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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Posted on 8/6/25 at 11:00 am to
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24565 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 11:00 am to
I've always thought rev est. sounded too high.
Here's a great explanation.
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Posted by Naked Bootleg
Premium Plus® Member
Member since Jul 2021
3613 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 11:06 am to
Seems like investors are unsure. I'd expect much bigger volume today. And only up .04% as of 11:06 CDT

Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24565 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 11:20 am to
quote:

I'd expect much bigger volume today
Could go crazy in a couple of hours.
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 11:59 am to
where is the explanation? I agree with him on the Revenue miss and assume it will be based on high expectations and the Toloka situation, but would like to hear him.
Posted by LChama
Member since May 2020
4020 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 12:16 pm to
Do u think a miss on revenues is enough to take us lower? I have PTSD from February
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24565 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

where is the explanation? I agree with him on the Revenue miss and assume it will be based on high expectations and the Toloka situation, but would like to hear him.

It's in the thread, but he has since revised due to a mistake.
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Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 1:13 pm to
I like this analysis better. He released it yesterday....This would send shock waves

LINK
quote:


Nebius Group N.V.’s Q2 2025 results should show strong revenue growth. I expect $124.3 million in Q2 revenue and $570 million for the full year.
Data center expansion is on track, but I expect Nebius to revise CAPEX guidance upward as new facilities in New Jersey, Israel, and the UK come online.

Key questions for the Q2 results and conference call include updated CAPEX guidance, data center rollout timelines, the status of Avride’s robotaxi launch, and details of the Toloka stake sale.
This post was edited on 8/6/25 at 1:17 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24565 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 1:19 pm to
quote:


I like this analysis better.
good stuff
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

good stuff


very low volume for day before a pre-market earnings....

I am nervously excited
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24565 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

very low volume for day before a pre-market earnings....

I am nervously excited
Precisely!
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 2:47 pm to
Volume picked up the last hour and not in a good direction. Hopeful it’s just cautious holders that get nervous on low volume stockers earnings

Posted by Naked Bootleg
Premium Plus® Member
Member since Jul 2021
3613 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 2:54 pm to
It's all about the guidance.

Do they report in the morning or AH tomorrow?
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
27792 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

Volume picked up the last hour and not in a good direction


You spoke a bit too soon...
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
27792 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Do they report in the morning or AH tomorrow?


Before.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24565 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:05 pm to
They report before the bell.
I ended up selling off some calls so I have about 7k freed up in case of a drop. Just taking a little risk off.

Still riding with 18 call options.
Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
20006 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:06 pm to
This board ought to be lively in the morning.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24565 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

This board ought to be lively in the morning.

That's half the fun
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

It's all about the guidance.


Guidance will be the same…. $750m-$1B ARR by EOY

Big will be a beat on adjusted EBITDA and news on how Toloka impacted Revenue

Also announcing they plan for NJ dc to be open end of month will be nice

This post was edited on 8/6/25 at 3:17 pm
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

I ended up selling off some calls so I have about 7k freed up in case of a drop. Just taking a little risk off. Still riding with 18 call options.


I’m sitting on 2400 shares, 30 $55 calls exp Friday at $1.20 cost, and 30 $70 calls exp Nov at $4.90 cost


I’m either going to go get a job at Kroger tomorrow or go have a nice steak lunch and pass out drunk on the couch before the kids get home from school

ETA: if tomorrow is nice, I will be picking up AMD long and also a short time position on CRWV for next week
This post was edited on 8/6/25 at 3:17 pm
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 8/6/25 at 3:20 pm to
Those $55 calls expiring Friday, we’re sitting at around $2.40 at close today….hoping that means a lot of big money betting on the beat
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