Look at the chart, look at the theme. I can’t buy enough FSLR

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Have you thought about the TAN solar ETF?

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Yep. Just looked at it actually, but I'd be more likely to just pile into a leader or two. I like FSLR, NXT, and ENPH.
And I like to trade SHLS with options.

Explain it to me like I’m 5

The stock has gone from 305 to 205 based on political fears, so that now most of the fear is baked into the price.

Presently, this is one of the best valuations in the US markets. 7x forward P/E is almost five times cheaper than Walmart, and this is a company that has grown revenues by 26% over three years and is guiding for roughly 35% eps growth over the next year.

None of that is priced in, hence the mind blowing PEG ratio of .30%
A PEG of 1 is considered cheap.

So policy fears have got the price of the stock in a vice grip.

Here's why in plain terms:
First Solar gets about 40% of its revenue from government tax credits for manufacturing in America. Those credits could shrink or disappear depending on who's in power and what they decide. On top of that, the company is waiting to see if new tariffs on Chinese solar materials actually go through before signing new contracts. The stock is cheap because investors are nervous about both. The business is great — the politics are the question mark.

So straight up. I think this stock is terribly mispriced. This is the explanation as to why (with a little help from Claude):

Here's what matters:

Republicans like tariffs on China more than Democrats do. The same administration that solar bulls worry about on tax credits is the most aggressive on trade barriers in modern history. Section 232 on polysilicon derivatives and the Section 337 IP investigation against Chinese TOPCon imports are both live right now, under this administration.

So the two policy risks actually hedge each other across parties:

Republicans — might trim solar credits, but will maintain or increase the tariff wall against Chinese panels. First Solar keeps its pricing power even if the subsidy shrinks, because the competition can't get in.

Democrats — would preserve or expand credits, but might soften China trade posture. Credits offset any pricing pressure from increased Chinese competition.

The only scenario that actually kills FSLR is both at once — credits stripped AND tariffs dropped. A Republican Congress gutting domestic manufacturing credits while simultaneously letting Chinese solar in duty-free. That combination contradicts itself politically. The members protecting factory jobs in Ohio aren't voting to let Chinese competitors undercut those same factories.

That's why this is mispriced. The market is treating the two risks as additive when they're actually inverse. And First Solar is the one US solar company that benefits from the tariff wall most directly, because it doesn't use polysilicon at all — its thin-film process completely sidesteps the input that tariffs are targeting.

More: The genuine pause is also real, but it's the customer side. A utility developer planning a 2028 project needs to commit to panels now because lead times are long. But that developer also finances the project with debt, and rates haven't come down. So the developer's internal rate of return model may not clear hurdle, and they wait. That's real demand deferral, not sandbagging, and First Solar can't fix it by cutting price because they're already sold out at current capacity.

Here's the thing that tells you which one dominates. They reaffirmed guidance. Revenue $4.9-5.2B, EBITDA $2.6-2.8B, unchanged. If the booking pause were a genuine demand problem threatening near-term results, guidance would have moved. It didn't. The backlog they already have covers the guidance window. The bookings they're withholding are 2028-2029 vintage contracts that don't affect 2026 or 2027 revenue.

So the honest read is: management is sandbagging on future bookings to capture better pricing, the tape is punishing them for it because the headline number looks soft, and you're buying a stock that is down 33% partly because the CEO is playing his hand well and the market can't tell the difference between discipline and weakness.

The risk that remains after you accept all of that: what if Section 232 doesn't land, rates stay elevated, and the booking window reopens into a weaker pricing environment than management expected? Then they waited for leverage that never arrived, and the next booking cycle prices at or below today's levels rather than above. That outcome doesn't kill the company — the backlog still carries them — but it kills the upside catalyst that justifies paying attention now rather than later.

At $205 with that backlog and balance sheet, I think you're being paid for that risk. But I wanted you to see the scenario where the sandbagging thesis is right on intent and wrong on outcome.

Man, I like you BB88
One day I want to buy you a beer

FWIW, StalkTalk loves FSLR, thinks upcoming earnings will rip in favor of solar. His cost basis is 230-something.

Thx for the reminder to get in this one

NXT is not a terrible chart in solar.

They have essentially no debt.