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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 3/26/26 at 3:03 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 3/26/26 at 3:03 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Are you thinking we're in their shadow?
Yes. Fairly, or not...
0
Posted on 3/26/26 at 3:04 pm to Merica
quote:
Every dollar it drops I’m buying 5 more shares
Damn you're dropping some serious coin, today...
Posted on 3/26/26 at 3:44 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
Meta now plans to spend $10 billion on its AI data center in El Paso, Texas, up from a prior commitment of $1.5 billion.
The data center aims to bring 1 gigawatt of capacity online by 2028.
Meta is ramping up its investments in AI infrastructure, telling Wall Street in January that capital expenditures this year would reach up to $135 billion.
how does this affect nebius? Didn't meta ink a huge partnership with nebius earlier this month?
Posted on 3/26/26 at 3:46 pm to WG_Dawg
Just reaffirms the data center spend.
Nebius compute availability is spoken for and sold the frick out.
Nebius compute availability is spoken for and sold the frick out.
Posted on 3/26/26 at 4:13 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
Nebius compute availability is spoken for and sold the frick out.
You're gonna need to dumb this down for me even more bc I'm kinda dumb
Posted on 3/26/26 at 4:22 pm to WG_Dawg
Regarding the 27bn dollar META contract, only 12bn worth of compute is guaranteed to go to META.
They are a backstop for the other 15bn, Meaning they will buy it if it's available!
They are a backstop for the other 15bn, Meaning they will buy it if it's available!
quote:
Usually, building massive data centers is risky because if nobody rents them, the company loses a ton of money. This deal removes that risk almost entirely.
Guaranteed full house:
Because of Meta's promise to buy the leftover space, Nebius knows that every single computer chip they buy will be making money from day one. They will never have empty equipment sitting around.
Hunting for higher profits:
Nebius can now go to smaller AI startups and charge them premium prices for that extra 15 billion dollars of space. Since Meta is only the backup, Nebius can prioritize selling to the highest bidder first.
The gold star:
Having a giant like Meta sign a deal this big is a massive vote of confidence. It tells other investors and banks that Nebius is a top-tier player, which makes it easier for them to raise more cash and grow even faster.
Building with other people's money:
With these big contracts in hand, Nebius can fund its growth using the guaranteed future payments rather than selling off more of the company.
This post was edited on 3/26/26 at 4:27 pm
Posted on 3/26/26 at 5:35 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
You're gonna need to dumb this down for me even more bc I'm kinda dumb
It means there is a massive shortage of compute available right now. Insatiable demand. And NBIS is about the most premium product available which gives signiificant market power.
Posted on 3/26/26 at 5:58 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
They are a backstop for the other 15bn, Meaning they will buy it if it's available!
We hope that the Meta deal is only $12B. If that's the case, then NBIS has sold out its capacity without help from Meta.
Genius move, actually, as Meta is prepaying for part of the data center which helps NBIS build the data center with less borrow.
Posted on 3/26/26 at 6:05 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
We hope that the Meta deal is only $12B. If that's the case, then NBIS has sold out its capacity without help from Meta.
Genius move, actually, as Meta is prepaying for part of the data center which helps NBIS build the data center with less borrow.
I was going to say the meta deal/rate is officially the floor. Everything should be north of here.
And I honestly believe we see the economics as the year moves on - each deal will get better and better. That is why I am in no rush with my other data center play (Iren). The speed I care about is do they have every GPU on hand deployed and the answer is yes with a 150K increase in year one. The 2027 deals are going to be better than the 2025 deals - the rental rates suggest it, the capacity constraint suggests it.
Right now there is a massive shortage of power, and that is even with the several GWs of fake power so many companies are arguing they have. Someone work up in Texas and realized there is more contracts than capacity and they are tiering them. If not tier 0 (guaranteed existing) - dont hold your breath on capacity. That is when the shortage becomes ridiculously clear.
Edit: Which back to NBIS plays right into their hands as they tend to be able to do more with less (power) given their software advantage.
This post was edited on 3/26/26 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 3/27/26 at 9:02 am to igoringa
quote:
Right now there is a massive shortage of power
Which is why this downturn, due to the market is a good buying opportunity. The dump NBIS is taking has nada to do with any failures on their part.
I've said for a while that this will take off in the second half of the year, as it becomes more and more obvious that they WILL meet their ARR guidance and that they are the real deal. This fake power scam is giving investors pause, as they are skeptical of the ARR projections.
Companies like NBIS and IREN should not be affected by the hyperscalers as much as they are, when you think about it. Investors are waiting for AI profits. NBIS/IREN are selling picks and shovels. They will make money even if the hyperscalers don't strike gold right away.
Posted on 3/27/26 at 3:04 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
Companies like NBIS and IREN should not be affected by the hyperscalers as much as they are, when you think about it. Investors are waiting for AI profits. NBIS/IREN are selling picks and shovels. They will make money even if the hyperscalers don't strike gold right away.
Goes all the way back (at least) to the California gold rush. You make money by mining the miners.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 8:28 am to bayoubengals88
Looks like NBIS has filled a gap from 3/10.
Doubt it means much as long as geo-political issues control the mkt.
Doubt it means much as long as geo-political issues control the mkt.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 2:42 pm to bigjoe1
Posted on 3/30/26 at 8:42 am to bayoubengals88
Seems like someone dumped NBIS at the opening bell.
Pending other news, I feel like it will work its way back up.
Never know, what with war news, these days. If I had any money, I'd buy some shares, but Im not gonna touch any options until this war is over...
Pending other news, I feel like it will work its way back up.
Never know, what with war news, these days. If I had any money, I'd buy some shares, but Im not gonna touch any options until this war is over...
Posted on 3/30/26 at 8:53 am to Jax-Tiger
Yep. Just a reminder that the core business is once again trading at less than 2x forward ARR, and quite possibly just 1x 2027 ARR.
Posted on 3/30/26 at 9:17 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Just a reminder that the core business is once again trading at less than 2x forward ARR, and quite possibly just 1x 2027 ARR.
I have said that I believe this will run when people believe the guidance on the ARR. I think June/July for sure, and probably a bit in April/May as they anticipate new guidance.
Posted on 3/30/26 at 1:04 pm to Jax-Tiger
Sold a 4/10 $75 put today. Will probably sell a few more if we continue to see weakness
Posted on 3/30/26 at 2:22 pm to itsbigmikey
All we need is another 20 billion dollar deal and we might hit $70
Posted on 3/30/26 at 2:29 pm to The Boat
Wow. This stock is taking a beating today.
Posted on 3/30/26 at 3:00 pm to Paul Allen
It's had a bad three days. It seems every time you check in the reversal starts. 
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