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Started By
Message
re: New Housing Sales Down 16%
Posted on 5/25/22 at 9:24 am to 632627
Posted on 5/25/22 at 9:24 am to 632627
quote:
The Air Is Coming Out Of The Housing Bubble
quote:
New single-family home sales plunged by 16.6% from March and were down 26.9% year on year. New home sales dropped to the lowest level since the lockdown in April 2020.
New home sales are often viewed as a leading indicator of the state of the overall housing market.
quote:
The unsold inventory of new homes spiked by 34,000, a historic month-to-month leap. There were 440,000 unsold new homes (seasonally adjusted), the highest level since May 2008 in the midst of the housing bust. Both, the month-to-month and year-over-year increases in unsold new homes were the largest leaps ever recorded, both in numbers of unsold houses and in percentage terms.
The biggest drop in new home sales occurred in the under-$400k price range, indicating that high prices and rising mortgage rates are squeezing middle-class Americans out of the housing market.
Zero Hedge via Schiff Blog
1
Posted on 5/25/22 at 12:32 pm to alpinetiger
ofcourse sales will drop because fewer people are willing to sell and why should they? So they can rebuy a more expensive house with a much higher rate?
this does not mean prices are going lower but in fact prices could even melt up from here. We wont see a sizable correction until the supply outstrips demand and for that we an catalyst like a recession with layoffs->foreclosures or when baby boomers start leaving the housing market in mass (moving into nursing homes/dying)
this does not mean prices are going lower but in fact prices could even melt up from here. We wont see a sizable correction until the supply outstrips demand and for that we an catalyst like a recession with layoffs->foreclosures or when baby boomers start leaving the housing market in mass (moving into nursing homes/dying)
Posted on 5/25/22 at 1:41 pm to audioaxes1
CNBC did a year over year comparison showing what a $300k house with 20% down would cost monthly each of 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2019 that $300k monthly payment was just over $1,100, and in 2022 because of inflated prices and rates that same house would cost over $1,900 per month. Almost $10k more per year 
Those prices were mortgage only, not including taxes, assessments, etc.
Those prices were mortgage only, not including taxes, assessments, etc.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 5/25/22 at 2:16 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Jesus
Posted on 5/26/22 at 11:13 pm to GEAUXT
quote:
We are currently amassing a large amount of cash in the hopes the bubble bursts and we can scoop up a vacation house. Fingers crossed.
This is definitely not going to happen. The MBA economist put out some more projections last week and they do not see the housing supply catching up with the demand for housing which would trigger a home price crash with the exception of a few areas in the country. Flood Insurance 2.0 and risk based insurance are moving at a rapid pace so they do expect areas of the country which are in flood zones to be impacted but the overall rest of the housing market isn't expected to meet the demand until at least 2030 right now.
As of last month there only 300k homes for sale in the US.
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 11:15 pm
Posted on 5/27/22 at 8:46 am to MrLSU
quote:This is not even in the ballpark. As of April there are currently 1,030,000 EXISTING HOMES in US inventory (see below from the US Federal Reserve). As of April there are over 350,000 NEW HOMES in US inventory, which represents 9.0 months of inventory and is over the historical mean of approximately 8 months. The Delta in increased inventory from March to April is the highest recorded in HISTORY. I don't seek out opinions - particularly in housing - because the opinions are either completely wrong or at the least too late to ever be useful. All I do is look at data because most of the housing "analysts" are shilling for their sector and their jobs.
As of last month there only 300k homes for sale in the US.
This post was edited on 5/27/22 at 8:48 am
Posted on 5/27/22 at 9:08 am to MrLSU
quote:
hey do not see the housing supply catching up with the demand for housing
I keep seeing this bullshite but what is the QUALITY of the supply? Are we talking ghetto homes?
No one is going to pay top dollar with higher interest rates for a house that isn't highly coveted.
Posted on 5/27/22 at 9:13 am to alpinetiger
quote:
As of April there are currently 1,030,000 EXISTING HOMES in US inventory (see below from the US Federal Reserve)
At what point does a house under construction get counted as inventory? When the foundation is poured? Permitted? Completed?
Posted on 5/27/22 at 11:55 am to Lou Pai
quote:
The question is when will the fall in pricing be enough to offset the effect of the increase in rates on your monthly payment?
With a 15-30 year loan, it's a waiting game until they lower rates again. You can always refi. The purchase price always remains stagnant.
Posted on 5/27/22 at 7:51 pm to SlowFlowPro
You probably know some title company attorneys. Ask them how many closings they are doing these days. I see the data in surrounding parishes on a daily basis and it’s insanely slow.
Posted on 5/30/22 at 6:04 pm to Aubie Spr96
I work for a National builder. Contract writes are down 55% year over year.
This is going to really show in a few months when closings fall off a cliff.
This is going to really show in a few months when closings fall off a cliff.
Posted on 5/30/22 at 6:50 pm to Lsupimp
Where is JerseyTiger when we need him?
Posted on 5/30/22 at 10:18 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
2019 that $300k monthly payment was just over $1,100, and in 2022 because of inflated prices and rates that same house would cost over $1,900 per month. Almost $10k more per year
I picked a terrible time to not be a homeowner.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 8:14 am to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
CNBC did a year over year comparison showing what a $300k house with 20% down would cost monthly each of 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2019 that $300k monthly payment was just over $1,100, and in 2022 because of inflated prices and rates that same house would cost over $1,900 per month. Almost $10k more per year
I was telling someone about my own townhome the other day.
We bought it in 2017 for $275k, put 5% down ($13,500), and mortgaged $261,500 for 30 years at 4.25% at the time. The mortgage payment (no tax/ins) on that was $1,286/mo. On top of that our tax/ins/HOA were $247/mo (tax), $98/mo (ins), and $190/mo (HOA)...so the total of that payment was $1,821/mo fully loaded basically (leaving out $80/mo PMI to make things even here for later).
Towards the end of 2020 we refi'd to 15 year at 2.375% mortgaging $248,000. That was a mortgage payment of $1,639/mo (30 year @ 2.9% would have been $1,032/mo). On top of that our tax/ins/HOW were $291 (tax), $110/mo (ins) and $190/mo HOA (it's now $210). So the total of our new payment is $2,230/mo fully loaded on a 15 year @ 2.375%.
If you bought out townhouse today using the zillow estimate, it's $436,900. 5% down on that is $21,845 (while we only had to put down $13,500 for 5% in 2017). So you mortgage $415,055 on a 30 year using current freddic mac average of 5.1% that's a mortgage of $2,254/mo. Add in $454/mo (tax), $121/mo ins, $210 (HOA) it's now $3,039/mo fully loaded....
$800 more a month than the 15 year we did back in 2020 after barely paying any principal on the original part of the home from 2017 to then
Even put on the current tax/ins/HOA on our current note it's still only $2,424/mo compared to over $3k/mo on a THIRTY year if you bought now. Buy our house on a 15 year for even better comparison and the mortgage would be $3,135/mo, add on tx/ins/hoa and it's just under 4 grand a month. Absolutely insane.
This post was edited on 5/31/22 at 8:18 am
Posted on 5/31/22 at 8:45 am to Aubie Spr96
For those expecting a downturn, sell me your properties and I'll sell them back in 3 yrs.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 9:16 am to blueboxer1119
quote:
For those expecting a downturn, sell me your properties and I'll sell them back in 3 yrs.
Make me an offer.
Posted on 5/31/22 at 5:15 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
Make me an offer.
Give me an address and Ill have you an offer within 24 hours.
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