re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

I didn’t hold any of those but Google..which is a long term holding I still have.

Not making a thread, but I bought OMDA for what I hope will be a longish hold. Down more than 20% on a double beat and raise. Healthcare so not AI

Yes. At $15.50, OMDA (Omada Health) is good value for its growth.
The selloff is about 2027 visibility, not the current numbers. Just size it knowing that 2027 visibility is still unknown.

Q3 ([release](LINK
- Revenue was **$91.3M, up 34%**.
- Members reached **1.13M, up 36%**.
- GAAP gross margin was **76%**, up from 66%.
- Net income was **$6.6M**, compared with a loss a year ago.
- Adjusted EBITDA was **$12.4M**, a 14% margin, up from $2.4M.
- 2026 guidance was raised: revenue to **$344–346M** (from $334–340M) and adjusted EBITDA to **$32–34M** (from $21–27M).
- Revenue growth plus EBITDA margin is about 48, comfortably above the Rule of 40 benchmark for growth companies.

At $15.50 (my math):
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$0.96B basic (62.0M shares), ~$1.04B diluted |
| Net cash (no debt) | **$243M (~25% of market cap)** |
| EV | **~$0.72–0.80B** |
| EV / 2026 sales | **~2.1–2.3x** |
| EV / 2027 sales (~22% growth) | **~1.7–1.9x** |
| EV / Q3 adjusted EBITDA run-rate (annualized) | ~15x |
| Forward P/E | ~32x |
| Analyst consensus 3-year growth | Revenue +24%, EPS +72% |

That's roughly 2x sales for a profitable, debt-free company growing 34%. Cheap healthcare-software names usually look like this when the market doubts the growth will last.

Why it fell (call, [Gloom](LINK
1. **Q4 members are expected to decline slightly.** Management blames seasonality and a comparison with an unusual GLP-1 surge from a channel partner in late 2025.
2. **Employers appear to be cutting GLP-1 coverage for 2027.** That partner-driven surge was a big part of 2025's member growth, and management couldn't size the decline.
3. **No 2027 numbers.** The selling season is running late, and management wouldn't quantify 2027 covered-life additions. Investors sell when they can't see next year.
4. **Revenue per member is up only about 5%,** so growth depends mostly on adding members.

What offsets the concerns:

- About 1.5M HCSC covered lives start phasing in on Jan 1. Covered lives aren't members, but they are new pipeline.
- Retention rose to **58% from 43%**.
- Cost per member fell to $81 from $94, which is driving the margin expansion.
- FlexCare is positioned for employers that drop GLP-1 coverage, so less GLP-1 coverage doesn't simply mean fewer members.

The risk:
If 2027 growth slows to around 20%, about 2x sales is still cheap. If GLP-1 cuts push member growth into the teens or lower, growth could fall toward the mid-teens. Then the multiple stays compressed and the stock could trade sideways for a year. Shares outstanding are also up about 6% this year from stock compensation. That's not severe, but watch it.

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This could be a flight to safety company on nasty days, and it can also gain momentum on its own growth.

I was reading that same feed. It’s on the watch list.

CRWV is on Watch. I hope they blowout earnings followed by an even more impressive NBIS earnings on Thursday. It's what's needed to break this downtrend.

Got in at 127 last week and feeling pretty good about it. Ready for another ride back into the 200's.

quote:

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Great day for this stock. Let’s see if it can get back in the $300 range. Highly unlikely, but you never know.

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Not shitting on your comment, but what kind of long term growth are we looking at that makes this company worth $80 billion when they are on pace for $3ish billion in revenue?

Great question.

CRWV gave a pretty solid earnings call - again emphasizing the incredible economics. Same game we have heard $40M mw short term, $20-25M mw over 4/5 years. Switching to prepaid model (like NBIS and IREN).

Emphasized the operating leverage they are gaining - they have 130K GPUS coming off contract in 2027 that are completely free and clear and they estimate $4 billion in ARR from those alone with neglible cost, and 170K in 28 increasing incremental ARR to $10 billion - all chips that are free and clear of debt. I am sure Blurry foresaw that lol

Not to be negative, but this has seen big opens turn sour. Hopefully this is one of those 20% gain type of days leading into tomorrow’s earnings