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Started By
Message
Is “market” overvalued?
Posted on 5/7/20 at 10:34 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 10:34 am
S&P trading higher without any real fundamental data to support the rise from what I can tell.
Forward PE ratio is unknown.
I can’t tell what the relative value is. Seems to me that it has to be overvalued
Anyone else know?
Forward PE ratio is unknown.
I can’t tell what the relative value is. Seems to me that it has to be overvalued
Anyone else know?
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 10:36 am
10
Posted on 5/7/20 at 10:36 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
Anyone else know?
don’t know don’t care
there are dozens of individual stocks soaring right now
Posted on 5/7/20 at 10:54 am to SlidellCajun
It's been that way for a while now.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:07 am to SlidellCajun
I have 2 schools of thought.
1. Based on historical fundamentals it is probably overvalued but also with many unknowns.
2. Based on the fact that a stock is basically only worth what someone is willing to pay, it is valued exactly right for this exact moment in time.
1. Based on historical fundamentals it is probably overvalued but also with many unknowns.
2. Based on the fact that a stock is basically only worth what someone is willing to pay, it is valued exactly right for this exact moment in time.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:26 am to SlidellCajun
Given a 10 year treasury lower than 1%. The S&P 500 is massively undervalued
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:32 am to bod312
Well I like to be able to measure value. PE ratio, book value etc.
I don’t even know what the predicted forward PE ratio is for the S&P these days yet I see big moves day after day so it would seem reasonable to assume that the market is very risky right now.
I don’t even know what the predicted forward PE ratio is for the S&P these days yet I see big moves day after day so it would seem reasonable to assume that the market is very risky right now.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:35 am to SlidellCajun
The Buffett indicator, market cap divided by GDP, is at historic highs once again.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:11 pm to SlidellCajun
Duh Been that way for a while
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:17 pm to SlidellCajun
Check out the technology sector/index ratio lol people are chasing the tech momentum like they have for the past decade.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 12:58 pm to bod312
The argument that things are worth what people are willing to pay is true but isn't a good rationale for investing.
Tulips were valued until they weren't. I would argue a worthwhile investment has legitimate returns that are not dependent upon conventional wisdom. The worst investments are generally considered valuable but CW is wrong. The best investments are overlooked and undervalued but will be shown to be very worthwhile in the future.
Tulips were valued until they weren't. I would argue a worthwhile investment has legitimate returns that are not dependent upon conventional wisdom. The worst investments are generally considered valuable but CW is wrong. The best investments are overlooked and undervalued but will be shown to be very worthwhile in the future.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 1:04 pm to SlidellCajun
Does anyone know the real “value” of anything? Does anything have 1 “value”?
Posted on 5/7/20 at 1:07 pm to jimbeam
quote:
Does anyone know the real “value” of anything? Does anything have 1 “value”?
Sure
Value is a relative measure and if you look at historical measures of that value, you can get a good idea of what a reasonable value is
Posted on 5/7/20 at 2:34 pm to SlidellCajun
You said it. Forward PE ratio is impossible to predict with any certainty right now, so any opinion on whether the market is overvalued at this level is pure speculation, ever more so than usual.
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 5/7/20 at 7:52 pm to geauxpurple
Stocks are driven by earnings, ultimately. Many company's earnings are going to be down moving forward. Restaurants, movies, sports and more will be hurt. Restrictions on customer capacity will impact sales for many. Plus many people will be very reluctant to engage with crowds. We don't even begin to know all the ramifications at this point. But earnings for almost all companies will be hurt.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 8:01 pm to SlidellCajun
I think what this did more than anything is kill the local small business competition. With them out of the way the big boys that actually make up the market indexes will swoop in for even more of a share of total business.
It's disgusting, but that's my opinion on why the markets are doing fine as Mom and Pop fall.
It's disgusting, but that's my opinion on why the markets are doing fine as Mom and Pop fall.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 8:21 pm to tiger81
quote:
Stocks are driven by earnings, ultimately. Many company's earnings are going to be down moving forward. Restaurants, movies, sports and more will be hurt. Restrictions on customer capacity will impact sales for many. Plus many people will be very reluctant to engage with crowds. We don't even begin to know all the ramifications at this point. But earnings for almost all companies will be hurt.
Gov has essentially shown it’s willing to write blank checks.
I bet just as many people reluctant to go to crowds there are equal amount dying to get into crowds.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:36 pm to AMS
well if thats a case then that would mean a 50% reduction in foot traffic
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