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Started By
Message
re: Main Street starting to feel the pain in Retirement accounts
Posted on 6/13/22 at 2:08 pm to Realityintheface
Posted on 6/13/22 at 2:08 pm to Realityintheface
quote:
Good. Bring the pain! Hope every fricker with a 401K and/or not on welfare learns never to vote Democrat EVER AGAIN!
after 8 years of Bush, we had the crash of 2008. whoses faut was that?
Posted on 6/13/22 at 4:03 pm to Enadious
quote:
after 8 years of Bush, we had the crash of 2008. whoses faut was that?
I am not going to say Bush was a good president by any means but go look at the policies that contributed to the GFC and when those policies went into place. The changes were well before W was in office and date back to when his father was in office and when Clinton was in office.
It is important to understand causation not just correlation. The same people will point to the stock market under Obama but how much would it have increased had it not fallen as far as it did leading up to his inauguration. I tend to think of market success under an administration as how much the all time highs have increased. It is much easier to get 50% gains after losing 50% versus gaining 50% from all time highs.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 4:08 pm to bod312
quote:
It is important to understand causation not just correlation.
Same thing with current oil prices.
Biden isn't helping the situation, but we're here because of the attack on the Energy Sector over the last 25 years.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 4:14 pm to sawtooth
quote:
I’m not sure how it’s smart to keep your money in the market when you see inflation coming.
Bingo. You should just hold cash when inflation is high.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 4:31 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
You should just hold cash when inflation is high.
Negative, all things being equal.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 4:34 pm to Enadious
quote:
after 8 years of Bush, we had the crash of 2008. whoses faut was that?
The a-hole Democrats like Barney Frank and Maxine Waters that fought government oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac insinuating that making it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage was "racist". Hell, if you want, you can trace the root of that crash back to the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 under Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton to loosening the rules of the CRA to force banks to make loans in low-income neighborhoods. Clinton also passed a law that exempted credit default swaps from goverment regulation.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 4:38 pm to sawtooth
quote:Sure you are...
I’m up over 12% for the year.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 4:51 pm to FLObserver
Idk man I’m just gonna work til I die or they send me to the fema camp
Hopefully it won’t take too long!
Hopefully it won’t take too long!
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:13 pm to NOSHAU
There are WAY more ways to make money in a bad market than in a good market.
My wife stays at home and trades options with our funds and in a falling market....correction, in a plummeting market, making money is easy.
There are days she earns over 200% of what she invests in a matter of hours.
My wife stays at home and trades options with our funds and in a falling market....correction, in a plummeting market, making money is easy.
There are days she earns over 200% of what she invests in a matter of hours.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 12:09 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
My wife stays at home and trades options with our funds and in a falling market....correction, in a plummeting market, making money is easy.
I’m not sure that I’ve used the word “easy” while trading options in this insanely volatile market lately, but props to her. I don’t know if she’s going long or short options, but yes, high IV times do present opportunities.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 5:13 am to sawtooth
quote:Correct, you can’t just print trillions and not expect consequences.
How could you not see this coming. I’m not sure how it’s smart to keep your money in the market when you see inflation coming. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates and we all know what the outcome of that will be. You can’t just print trillions and not expect consequences.
What we are seeing at the moment has nothing to do with that. Consequences of overspending and flawed monetary policy will entail substantial USD devaluation.
But USD devaluation is not at play now. Devaluation is not driving current inflation. Hamstrung supply chain and 2° demand-supply mismatch is the driver.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 6:55 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
There are WAY more ways to make money in a bad market than in a good market. My wife stays at home and trades options with our funds and in a falling market....correction, in a plummeting market, making money is easy. There are days she earns over 200% of what she invests in a matter of hours.
This is one of those posts that rarely ages well…
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:14 am to thegreatboudini
quote:
Same thing with current oil prices. Biden isn't helping the situation, but we're here because of the attack on the Energy Sector over the last 25 years.
Strange since the energy sector was thriving until 1/6/2021.
What could’ve changed around 1/6/2021?
This post was edited on 6/16/22 at 9:06 am
Posted on 6/16/22 at 7:35 am to Realityintheface
quote:
Negative, all things being equal.
You are correct in that everyone is going to eat it right now, but your options are as follows:
1) Sit cash and watch inflation eat allegedly 10% of your value (it’s actually much higher)
Or
2) Stay invested as the value of your portfolio plummets AND watch inflation eat 10%+ of your value
Assuming a $100 initial portfolio
1) $100 x .9 (inflation) = $90
2) ($100 x .75 (mkt perf)) x .9 (infl)= $67.50
Which equation do you prefer for the last year?
No one should’ve been invested in the stock market from the point at which the politicians turned off the money spigot and the leftists went ahead with destroying the energy segment in the name of climate change.
It was like cutting off two legs of a stool, the results are entirely predictable.
Inflation has nothing to do with it, it’s going to happen your money either way unless you go into gold or silver and that’s not a sure thing either for reasons I won’t get into here.
Until a new bottom/normal is established a casual investor should not have cash in the global markets with the current administration in charge and should avoid real estate for investment purposes as there are huge impending issues there as well.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 8:36 am to tide06
quote:
Strange since the energy sector was thriving until 1/6/2020. What could’ve changed around 1/6/2020?
What changed on 1/6/2020?
Posted on 6/16/22 at 9:04 am to Yellerhammer5
As soon as the election drama was over the writing was on the wall for the energy sector and no one was going to invest billions given his rhetoric on the campaign trail.
Which of course was a wise decision considering some of his first steps as president were to cut the legs out from the industry with new regs and restrictions when they weren’t messing with the actual leases.
Which of course was a wise decision considering some of his first steps as president were to cut the legs out from the industry with new regs and restrictions when they weren’t messing with the actual leases.
This post was edited on 6/16/22 at 9:06 am
Posted on 6/16/22 at 9:22 am to tide06
quote:
Strange since the energy sector was thriving until 1/6/2021.
What could’ve changed around 1/6/2021?
At least you fixed the dates to what you were trying to imply. My question is what measures are you using to say that the energy sector was thriving until 1/6/2021 and what measures are you using now to say it is no longer thriving?
Posted on 6/16/22 at 10:11 am to bod312
quote:
At least you fixed the dates to what you were trying to imply. My question is what measures are you using to say that the energy sector was thriving until 1/6/2021 and what measures are you using now to say it is no longer thriving?
Do you want me to explain the green 2030 initiative and how the current regime wants to replace fossil fuels with clean energy that does not currently exist? Do you think Trump signs that?
UN: 2030 Agenda
Would you invest billions or even tens of billions into drilling given that kind of mandate from DC?
Joe Biden - “We are going to get rid of fossil fuels”
How about the regulations he’s imposed that make it difficult if not impossible to maintain operations?
Biden New Energy Executive Orders
How about the supply chain chaos he’s in part responsible for which makes it difficult to even service existing platforms?
Amateur Hour: Buttigieg exposed as amateur
We were energy exporters under Trump and now require energy imports under Biden.
Trump touts energy exporter status
I can go on and on. Biden did exactly what he claimed he was going to do and we are all suffering because of it.
This post was edited on 6/16/22 at 10:14 am
Posted on 6/16/22 at 10:31 am to tide06
You literally provided zero evidence to the energy sector thriving until 2021 and how it is no longer thriving. Energy is the best performing sector under the Biden administration as far as market performance.
Just for an example, XOM has had their revenue and profits steadily climb since the start of 2021 and are already above the highest achieved under Trump.
Typically thriving sectors see growth in revenue and earnings as well as absolute values of revenue and earnings. There has been large growths in these measures of the energy sector under Biden but these measures were lower under Trump than Obama or Biden (so far). There definitely are factors other than simply who is president though as well.
I think the current administration plans and vision are impacting the American people. I think it will likely be impacting longer term factors due to a lack of investment in traditional energy sources due to all the deterrents. The issue is saying the energy sector was thriving under trump and is not under Biden really isn't backed up by any current measures that I have seen. That is why I asked what measures are you using for your declaration about when the energy sector was thriving as most traditional measures don't support that claim. I am open to hearing what measures do support that claim.
Just for an example, XOM has had their revenue and profits steadily climb since the start of 2021 and are already above the highest achieved under Trump.
Typically thriving sectors see growth in revenue and earnings as well as absolute values of revenue and earnings. There has been large growths in these measures of the energy sector under Biden but these measures were lower under Trump than Obama or Biden (so far). There definitely are factors other than simply who is president though as well.
I think the current administration plans and vision are impacting the American people. I think it will likely be impacting longer term factors due to a lack of investment in traditional energy sources due to all the deterrents. The issue is saying the energy sector was thriving under trump and is not under Biden really isn't backed up by any current measures that I have seen. That is why I asked what measures are you using for your declaration about when the energy sector was thriving as most traditional measures don't support that claim. I am open to hearing what measures do support that claim.
Posted on 6/16/22 at 11:15 am to bod312
quote:
That is why I asked what measures are you using for your declaration about when the energy sector was thriving as most traditional measures don't support that claim.
I can appreciate where you are coming from now as this is basically an investment board and I was speaking to the situation from a macro economic or even political perspective.
I agree that the energy sector has performed very well under Biden from a stock valuation perspective as of present.
My understanding, and I believe it was discussed on this board previously, is that the street has changed how they value energy sector stocks. In effect they are looking almost exclusively at short term rather than longer term returns. These stocks have played ball and the street seems content for now with the situation.
This to me is like telling a terminal heart disease patient with only a few years to live they are doing fine, but I don’t make the rules, so by their new definition these stocks are outperforming previous administrations.
These short term returns and perspectives are going to doom us from an economic perspective if not addressed either through breakthrough technological growth or an extension of their time frames for ESG and clean 2030 implementation as we simply cannot replace carbon based fuels using current tech and infrastructure.
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