re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Did the same thing myself on my first options purchase (not saying this is your 1st but mine was) and got lucky like you that the price was dropping. Have to check it 5 times until you get more used to it. On schwab, it will automatically open the ticket as STO if you click the BID. It will open the ticket as BTO if you click the ASK. You can change it to your liking but that's what got me the first time.

This frickin guy can kick rocks.

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I'm starting to get the feeling that IREN accepted a bad deal and is trying to bolster share price before an egregious earnings report.

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That wouldn't be great for the short term of the industry

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I could be way off, but it is a common playbook.
I also wouldn't be very concerned for NBIS since they announce next Tuesday.

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That wouldn't be great for the short term of the industry

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Maybe not, but NBIS will have an earnings report in 5 days to offset it.

I think they need to further separate themselves from the other companies they keep getting lumped in with, or this earnings report may not affect the stock price the way we are anticipating.

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I'm starting to get the feeling that IREN accepted a bad deal and is trying to bolster share price before an egregious earnings report.

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Don’t think it was a bad deal. I read that it was ~85% margin before EBITDA which puts this guys numbers waaaaaaaay off. Also, they wouldn’t do that, even for bad earnings, which I don’t think they are blowing this out of the water.

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I bet another offering is coming to pay for the 6bil in gpu they need upfront in the Microsoft deal

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First, where did you get the $6B in GPU for the MSFT deal? Secondly, it’s a phased deal starting in December of this year, in NJ which has already been funded to a great extent. Last, we just had an offering and additional cash. NBIS has about $5B in cash, minus any they might have spent on land for new data centers.

We will hear more next Tuesday

Sometimes it's not about reality, but perception. I hope NBIS give clear guidance on the timeline to profitability.

I think there is a perception that IREN, CIFR, NBIS, CRWV, etc, will never be profitable - they are just chasing revenue at a cost that is proving to be too high.

Yes my apologies, my understanding is iren owes dell 5.8b for that Microsoft deal they signed pm.

another way to put it

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The market is currently focused on the headline numbers of these large GPU rental deals, rather than examining the details of the economics and profitability of these deals, as they are really bad. The entire industry is transitioning from an oligopoly, where margins were decent, to a commodity market.

My prediction is that in the end, many of these business models will blow off, and the cloud provider that has its own strong ASIC development for inference will be the strongest to come out on top of this, as they won't have to pay the 75% $NVDA gross margin for inference and will be able to have a sustained business model & better pricing.

$GOOGL is currently in the top spot with TPUs, followed by $AMZN with Trainium.