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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 8/27/26 at 6:44 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 8/27/26 at 6:44 am to bayoubengals88
I'm way late to the game on NBIS, I've just started hitting up MTalk. Should I go ahead and get in on NBIS now. It certainly sounds like for longterm I should.
Posted on 8/27/26 at 6:47 am to jp4lsu
Read up and know what it is, but yes many of us are still buying at these levels.
Posted on 8/27/26 at 7:43 am to jp4lsu
I think people will say the same thing at $500 and $850, and I think there will be 3-4x long term upside from those levels.
I’m still a buyer.
I’m still a buyer.
Posted on 8/27/26 at 7:53 am to bayoubengals88
New architectures will allow for their 5GW build out to produce 200bn in revenue by early 2030s.
Can they garner a trailing 3x multiple in sales? What are they priced at now? 120x trailing?
600bn market cap then.
$2200 per share with no dilution.
Call it $1750 after share dilution.
Just buy and hold.
I’m more bullish than ever. I have no idea what shorts are thinking.
Someone enlighten me?
Can they garner a trailing 3x multiple in sales? What are they priced at now? 120x trailing?
600bn market cap then.
$2200 per share with no dilution.
Call it $1750 after share dilution.
Just buy and hold.
I’m more bullish than ever. I have no idea what shorts are thinking.
Someone enlighten me?
Posted on 8/27/26 at 7:57 am to bayoubengals88
I bought a few more shares a month ago at $154….kicking myself for not buying more
This post was edited on 8/27/26 at 7:58 am
Posted on 8/27/26 at 8:00 am to bayoubengals88
I have more in OUST than NBIS. Would you sell OUST to buy more NBIS at these price levels? I do have some dry powder and was wondering if you would buy 10-30 shares at this price or buy calls or leaps for 2027 or 2028? Also I was thinking it may be better to just load up on NBIL.
This post was edited on 8/27/26 at 8:24 am
Posted on 8/27/26 at 9:08 am to bayoubengals88
It seems that the shorts make plays based on overall macro environment of whether or not AI demand can meet the capex required for the data center build out.
NBIS itself is a strong company but if the off-take fails, then NBIS fails. Short positions seem to come from a place of overall AI uncertainty rather than questioning NBIS as a company.
NBIS, CRWV, and the like likely have over 99% of revenue heavily exposed to AI spend.
NBIS itself is a strong company but if the off-take fails, then NBIS fails. Short positions seem to come from a place of overall AI uncertainty rather than questioning NBIS as a company.
NBIS, CRWV, and the like likely have over 99% of revenue heavily exposed to AI spend.
Posted on 8/27/26 at 9:14 am to cropduster1348
I am convinced shorts are banking on macro dynamics and their ability to influence the market with media releases. I am equally convinced that when they drive the price down to a desired amount, they not only cash in on the shorts but also buy to hold. The data is solid on this one. It’s established over a 8 quarter stretch now, with a solid pipeline of new revenue and hiring product pricing on the books.
Posted on 8/27/26 at 9:17 am to michael corleone
quote:of course they do. Short positions will lose money over long time frames. A quick in and out short though (a couple weeks max) can make huge money especially if 2-3x leveraged and appropriately sized
I am equally convinced that when they drive the price down to a desired amount, they not only cash in on the shorts but also buy to hold
Real money doesn’t go short because they think the company sucks. They do it because they think the price will go down
Posted on 8/27/26 at 9:29 am to jerryc436
quote:
I have more in OUST than NBIS. Would you sell OUST to buy more NBIS at these price levels?
I have both, as well. I have more NBIS than OUST. I think both companies are positioned well in their respective sectors as best-in-class, but the advantage I see with NBIS is that the demand is crazy right, now. They are pre-selling as much compute as they can bring on line, as is their competitors. The disadvantage with NBIS is that there is some pushback against data centers in the US. I think they are doing a good job of overcoming that and eventually they will get what they need.
I'm not sure the demand for Ousters products is a fool proof as NBIS. I don't think they can just "build it and they will come".
As someone mentioned, NBIS's price is going to fluctuate based on market sentiment over AI spending and borrowing in the neocloud sector. So the company can be doing fine, and the stock will tank. In the long run, the stock should be fine, because can't can't ignore how much revenue they are generating, and IMO, NBIS is doing the best job of controlling their finances and they also have the best product.
Posted on 8/30/26 at 6:17 pm to Jax-Tiger
Posted on 8/31/26 at 7:03 pm to Jax-Tiger
Anthropic chose Lambda Labs for a 35bn dollar deal.
Makes me optimistic for the possibility of a Google/NBIS deal to increase our backlog to roughly 100bn.
Makes me optimistic for the possibility of a Google/NBIS deal to increase our backlog to roughly 100bn.
Posted on 8/31/26 at 9:48 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Anthropic chose Lambda Labs for a 35bn dollar deal. Makes me optimistic for the possibility of a Google/NBIS deal to increase our backlog to roughly 100bn.
unless hyper scaler pricing has increased to over 20 per MW (compared to the 12 they got for vineland) - I would be surprised if they did another super large hyper scaler deal. Their differentiator is software so that's have more value to non-hyper scale. I should get them a premium.
Posted on 9/1/26 at 7:39 am to igoringa
Approaching 200 in the pre-market
Posted on 9/1/26 at 9:27 am to Sabans straw hat
Sam's to be the cyclical bad sentiment for AI companies, combined with a down week in the market.
It will bounce back...
It will bounce back...
Posted on 9/1/26 at 10:10 am to cropduster1348
quote:
NBIS, CRWV, and the like likely have over 99% of revenue heavily exposed to AI spend.
This is a very similar situation as the internet buildout of the late 1990s as it pertains to the neo cloud/data center builders. Most fiber optic companies went bankrupt back then. The builder always gets left holding the bag because they are taking all the risk. Lot of fiber got laid that never had the usefulness that the builders initially thought.
Investing in a Data center builder, who assumes all the risk that not only the product they build will be of future use to someone (and Data centers have very limited use outside of AI), AND that they will get paid what their customers were forecasting (OpenAI and Anthropic must grow revenue way higher to support these future revenue assumptions of the Data Center builders) is why these neo clouds will be shorted.
“But why would all these smart people misallocate capital to a project that doesn’t have much return”.
Go to China. There’s been whole cities built that nobody lives in. They are now abandoned. Why were they built? Because at one time, some smart people got together and anticipated they’d be of use. The builders/lender/govt all got behind it. Yet it failed.
“What’s the bear case”
It’s as simple as there’s not enough free cash flow or return on investment to support the investments that the hyperscalers/anthropic/openAI are making. The circular financing Ponzi scheme isn’t going to last.
Posted on 9/1/26 at 10:16 am to NotStupid
The “future use” issue is overblown. There will never be a time in the future where AI compute wont be needed, and unless/until we advance past the GPU that compute will be run predominantly in data centers. Whether or not it’s a good allocation of capital is another issue entirely.
In large scale real estate developments it is frequently the first guy in who loses everything and the second guy makes all the money. You are right to be suspicious that the builders will get paid
In large scale real estate developments it is frequently the first guy in who loses everything and the second guy makes all the money. You are right to be suspicious that the builders will get paid
Posted on 9/1/26 at 12:18 pm to cgrand
quote:
The “future use” issue is overblown. There will never be a time in the future where AI compute wont be needed,
Exactly.
We are still closer to the beginning, than the end. Think of all of the uses in medicine, engineering, traffic control, robotis, self driving cars, etc, where we have barely scratched the surface.
Posted on 9/1/26 at 12:54 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
Think of all of the uses in medicine, engineering, traffic control, robotis, self driving cars, etc, where we have barely scratched the surface.
I see it as LLMs are essentially like search engines of 30 years ago.
Google was able to monetize their search while also keeping the experience free for the end user. This is why they were successful. It was truly a winner take all race in internet search engines. Because look at the other ones that came out around the same time.
ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini…can’t do this. They can’t make the end user experience free while also monetizing and making it profitable. And that doesn’t take into account the open source free ones that will always be competing against them.
So in the end what will these products really do? I think they will be niche B2B products. Just another iteration of SAAS. On a much smaller scale than what it’s TAM is being billed as today. SAAS has clearly been disrupted due to AI/LLMs replicating what they do. But I don’t see them doing anything outside the SAAS space. And businesses will only implement AI if it costs less than what they currently use. But can Anthropic price their LLM/token usage low enough to get a business to implement their tech, yet still make a profit themselves given how expensive it is to run? I don’t think the math will ever work.
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