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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 5/16/25 at 8:33 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 5/16/25 at 8:33 am to bayoubengals88
CRWV on fire today
1
Posted on 5/16/25 at 8:46 am to LChama
quote:This seems to always be good for NBIS.
CRWV on fire today
5/20 should be fun
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:00 am to bayoubengals88
Youtube Link (CEO interview)
I don't care if he sounds drunk on earnings calls. What a likeable guy!
I don't care if he sounds drunk on earnings calls. What a likeable guy!
This post was edited on 5/16/25 at 9:38 am
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:04 am to bayoubengals88
More on Clickhouse from one of the most in depth writings on Nebius.
This is from December:
even more interesting...
This is why I got so excited about the recent $6bn valuation for Clickhouse. Nebius's stake being worth upwards of 1.5bn...
This is from December:
quote:
At Nebius’s current price of ~$31/share, the market values its AI cloud business at ~3.3x ARR, even accounting for a considerable burn rate over the next year against ~$3 billion in cash (pro forma recent equity raise), a minimal $1 billion sale price for Avride (2x invested capital to date), and $500 million for its three other software businesses (Toloka, TripleTen, and a minority interest in ClickHouse).
even more interesting...
quote:
Nebius has a 28% ownership stake in ClickHouse, and the latest available valuation of the company was $2 billion in 2021, although it is not considered in our analysis for conservatism. Tech asset valuations peaked in 2021, and the lack of a recent fundraising round may suggest that the asset’s current value falls short of its previously recorded valuation.
This is why I got so excited about the recent $6bn valuation for Clickhouse. Nebius's stake being worth upwards of 1.5bn...
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:29 am to bayoubengals88
Why do I always ask this question too late?
"Why didn't I buy more?"
I thought about it and didn't pull the trigger. I am happy with what I have right now, though...
"Why didn't I buy more?"
I thought about it and didn't pull the trigger. I am happy with what I have right now, though...
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:30 am to bayoubengals88
I bought positioned a good bit of $40 calls when it was at $23. Hopefully it keeps this momentum.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:35 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:No kidding. I only nibbled at $20
"Why didn't I buy more?"
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:36 am to OhFace55
quote:Expiry?
I bought positioned a good bit of $40 calls when it was at $23. Hopefully it keeps this momentum.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:38 am to bayoubengals88
8/12
Posted on 5/16/25 at 9:55 am to OhFace55
quote:Great play. Do you plan on unloading a few before earnings?
8/12
I'm all in on Jan 2027, but I'm treating those like shares.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:44 am to bayoubengals88
I will probably just ride it out. I think I can get these sold at $46-48 before august. I already own a good bit of shares so I am just looking to sell.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 11:29 am to OhFace55
I'm still in the red on this b/c I bought right before it plummeted. 
Posted on 5/16/25 at 11:54 am to OhFace55
quote:
think I can get these sold at $46-48 before august.
What kind of short term (1-3. Months) forecast can be expected? I have another stock I want to add to but want to be as educated as possible. Just looking for opinions. TIA.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 12:15 pm to Screaming Viking
quote:Mathmatically, excluding any cash on the balance sheet (there was 2.5bn last quarter), NBIS is worth about $60/share right now.
What kind of short term (1-3. Months) forecast can be expected?
If we just use Coreweave's current market cap compared to revenue (7.5x),then we get this:
NBIS AI business 2025 targeted ARR is 1bn
1bn * 7.5 = 7.5bn
That's $32 per share
BUT,
Clickhouse
We've recently found out that NBIS stake in Clickhouse will be 1.5bn even after dilution.
AVride
Could be worth anywhere from 5 to 10bn, let's assume 3bn.
Tolaka
(Bezos invested)
guessing 500mm
Tripleten
guessing 100mm
I think the current value is 12.6 billion, which puts us at $53.61 per share.
I'd expect the market to wake up to some of this post earnings.
If they still have 1.5bn in cash this quarter then you can tack that on for an even $60/share.
---------
And this doesn't include the fact that NBIS owns its data centers and everything in them (GPUs aside). CRWV doesn't own anything, other than debt.
This post was edited on 5/16/25 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 5/16/25 at 12:34 pm to bayoubengals88
Nice upward momentum today
Posted on 5/16/25 at 2:01 pm to The Boat
Are we expecting a good earnings report?
Posted on 5/16/25 at 2:14 pm to AuburnTigers
$38 looks like resistance
Posted on 5/16/25 at 2:20 pm to The Boat
quote:I think you're right. It has been for a looong time. A break through would be huge.
$38 looks like resistance
Excellent volume today. It could happen yet!
This post was edited on 5/16/25 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 5/16/25 at 2:23 pm to AuburnTigers
quote:Hell if I know!
Are we expecting a good earnings report?
Here are some numbers:
Q1 estimate is at 57.7m revenue
Last earnings, Arkady mentioned that they would have 220m ARR by March, which translates to March revenue of 18.33m
He said that on 20 Feb.
They are currently targeting 62.5m to 83.33m per month by year's end (750m-1bn) ARR
I think that CRWV's beat is good news as is continued high CAPEX for the majors. I am hopeful that we will beat, however, I think that the plan and vision still matters more at this stage. I'm really wanting to hear more about how the subsidiaries are doing....
How much cash is left will be a huge point of interest.
This post was edited on 5/16/25 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 5/16/25 at 2:36 pm to AuburnTigers
Here's some more insight on earnings.
I didn't know KC was delayed.
I didn't know KC was delayed.
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