re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Another 8% down pre-market…. I bought the dip way to early about 10 times

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I have a small position and trying to decide whether to ride it out or cut losses and buy Palantir or NVDA while they are down.

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I still have a good number of shares, even though I did lose some when I got caught up in the options game. Nebius is still my 2nd biggest stock position.

I still believe this stock is going to make money and plan on holding for a while. If it rebounds, I will hold it until I can pay long term Capital gains on it. I could shift my money to another stock, but I don't see anything out there that has the potential to rise as much as NBIS, especially since it will be a long term holding for me early in Q2 of 2026.

As someone said, the whole sector is down, not just NBIS. This fall has nothing to do with the management team, their strategy, or their execution. It has everything to do with the economic conditions and folks are scared of AI. People don't see a benefit commensurate with the amount of money being poured into AI.

I think the winds will change, as they always do, and this stock will rise again - most analysts have price targets absurdly high, given the price of the stock right now.

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At this point I want to see a week's worth of sideways on any AI or quantum before any more buying,

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Strange as it seems, I see good things happening today.

FWIW

Goldman is projecting $6.6B of revenue for 2026.

88% gross margins.

Over $2B of EBIT, $7 earnings per share.

If their assumptions are correct, NBIS is trading at less than 3.5x price to forward sales, roughly 11-12x price to forward earnings.

And NBIS revenue expected to expand compute/revenue for 2027.

Do with this information what you will.

What does reflect on share price?

This is a lie.



No, this does not appear to be accurate based on the latest available information about Nebius Group (NBIS), the AI infrastructure company (formerly part of Yandex).

### Key discrepancies:
- **Goldman Sachs' projections**: Goldman Sachs has covered NBIS with a Buy rating, but their most recent known price targets are in the $68–$137 range (from mid-2025 initiations and updates). There is no public evidence of a Goldman report projecting exactly **$6.6B revenue for 2026**, 88% gross margins, >$2B EBIT, or $7 EPS specifically. Goldman has been positive on Nebius' growth (citing strong margins from deals and AI cloud scaling), but their commentary focuses on 2025 growth and general 2026+ acceleration, not these precise figures.

- **Company's own 2026 guidance (from Q3 2025 earnings, November 11, 2025)**: Nebius guided to **$7–9B in annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026** — not full-year revenue of $6.6B. ARR is a forward-looking metric (often higher than recognized revenue in high-growth/capex-heavy businesses like AI cloud). Actual recognized revenue for 2026 would likely be lower than end-of-year ARR due to ramp-up timing, though major hyperscaler deals (e.g., up to ~$19B with Microsoft over 5 years, $3B with Meta) support rapid scaling.

- **Gross margins**: Nebius has highlighted "attractive" or "good" gross margins from deals, and AI cloud platforms can achieve high margins (70–90%+ at scale once capex is deployed). 88% is plausible for a mature AI infrastructure business but not explicitly projected by Goldman or the company yet.

- **EBIT, EPS, and valuation math**:
- No public analyst (including Goldman) or company guidance matches >$2B EBIT or $7 EPS for 2026.
- Current consensus (across multiple analysts) still shows losses or negative EPS in the near term due to massive capex (Nebius is spending billions on GPU clusters and data centers).
- Shares outstanding: ~250–260M (based on recent market cap ~$22B at ~$85–90/share as of mid-November 2025).
- At $6.6B revenue: <3.5x forward P/S would imply market cap ~$23B (close to current levels).
- But with company-guided $7–9B ARR by end-2026, many bulls (and analysts like Northland, DA Davidson, BWS) see much higher potential revenue run-rate into 2027+, trading at low teens or single-digit multiples on forward metrics — not specifically the numbers cited.

- **2027 expansion**: Yes, Nebius has repeatedly said demand is sold out, capacity is ramping aggressively (targeting 800MW–1GW active by end-2026, >2.5GW contracted), and revenue/compute will expand significantly in 2027 and beyond. This part aligns directionally.

### Summary
The claim seems like a bullish interpretation (possibly from social media or a non-Goldman source) extrapolating from Nebius' $7–9B 2026 ARR guidance and high-margin AI cloud economics, but it overstates or misattributes specifics to Goldman Sachs. Actual Goldman coverage has been positive but more conservative on near-term targets. Nebius remains a high-growth AI infrastructure play with massive upside if it executes on capacity and deals — many analysts have price targets $125–$200+ — but the exact figures you quoted don't match verified reports or guidance.

What just happened things looking to have turned

I sold most of my position at $85 ($18 per share gain) and now it will fly.

And a flip to green.

Momentarily, at least.