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re: More on how much is enough to retire......

Posted on 4/5/21 at 3:18 pm to
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
71489 posts
Posted on 4/5/21 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

Until it's not or you'll be means tested some other way to make you pay more.




Anything can happen but I dont really buy into the doom and gloom talk about how much they will mess with retirement accounts.

It would take a lot for them to change things up where suddenly things that got put away via roth could be taxed IN retirement. Now I can see them changing things up with early withdrawals, minimum distributions, age changes, etc...but not necessarily overhauling it where if I withdrew $100k from my roth account in retirement past the required age that being taxed. With tax brackets being so low right now, I'd rather just pay the tax now.
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24983 posts
Posted on 4/5/21 at 8:05 pm to
I’m in about as good of a retirement position as I could have hoped at this stage of my career. I think the question my wife and I will have to decide “when is enough”...as I get older, the idea of building multi millions in net worth ‘just because’ we could has become less appealing. I like the idea of financial independence and early “retirement” more with every passing year. I think we could retire in our early 40s if we seek it.

Once you get around the 7 figure net worth arena, the compounding becomes like magic...passively returning six figures annually and I can’t imagine why we would continue working.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91271 posts
Posted on 4/5/21 at 8:23 pm to
quote:

10% is not hard at all, literally if you just invested in S&P 500 index fund like Vanguard's VFIAX which has .04% expense ratio it's returned over 13% since introduced in 2000. That's over 20 years of 13% annual RoR, which it would have to produce well under 7% for the next 20 years to have a <10% RoR over a 40 year span/usual working life span.



What? VFIAX has returned about 8% annualized since inception.

Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11826 posts
Posted on 4/5/21 at 9:02 pm to
Y'all be careful with the roth's. They changed the game on them and require a forced liquidation upon your death. Stay liquid, the government will always change the game.
Posted by MMauler
Primary This RINO Traitor
Member since Jun 2013
23886 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 7:19 am to
quote:

It assumes roughly $10,000 on shelter per year.


Hell, that would cover little more than property taxes - depending on the value of your house. If you're renting, that wouldn't begin to cover a decent 1 bedroom apartment anywhere outside of the projects.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
71489 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 7:23 am to
quote:

What? VFIAX has returned about 8% annualized since inception.

Thats my bad, I was actually looking at 10-yr return when I said that. The field was actually 10yr/since inception, but makes sense it would take 10 yr since the inception was 21 years ago almost now.

Besides that point, all our retirement accounts are a good bit over 10% Annual RoR since they've been active, but it also hasn't been very hard to make money in that time frame either and realize that. Some part of it is luck to get a 10% return over 30-40 year time frame for sure, but it's also again not super difficult unless again you get really unlucky with market timing or just stay way too conservative or never adjust your portfolio(s). Just stay out of bonds for a while now and returns should have been really high overall for you. Certainly in the last 5 years if your portfolios havent gone well above 10% you're doing it wrong basically

In my dad's traditional IRA, he did well over 10% from when he started in the 80s to now (retired a while ago now). That was mostly with investment pros picking good single stocks mostly for him in that time frame.
This post was edited on 4/6/21 at 7:36 am
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
71489 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 7:31 am to
quote:

I’m in about as good of a retirement position as I could have hoped at this stage of my career. I think the question my wife and I will have to decide “when is enough”...as I get older, the idea of building multi millions in net worth ‘just because’ we could has become less appealing. I like the idea of financial independence and early “retirement” more with every passing year. I think we could retire in our early 40s if we seek it.

Once you get around the 7 figure net worth arena, the compounding becomes like magic...passively returning six figures annually and I can’t imagine why we would continue working.


Some people just like to work, my wife is certainly one of them. She has her own business and W2's full time for another but still manages her time quite well. I could see myself just pivoting careers in 5-10 years down the road from working corporate finance to investment/financial planning side of things as I find that more and more interesting. Couldnt see myself just not working in my 40s or 50s though, so long as I have something fun to do.

The only issue I have with very early retirement is if you time it wrong, you could be in trouble, or at least back in the work force pretty quickly. I totally get things like the FIRE movement but seems like that to work for a lot of people who arent super high earners you really need to be super minimalist for many years and that's just not what we are. We certainly arent big spenders, but we arent suddenly going to be spending like $1000 or less a month for 10 years or so just to hyper save for retirement in our 40s.
This post was edited on 4/6/21 at 7:36 am
Posted by FinleyStreet
Member since Aug 2011
8000 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 7:43 am to
Personally, I plan on scaling back to part-time at some point - hopefully in 4-5 years or so. I can't imagine working until 65, but I also don't have the money to quit now. Part time work seems like a happy medium.
Posted by TopFlightSecurity
Watertown, NY
Member since Dec 2018
1318 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 7:53 am to
Military pension is where it's at - especially if you start saving at 10% and then add half of each pay raise / promotion.
Posted by Popths
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2016
4392 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 7:59 am to
So would that be 600K per person or couple?
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
71489 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 8:06 am to
quote:

Military pension is where it's at - especially if you start saving at 10% and then add half of each pay raise / promotion.



Definitely know some very wealthy former military folks. One of our controllers is 50 now and had the military pay for his school and did pretty good stuff outside that while in military taking advantage of things.

He was the CFO of a company we acquired about 6 years back and thought for sure he would leave when presented with staying on as a controller over that part of the company with pay cut (it actually wasnt a gigantic cut), but he took it, and he only did because he is incredibly well off and just wanted to continue working because he liked it. He has a house flipping business on the side he's just the money man basically for and has 2 guys who do all the leg work for him there. 3 years ago he moved into a 6,500 sq-ft house (by himself) just so he could build his dream pool in the backyard
Posted by B4YOU
Member since May 2018
344 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 11:42 am to
quote:

Not bad Thunderbird!

I’d adjust your SWR to 4%. Also need to factor in pre vs after tax funding and assumed tax rates

I think your SSI will be higher than your projection but not a bad assumption. Remember that married couples will get a better benefit


Agree. SWR at 4% is pretty standard. Retirement age matters. If you are going retire prior to SSA availability, then 4% makes more sense than 5%. If after SSA, then 5% might work.

Everyone’s situation is different. Aging in America is more expensive than people think.

Staring with the assumption that a 5% SWR and 10% RoR seems risky.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
71489 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

Staring with the assumption that a 5% SWR and 10% RoR seems risky.



This is with the retirement age of 65, not early retirement like others have stated. I certainly would be different if say we fully retired at 55, but if the plan goes, then I dont see any reason to scoff at 5% SWR if you have done 10% over 30-40 years, especially if you just adjust as you can. I.E. in down years, take out less if you can. In our scenario we wouldnt even need 5% a year from our accounts if we hit our number. In the end a SWR should really just be based on your portfolio performance and inflation. Definitely need to factor in inflation some if that changes.

10% is way more realistic than people make it out to be. Again it's about how you invest. If we're just talking your face value Annual RoR with dividends reinvested you got that in the S&P 500 alone over the vast majority of 40 year spans if you look at recent retirees over the last 20-ish or so years. Just using a calc like this one:
LINK

I dont only invest in S&P 500 by any means, but I've just found some people to be too conservative overall and miss out on a lot of returns. If that's the risk tolerance they want to take that's fine, but we're a far way from the days of a 60/40 portfolio making much sense too.
This post was edited on 4/6/21 at 2:14 pm
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
35451 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 3:08 pm to
I’m surprised we haven’t seen more FIRE folks chime in. I’m very interested to see how many people actually stick to the plan and think they can make it work long term.
Posted by CorkRockingham
Member since Jun 2017
502 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 3:40 pm to
What you talking about bruh. I’m not seeing that for someone that started working in 1980 and retired this year. 8.8% with dividends reinvested and accounting for inflation.

10% seems difficult in light of that news.
Posted by Tigre85
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2019
2078 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 9:48 pm to
Making it on that now . Had a bad car wreck and now get ss disability. Invested well for 30 years , interest from investments and disability get us by . Everything is paid for and wife works for state , good insurance . Disability cuts down our travel but I can still walk .
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
40116 posts
Posted on 4/6/21 at 10:23 pm to
If all goes to plan we'll FIRE between 53 and 55. Shooting for ~6M.
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18771 posts
Posted on 4/7/21 at 8:41 am to
quote:

We also are doing 100% roth


How is this possible at 6k/year or even whatever the joint contribution?

Don't you expect to get out of the allowable income limit for contribution limit is these days?

Not trying to brag, I'm just a corporate scmuck but had an incredible bonus last year (pure luck) and it put me out of Roth income limit at 32.

Not sure what my plan is going forward other than just maxing 401k match and then piling into a broker account.
This post was edited on 4/7/21 at 8:42 am
Posted by lsujro
north of the wall
Member since Jul 2007
4084 posts
Posted on 4/7/21 at 9:06 am to
backdoor?
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
60585 posts
Posted on 4/7/21 at 9:26 am to
quote:

I want my retirement to be fun and worry free, not being concerned about a small fixed budget. Shooting for minimums and averages won’t let you live like worry free and happy in retirement

This, but I also just dont like working very much Sometimes the thought of a smaller paid off house, a nice garden out back and a porch swing with some tunes playing sounds like heaven
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