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Message
1
Posted on 5/18/25 at 6:45 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Equities will be fine, ultimately this will be good for stocks. All the money exiting sovereign debt is flowing into stocks, gold and btc. I still can't get over the "smart money", aka the bond market, believing doge was going to save them. They literally named it after a shitcoin rugpull, lol.
Bessent went on TV this morning and confirmed what was fairly obvious to anyone who has studied sovereign debt crises, we're going to inflate our way out. Bond holders have been dealt aces since 1981. That's over. They're the sucker at the card table now. Enjoy your capped 5% yield w/ 10% inflation.
Bessent went on TV this morning and confirmed what was fairly obvious to anyone who has studied sovereign debt crises, we're going to inflate our way out. Bond holders have been dealt aces since 1981. That's over. They're the sucker at the card table now. Enjoy your capped 5% yield w/ 10% inflation.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 8:06 pm to Art Blakey
Total Medicare costs are up $70B net since 2019. SS costs are up $500B since $2019. So we’ll use a round $600B increase.
The total federal budget in 2019 was roughly $4T.
So taking that into account, if we cut all other expenditures back to 2019 levels - with 2024 revenue at $5T - we balance the budget instantly. That’s INCLUDING the current SS and Medicare expenditures…no cuts.
The entitlements are a problem but they’re not THE problem. THE problem is we increased spending in 2020 by $2T and never went back. The crooks in DC won’t give up the extra $2T and it’s not being spent on Medicare or SS.
ETA: I know this is an oversimplification but this is doable without a huge disruption in SS or Medicare.
ETA2: obviously interest in the debt is higher than 2019. However with a coordinated cut in spending to $5T to equal govt revenues and cut in interest rate we could balance the financial impact of sucking $1T out of overall spending, refinance the debt at lower rates and put ourselves on a glide path to pay down the deficit.
The total federal budget in 2019 was roughly $4T.
So taking that into account, if we cut all other expenditures back to 2019 levels - with 2024 revenue at $5T - we balance the budget instantly. That’s INCLUDING the current SS and Medicare expenditures…no cuts.
The entitlements are a problem but they’re not THE problem. THE problem is we increased spending in 2020 by $2T and never went back. The crooks in DC won’t give up the extra $2T and it’s not being spent on Medicare or SS.
ETA: I know this is an oversimplification but this is doable without a huge disruption in SS or Medicare.
ETA2: obviously interest in the debt is higher than 2019. However with a coordinated cut in spending to $5T to equal govt revenues and cut in interest rate we could balance the financial impact of sucking $1T out of overall spending, refinance the debt at lower rates and put ourselves on a glide path to pay down the deficit.
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 9:53 am
Posted on 5/18/25 at 10:20 pm to Art Blakey
quote:
the least painful way out is inflating out and I think that's exactly what is about to happen
You CANNOT INFLATE the National Debt away when you consistently run large annual deficits. In the past 10 years US Federal Tax Revenue has been about $39T, while the National Debt increased over $16T. They are spending 40% more than they collect.
Social Security ran a $67B deficit in 2024, leaving it with $2.721T in "ASSETS ("LINK So theoretically Social Security is NOT the problem and nowhere near "going broke".
The problem is Soc Sec "ASSETS" are US Govt paper. That's right, the US Govt lends itself money and considers the notes "ASSETS". But in reality the money has already been spent on NON-SOCIAL SECURITY programs.
If I take $20 from my right pocket and place it in my left pocket in exchange for a $20 "Note" from the left pocket, that I then stick in my right pocket, but THEN SPEND the $20 from my left pocket, I should not consider the $20 "Note" as an "asset". You can't owe yourself money and consider it an asset...unless you are the US Federal Government.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:06 am to TigersHuskers
quote:
Can't wait for that worthless shitstain of a generation to be gone.
Yeah, can’t wait for the generation that turned the entire country gay to run the show.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:18 am to EulerRules
quote:
You CANNOT INFLATE the National Debt away when you consistently run large annual deficits
That is exactly how it is done. You're confusing nominal debt for debt/gdp ratio. Nominal debt goes up but at a slower pace than gdp. They need to take our 123% debt/gdp to 75 or 80. That can only be done by inflation. Austerity blows out the deficit further as tax receipts collapse while transfer payments increase.
Doge was a rugpull. Trimming defense spending was a rugpull. Cutting entitlements rugpulls the career of every member of congress. The 30 yr just hit 5%. What do you think is about to happen? Bessent went on tv yesterday and told us.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:26 am to Art Blakey
quote:
Bessent went on tv yesterday and told us.
Which part are you referring to? (serious question, no smartass-ness intended)
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:43 am to Art Blakey
quote:Unfortunately we're approaching fiscal dominance. Though were aren't there yet, running up rates (devaluing the USD) in order to devalue our debt in real terms concomitantly leads to catastrophic impact on cost-of-carry and therefore our annual deficits. Optimally, we'd like a strong dollar and low rates until Congress gets its deficits controlled. Then we could move to weaken the USD.
That is exactly how it is done. You're confusing nominal debt for debt/gdp ratio. Nominal debt goes up but at a slower pace than gdp. They need to take our 123% debt/gdp to 75 or 80. That can only be done by inflation.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:52 am to jefforize
Pretty big deal but this same evaluation could have been made years ago.
The message here- curb the borrowing!
The message here- curb the borrowing!
Posted on 5/19/25 at 7:57 am to TigersHuskers
quote:
With boomers its "i gots mines and frick everyone else"
You useful idiots don't even grasp that this latest excuse to externalize your failures is you being used.
What about the Gen Z ers that all left high COL places to remote work in smaller towns, hammering home prices up bigly, only to return to the metro areas once they stopped with lockdown mania, but leaving high home prices behind?
Keep whining and pretending life is out of your control. You'll be protesting in DC with purple hair in a few decades. If your life success depended on your daddy leaving you a few hundred thousand dollars and a house, you done screwed up. No one is coming. Expect to self-rescue. Or die.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 8:01 am to TigersHuskers
You are a count. Stop relying on your father and mother to fix the issue in front of you!
Grow up
Grow up
Posted on 5/19/25 at 8:05 am to LChama
Posted on 5/19/25 at 8:29 am to Robcrzy
quote:
Why the frick did these piece of shite assholes do this on a friday after the close. i mean WTF they just fricked a lot portfolios
what an overreaction. 
Posted on 5/19/25 at 8:45 am to slackster
quote:My targets in the market have mostly recovered from the early dip. Saved some money before the drop and scooped up the profits on the way back up
what an overreaction.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 8:59 am to AuburnTigers
The stock market since Trump got in is a circus every day. It’s kind of fun
Opening in the red doesn’t mean shite anymore.
Opening in the red doesn’t mean shite anymore.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:18 pm to dallastiger55
quote:The ETFs I follow are in the green now. Crazy.
Opening in the red doesn’t mean shite anymore.
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