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Is deflation on the horizon?

Posted on 6/10/22 at 10:58 am
Posted by Yaboylsu63
Member since Mar 2014
3243 posts
Posted on 6/10/22 at 10:58 am
Those smarter than me please explain what to expect. I was young for the 08 recession and didn’t have any skin in the game at the time.

But if we go into a recession (likely already are) and demand drops off due to high costs, we would typically see a reversal of inflation and actual deflation correct?

Would the subsequent deflation be huge or just a few percent and not really reflect in daily life?
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10993 posts
Posted on 6/10/22 at 11:04 am to
Can we just worry about one flation at a time?

Also, I'm going to go ahead and coin "Bideflation" right here and now.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
16056 posts
Posted on 6/10/22 at 11:20 am to
I don’t see it.

Energy prices are driving the bus now and unless supply is increased, I don’t think there’ll be any chance of deflation
Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
35884 posts
Posted on 6/10/22 at 11:43 am to
quote:

Is deflation on the horizon?


'Member a few months ago when the administration's economic advisers were saying they thought we were at peak inflation? The same people who said last year it was transitory? Yeah
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2195 posts
Posted on 6/10/22 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

Can we just worry about one flation at a time?


You win today sir. That's all I got.
Posted by TeaParty
Member since May 2022
935 posts
Posted on 6/10/22 at 3:34 pm to
Wait until the wheat shortage takes effect. That plus energy shitstorm
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
79382 posts
Posted on 6/11/22 at 7:58 am to
quote:

Member a few months ago when the administration's economic advisers were saying they thought we were at peak inflation?


"Experts" who literally had ONE job.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11869 posts
Posted on 6/11/22 at 9:21 am to
You understand consumer price increases =/= inflation right?
Posted by AndyJ
Member since Jul 2008
3454 posts
Posted on 6/11/22 at 9:27 am to
I think it’s an interesting question. I think most of us expect softening of inflation, but we generally do not expect prices to go down. We do expect the rate of increase to drop significantly eventually when inflation comes under control.

However, gas prices are a major piece driving inflation, so when gas prices plummet by 33% could that actually be enough to lead to deflation? Especially if other out of control prices happen to drop at the same time? Could prices on goods all actually drop rapidly enough that we get temporary deflation? I don’t know the answer, but it wasn’t as ridiculous a question as I first thought.

What happened in the 80s after soaring inflation?
This post was edited on 6/11/22 at 9:28 am
Posted by KillTheGophers
Member since Jan 2016
6748 posts
Posted on 6/11/22 at 12:53 pm to
I believe the FED will slow down any rate increases…maybe pull back on current target.

Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135726 posts
Posted on 6/11/22 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

But if we go into a recession (likely already are) and demand drops off due to high costs, we would typically see a reversal of inflation and actual deflation correct?
Correct.
Supply-demand is a major driver. If consumer demand falls, assuming supply doesn't fall to an equal or greater extent, pricing sees downward pressure. The deeper the recession the more likely that outcome.

OTOH, if despite this Administration's best efforts, we get at least some of the supply chain fixed, it will reduce sector pricing, recession or not.
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