- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: How will the market digest todays rate cut
Posted on 9/19/24 at 9:24 am to Bard
Posted on 9/19/24 at 9:24 am to Bard
quote:
Will the cut of .5 (and, if their goal is reached, a full point by the end of the year) really enough to do more than put a little more lipstick on that pig?
50 bips will slow the acceleration of interest expense but not the trajectory, sir, which is up only short of a radical reintroduction of ZIRP coupled with yield curve control.
0
Posted on 9/19/24 at 9:25 am to LChama
I’d say it’s currently digesting it pretty well
Posted on 9/19/24 at 9:46 am to Dav
3 reds and 15 greens, for now 
NVDA leading my charge, and V trying to crash the fun.
NVDA leading my charge, and V trying to crash the fun.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 9:58 am to LChama
It was anticipated and has already been baked into the cake.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:25 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:It is? Between (and including) 1929 and 1987, the Dow was down a total of 8 times. That is EIGHT TIMES in 58 years (less than 14% of the time).
I don’t have a link from 1929 or 1987, but suffice to say it is pretty well recognized that October was bad in those years.
quote:This has been true, but also not a very big sample size.
but when it is bad, it is extremely bad.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
Nasdaq is on a tear
Up 500 + 3%
Up 500 + 3%
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:32 pm to LChama
30% year for the S&P looking possible.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 12:50 pm to SM1010
My portfolio is up 7% today. BTC and MSTR
Posted on 9/19/24 at 1:24 pm to LChama
All dem boys banking on that HSA now wishing and hoping they get at least another year because they missed the boat on most of the stocks.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:33 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
It is? Between (and including) 1929 and 1987, the Dow was down a total of 8 times. That is EIGHT TIMES in 58 years (less than 14% of the time).
Yes, it very much is. The DOW is a minute portion of the market. The market was gangbusters last year and still down 3% in October. The market lost 7% in October 2018. Black Monday 1989, Black Monday 2.0 1989, 2008 global financial crisis, 1998 Asian financial crisis were all in October. It is the fourth worst performing month of the year for the S&P since 1928. I am not going to argue with you.
Eleven of the days in the month have averaged negative returns with October 19th historically being the worst day of the year (about 30% lower than the second worst day of the year) and October 22nd is tied for the second worst day of the year (based on returns of the S&P 500 since 1950). If you really cannot recognize that October is one of the weakest months of the year based on objective empirical historical data, I am certainly not going to change your mind with my simpleton posts.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 8:32 am
Posted on 9/20/24 at 5:27 am to go ta hell ole miss
Sounds like I need to buy more in October.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 7:58 am to OTIS2
I have been heavy in the S & P 500 since February. It sounds like I need to rebalance (my 401K.) That is to say lock up some gains.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 8:27 am to OTIS2
Sounds like I need to buy more in October.
If you want to time the market then yes. Especially since it comes after September, which is the worst month of the year historically.
If you want to time the market then yes. Especially since it comes after September, which is the worst month of the year historically.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 8:36 am to go ta hell ole miss
I find your post interesting.
Past data gathered from historic months do not provide any "information" with any predictive value about future months. That is to say that preceding Octobers exert no pressure on future Octobers to conform to probability.
In my opinion October 2024 is a distinct month, not a continuation of any objective empirical historical data.
Past data gathered from historic months do not provide any "information" with any predictive value about future months. That is to say that preceding Octobers exert no pressure on future Octobers to conform to probability.
In my opinion October 2024 is a distinct month, not a continuation of any objective empirical historical data.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:11 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:In the time period you prescribed - cherry-picked to include the 2 worst days of all time - October is STILL only down 14% of the time. Your claim does not hold up.
Yes, it very much is. The DOW is a minute portion of the market. The market was gangbusters last year and still down 3% in October. The market lost 7% in October 2018. Black Monday 1989, Black Monday 2.0 1989, 2008 global financial crisis, 1998 Asian financial crisis were all in October. It is the fourth worst performing month of the year for the S&P since 1928. I am not going to argue with you.
quote:So now you're talking about INDIVIDUAL DAYS in a month? Holy moving goalposts. Not to mention actually changing the range of dates you were insisting on in the first place.
Eleven of the days in the month have averaged negative returns with October 19th historically being the worst day of the year (about 30% lower than the second worst day of the year) and October 22nd is tied for the second worst day of the year (based on returns of the S&P 500 since 1950). If you really cannot recognize that October is one of the weakest months of the year based on objective empirical historical data, I am certainly not going to change your mind with my simpleton posts.
The fact remains: in the date range you provided, October is the 4th worst month. OK, great. If we expand the range to 1900 - 2023, October climbs all the way to 7th best. Buy and hold investors don't (and shouldn't) recognize October as much of anything more than an irrelevant blip.
quote:Just not sure which "obective empirical historical data" you are citing. Why are you so dug in on defending a whimsical claim that isn't true? It's OK to make mistakes.
If you really cannot recognize that October is one of the weakest months of the year based on objective empirical historical data, I am certainly not going to change your mind with my simpleton posts
Here's what's true: over most date ranges, October is in the bottom half of months. (Still begs the question of sample size). However, your claim about September is correct - it's basically always last.
Your specific claim was that "October is not usually a good month for markets". Despite the fact that we can list SOME Octobers that were dreadful, that has nothing to do with "usually". Why overstate your case?
quote:And there are many years in the date range in which October was up for the year while the overall market was down.
The market was gangbusters last year and still down 3% in October.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:27 am to CharleyLake
quote:
I find your post interesting. Past data gathered from historic months do not provide any "information" with any predictive value about future months. That is to say that preceding Octobers exert no pressure on future Octobers to conform to probability. In my opinion October 2024 is a distinct month, not a continuation of any objective empirical historical data.
Of course every year is different. I agree and I am sure almost everyone on this board agrees that every year is different. I place very little value on monthly historical data (admittedly, I did leverage some money for this month in anticipation of a drop, which only materialized for a brief period early in the month, but generally I do not), it is simply a data point to consider. But someone suggested October is historically a bad month. When someone else questioned at assertion, I simply provided data to support the position that October is historically the fourth weakest month of the year and sees some drastic downturns.
Sell in May and go away would have cost people a ton of money this year.
During election years, the market historically does very well. During an election year before 2008, the market never had a double digit loss. If you used that data for your investment strategy in 2008, you got smoked because the S&P 500 was down 37%.
This post was edited on 9/22/24 at 12:49 am
Posted on 9/21/24 at 10:00 am to LChama
With current debt levels and political pressure the Fed cannot keep rates high…despite the fact that doing so would probably be better off for the long term to flush out distortions caused by cheap money. Want to know why PE is buying everything or why home prices have exploded over the last 5 years (or any asset that can be purchased on credit)? That’s why.
Long term lower rates are positive for asset pricing. The short term wil be choppy but as the Fed continues to cut it will be bullish for assets over the long term. That’s my take anyway.
Long term lower rates are positive for asset pricing. The short term wil be choppy but as the Fed continues to cut it will be bullish for assets over the long term. That’s my take anyway.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 10:50 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Black Monday 1989, Black Monday 2.0 1989, 2008 global financial crisis, 1998 Asian financial crisis were all in October. It is the fourth worst performing month of the year for the S&P since 1928. I am not going to argue with you.
The big question is whether there's something about October or was it just a coincidence that those events happened in October.
As opposed to September which had a black swan event (the 9/11 attacks) unrelated to the general economic environment.
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News