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Live - Semiannual monetary report to congress

Posted on 3/7/23 at 10:07 am
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38423 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 10:07 am
LINK


Fascinating listen.

Rates are going to be higher than originally anticipated.

Powell admitted that if history repeats, unemployment rate could be around 7% based on their actions.

Stock market did not like what was said. down 200 points so far.
Posted by saint tiger225
San Diego
Member since Jan 2011
46422 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 10:34 am to
John Kennedy and Elizabeth Warren asking questions today...


Pretty sure Powell was laughing in his head at both of those idiots.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38423 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 11:13 am to
quote:

Pretty sure Powell was laughing in his head at both of those idiots.


You can read his body language and know he detests these political shows.

What about the rant about their not being any Latinos represented in the federal reserve? Like what the frick does race have to do with anything? So sickening to listen to.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57978 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 11:27 am to
quote:

Powell admitted that if history repeats, unemployment rate could be around 7% based on their actions.


In other words, we should expect 10% Unemployment.
Posted by LSUtoBOOT
Member since Aug 2012
19270 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 12:00 pm to
TL/DW: the federal government is angry at corporations for making record profits by exploiting the policies the federal government put in place.
Posted by TigerFanatic99
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
34779 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

Powell admitted that if history repeats, unemployment rate could be around 7% based on their actions.



I would say there's no way democrats survive that, but just imagine the handouts they will be giving out by then, threatening that Republicans will shut off the chocolate fountain
Posted by Dirtyboro
Member since Jul 2014
717 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 1:39 pm to
Banks and hedgefunds have declared war on us. This move is the Fed’s way of supporting their paid overlords
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58519 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 1:42 pm to
I’m already the only person that still works how can they increase unemployment
This post was edited on 3/7/23 at 1:43 pm
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29304 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

Powell admitted that if history repeats, unemployment rate could be around 7% based on their actions.



This just doesn't make sense to me. There are 1.8 job openings for every person. To get to 7% unemployment would take a truly massive recession, and if they got it to 7%, there's no way it would stop there as the economy would be in free-fall by then and couldn't be stopped. We'd blow right past 7%.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38423 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 2:37 pm to
5% is what is considered to be a healthy market.

The term is called "frictional vacancy" using my commercial real estate vocabulary.

This is considered the optimal percentage for people to find new jobs and companies to get new employees.

People think 2%-3% unemployment is healthy for the economy and its not.

At the VERY LEAST, we need to return back to near 5% unemployment rate.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57978 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

This just doesn't make sense to me. There are 1.8 job openings for every person.


There's been a lot of chatter about how those numbers are horribly inaccurate, but then there's also this: LINK

quote:

As the Post frames it, the pullback of pandemic-related aid could pose a setback to the Biden administration's efforts to 'slash poverty' while building a 'healthier and more sustainable middle class' - none of which were the stated goals of the temporary aid.

"We saw positive benefits from this and less hardship, including for families with children," said Dottie Rosenbaum, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, who points out that all the free money helped reduce childhood poverty rates in 2021. "We can expect that to reverse now."

Following the reduction in benefits, the average SNAP recipient's benefits are expected to drop by around $90 per month, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. That said, an even greater reduction is in store for seniors and the working poor who receive assistance from other government programs, and will likely qualify for less.

In Kentucky, many seniors on food stamps saw their monthly benefit drop from $281 to $22 last year after the state ended the pandemic emergency in May, according to local food bank network, Feeding Kentucky.


What it may be is that many were simply sitting out of the workforce due to the extra benefits being just enough to allow them to do so.

If this ends up being the case, Unemployment is likely to shoot up faster than expected as people going back into the workforce after a long hiatus are suddenly competing for fewer jobs in a shrinking market but against those who kept working.
Posted by TorchtheFlyingTiger
1st coast
Member since Jan 2008
2920 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 3:34 pm to
Are the historic comparisons and unemployment goals adjusted to reflect revised unemployment methodology?

I remember a couple of administrations ago everyone complaining the real numbers were higher because of a revised method of estimating unemployment and counting more people as not participating in workforce. If we use the old #s would those target be more reasonably attainable?
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57978 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

Are the historic comparisons and unemployment goals adjusted to reflect revised unemployment methodology?


Likely not. Along that line, it wouldn't shock me to learn that one of the reasons they left rates so low for so long was due to not seeing home prices (which are measured now as Owner's Equivalent of Rent - OER) rising enough to believe the housing market was too hot.
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
50621 posts
Posted on 3/7/23 at 8:08 pm to
I’m mainly laughing at Warren.

She watched as America spent, borrowed, and eroded away purchasing power, but now she throws a hissy fit that someone dares to confront the inflation impact.

#TeamVolcker
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38423 posts
Posted on 3/8/23 at 3:32 pm to
LINK

Round two just posted.

It is so so so embarrassing how little our elected officials understand how an economy works.

Not many fireworks today.

Jpow thinks its possible all stable coins go to zero when (if) the USA has a CBDC. He also said he sees zero value in Bitcoin or ETH but admits he does not understand this asset class.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 3/8/23 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

It is so so so embarrassing how little our elected officials understand how an economy works.


I watched a few minutes of that circus before I finally had to turn the sound down and just use movement in the S&P as an impact gauge. I’m not sure that some of these clowns (on either side of the aisle) even know what the Fed does… and doesn’t do!

I will say one thing about Powell, unlike myself, his ability not to look at someone who asks a stupid question like they have two heads is an admirable trait.
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