more difficult to choose.
I suspect we've passed peak ESG as people recognize the folly of collapsing an industrial economy like Germany has recently. Assuming that's true and ESG regulations allow for reinvestment? Profits in the short to medium term will take a hit.
Prices should drop for consumers tho. Especially if there's a recession. But that's bearish for profits.
This post was edited on 12/26/24 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 12/26/24 at 4:39 pm to molsusports
Buffett has been buying OXY this year, while selling off most of his other stocks.
Posted on 12/26/24 at 7:03 pm to joe8 7
quote:
Buffett has been buying OXY this year
Well he loaned them a shite ton of money for them to buy Anadarko, and I think preferred stock was a big part of that deal.
He’s on record saying he likes their direct air capture investment and technology, though who knows with that mess.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 7:23 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Oil and gas got crushed last time Trump was in office. He was by far the most unfriendly president to the US Oil and Gas industry in my lifetime.
quote:
His policies caused oil to crash to negative in April 2020?
You clearly didn’t have any money invested in the market during that timeframe. Oil and Gas stocks and U.S. energy companies were getting destroyed long before COVID came around.
Remember all that cheap gas everyone celebrated? U.S. companies can’t compete when oil is at $35 a barrel.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 8:26 am to Motownsix
Not sure how it's going to play out but in '20 when i started buying ET hand over fist, I read an article about how oil companies have supposedly matured and have taken steps to minimize the boom/bust cycle. For that to prove out, one of those steps has to be to adopt some OPEC operating practices.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 8:26 am to BCreed1
quote:
I like BOIL. But again. Selling calls on it.
Just a follow up:
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas
$61.39
+$10.39 (+20.37%)Pre-market
Posted on 12/30/24 at 10:16 am to Motownsix
quote:
You clearly didn’t have any money invested in the market during that timeframe.
I had both money and my livelihood invested in oil & gas stocks and industry during that time. I absolutely know the worries not only investors, but folks in the industry started having around August 2019.
But did Trump ignite the Saudi-Russia spat? Did Trump go to the Saudi’s and ask that they ramp up production to crash oil prices?
Because that’s the only way Donald Trump would have any sort of culpability in the oil & gas industry begin to feel some pain prior to Covid shutdowns crashing everything. Hell, the price per barrel of oil was averaged $48.19 (Jan 2017) the month he took office. It averaged $56.55 in January 2020. Was in mid 60s most 2018 and mid 50 range much of 2019.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 10:19 am to Motownsix
quote:
Remember all that cheap gas everyone celebrated?
I sure do. I remember idiot Trumpists using a picture of a Walmart gas station showing $1.49/gallon as some reflection of how great Trump was when gasoline prices were giraffe arse high during 2022. Many of those folks were too ignorant to realize that was mostly caused by Covid crash, and during that time, unemployment was high too.
Posted on 12/30/24 at 12:40 pm to BCreed1
quote:That was entirely luck unless you're a meteorologist with an earlier forecast than market on the bullish teleconnections.
Just a follow up:
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas
$61.39
+$10.39 (+20.37%)Pre-market
Posted on 12/30/24 at 1:27 pm to BCreed1
quote:quote:Just a follow up:
I like BOIL. But again. Selling calls on it.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas
$61.39
+$10.39 (+20.37%)Pre-market
so your calls are frick?
Posted on 12/30/24 at 4:24 pm to Louie T
quote:
That was entirely luck unless you're a meteorologist with an earlier forecast than market on the bullish teleconnections.
Really? I thought I have traded BOIL for months now. At 43, sold a put at 42....etc.
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