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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:00 pm to
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24567 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

i do not understand this - how was that deal bad? i have seen the bear tweets that abuse math - i mean who has gotten 20% prepaid with none applied until year 3. 85 percent margins.

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Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:00 pm to
Just got here. Ugh. Pain. Down 260k

Selling shares right now and buy 200 11/7 $130c at 2.75. frick it

Just extremely hard to be we are down $9 on avg volume day
This post was edited on 11/3/25 at 2:05 pm
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:08 pm to
IREN headed back up. We are a lot strong than them, yet we haven’t gotten the rebound they are getting right now.
This post was edited on 11/3/25 at 2:11 pm
Posted by igoringa
South Mississippi
Member since Jun 2007
12379 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:15 pm to
in that tweet - where are they getting the $3billion for conversion?

probably the same place they get this: "then they will have to raise $3.4B in debt to fund it (probably at 10% interest)"

last raise was at 0 - somehow find it hard to believe it would be 10%.


Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
20006 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:15 pm to
All if this background noise about IREN - a company as I understand it is pivoting to AI from BTC mining due to demand for compute? This has nothing to do with the framework, target market or business plan of NBIS.

Market will catch on soon enough. Just have to endure.
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
27793 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:18 pm to
Sometimes it takes time for investors to process what is happening. Hopefully, their strategy includes buying NBIS before the earnings report.

Just haven't seen that grind back towards break even today, like we've seen in the past. I'd like to see a "mini-recovery" to the -$5 territory, so we don't have as much of a hole to dig ourselves out for the rest of the week.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48733 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

Selling shares right now and buy 200 11/7 $130c at 2.75. frick it

not to question because you've done well but why are you selling into weakness? you just burned 8% of your profits and you clearly think the price is going up from here

???
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24567 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

in that tweet - where are they getting the $3billion for conversion?

Per Grok:
"Site conversion" refers to transforming IREN's Childress, Texas site from its existing state into a fully operational data center capable of supporting 200 MW of liquid-cooled IT load.
This process includes building new data center phases, installing power infrastructure, and integrating advanced cooling systems for Nvidia GB300 GPUs.
The post's estimate of $15M per MW for site conversion aligns with industry benchmarks, as RSMeans 2019 data suggests $14–16M per MW for modern data centers, adjusted for 2025 inflation and liquid-cooling costs.

Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

Just haven't seen that grind back towards break even today, like we've seen in the past. I'd like to see a "mini-recovery" to the -$5 territory, so we don't have as much of a hole to dig ourselves out for the rest of the week.


Was my hope as well, now my fear, is people are selling off at the end of the day to not be holding overnight.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24567 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

not to question because you've done well but why are you selling into weakness?
He's leveraging up. We do it often.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24567 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

you just burned 8% of your profits and you clearly think the price is going up from here

8% doesn't matter. When the recovery happens he's betting on his calls being up 25% or more.
Posted by LChama
Member since May 2020
4020 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:23 pm to
Did we ever hear what the industry changing news announcement was? It was supposed to be within 45 days. Was that all BS?
Posted by igoringa
South Mississippi
Member since Jun 2007
12379 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

All if this background noise about IREN - a company as I understand it is pivoting to AI from BTC mining due to demand for compute? This has nothing to do with the framework, target market or business plan of NBIS.


Full disclosure i say this as someone who was 55/45 investment split this morning towards NBIS vs IREN and now 75/25 after cashing out some IREN options this morning.

IREN has said for years they are a computer company and the strategy was to build out and run miners to facilitate. Their CEO actually hates crypto and they don't carry any (sell immediately upon mining). this was their plan and they have been biding their time. Different than WULF or CIFR who are true transitions.




Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

not to question because you've done well but why are you selling into weakness? you just burned 8% of your profits and you clearly think the price is going up from here


Because I want to make 100% of my money on the way back up, not 10%
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:27 pm to
quote:

Did we ever hear what the industry changing news announcement was? It was supposed to be within 45 days


Pretty sure it was the Announcement of their new AI Cloud 3.0 named “Aether”
This post was edited on 11/3/25 at 2:28 pm
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
27793 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

not to question because you've done well but why are you selling into weakness?


A strategy that works with this stock is to sell shares when the price is down and buy options on the way back up. Sell the options before they expire and use the profits to buy shares, in the event that the stock keeps going up. If it does, you profit. If it takes another downturn, sell shares and buy options on the way down. Eventually, it turns upward again, and you're loaded up with calls.

We had a spike last week, but we all thought it was going to continue to ride up and we wouldn't see a pullback until AFTER the earnings report (especially after the deals IREN and CIFR signed). Obviously, we were wrong. Now some of us are loading up on more calls.

Two steps down, followed by three steps up. Lose money on the way down and make twice as much on the way back up.

I just bought some more 11/21 calls. I'm not as aggressive as IT_DAWG, though. I try to leave enough of a buffer so that we have time to recover from a day like today. I may leave a little money on the table, but I'm not in the pressure cooker, as much, either...
This post was edited on 11/3/25 at 2:41 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24567 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

Pretty sure it was the Announcement of their new AI Cloud 3.0 named “Aether”

He's talking about this, and he has not delivered yet.

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Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
27793 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:42 pm to
I hope it involves graphene...

And, I hope he announces it before 11/21.

This post was edited on 11/3/25 at 2:48 pm
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26686 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:47 pm to
Well, this is probably the single largest loss day I’ve ever had

Figured they were selling off at the end to avoid holding overnight.

I guess we needed to fill this gap back at $120 anyways, right

Start the day up $4 with great industry news and end the day down $11 with no real bad news or national event. Absolutely crazy

CRWV only down 5.5% compared to our 8% too
This post was edited on 11/3/25 at 2:54 pm
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
27793 posts
Posted on 11/3/25 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

Absolutely crazy


We live for this shite...
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